I found this article interesting as it reflects a noticed change in actions by Americans due to rising gas prices. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25248247/ The article finds that there are recent identifiable trends wherein Americans are looking far more closely and acting at buying homes wherein the commute to work will be dramatically less than before. Simultaneously, American transit has seen significant increases in ridership as gas prices have increased. This has long been the trend in Europe and Japan where gas prices have been dramatically higher than the US for decades.....and where there is significant dependance on forms of public transportation for work commutes versus dependance on private cars. Of course the US is far larger and more expansive than either Japan or the individual nations of Europe. How long this trend might continue is anyone's guess.
I spotted this awhile back and made a thread on it, good observation. I think this is definitely the intention of the world's puppeteers. It's easier to control people and it closes the gap on the middle class. I've never read anything about the subject of sprawl on a deeper level, definitely something that interests me though.
Nate: I think the article focuses on individual decisions and a close look at them finds that the decision makers (the individuals) are making cost/benefit analyses and market decisions. I've been interested in this phenomena for a life time, studied it in college, and, and participated in it for a couple of years when I worked for a govt. contractor, of which one component was a transit oriented group focused on developing bus/transit lines. The work wasn't my cup of tea as I'm more of a business man than a contractor.....and you might call govt regs. about stuff like this...the "civil engineer full employment act" IMV....but it was interesting to see....and there is a lot of literature on sprawl and its impact if you search for it. People definitely make market decisions on where they wish to live; a bigger house with more land in the outer suburbs (at a lower price) with a longer commute or a smaller residence in close with less of a commute. Governments step in with efforts to create transit....but the bulk of decision making comes from individuals. That article reflects the same kind of buyer decisions when gas prices go up -> people buy smaller cars.....and when gas prices are lower they buy hummers. Right now, I'd characterize the article more as current and short term phenomena more than anything else. If gas prices stay high for a longer term, I'd bet the trend will accelerate.
I studied business (finance and accounting) and I studied urban planning. This topic definitely falls under the urban planning area.
This trend is extreme here in Jacksonville. We're notable as the largest city in the continental U.S., and the suburbs even started encroaching across county lines in the '90s-06 bubble. The Northside or Westside is 25 miles and across a river from downtown or the other commercial center, and house prices have been in free-fall for the last two years. We bought a house in 2006 about halfway between the newer commercial zones and old downtown (about 3-5 miles each way) - and we haven't seen any dips in housing prices here. Our old '50s homes are doing fine in a weak market, but some people with brand new homes twice the size but 20-30 miles from us are in big trouble. Its kind of funny, when these houses were built they were for navy enlistees and they were literally "way out behind the farms." Now its in the exact middle.
Sprawl is major here in Phoenix also. I believe it's more geography than anything else though. 30 years ago Pheonix was surrounded by desert for a hundred miles in every direction. Now you can drive a hundred miles across the valley from Buckeye to Gold Canyon and never leave the city. I hear Vegas is similar.
Not in the near term it won't, but it will cause the death of the SUV and other egregious gas guzzling contraptions.
And here is yet another market response to high gas prices (and probably concerns about the environment) http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080620/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_prices_mowing hand powered lawn mowers!!!! My experience is that they are fine for smaller lawns. If you have a big lawn or one where you have to mow up hills.....either get REAL strong....or get a gas powered mower that drives that devil and helps you up hills.....or be like the guy that cut back from two cuts a week to one.
I think what we're gonna see as far as age is concerned, is the younger generations, basically anyone who is still WORKING, buying homes in or very near city limits; and the suburban, soccermom type areas will probably be shifted into baby-boomer playground nests.