I think we are going to see at least another 3 quarters of downturn, here in the UK I wouldn't say the recession has really started to "bite" - despite the picture the media like to paint, sure there have been job losses but not on a horrific scale, as of yet.I think we will see deflation of ~-1.5-2.5 by Autumn which should then begin to ease and return to low and slow growth by mid 2010
We all hope the economies (across the globe) will recover ASAP, but that is highly unlikley to happen. My personal opinion is that the recovery process will take 18-36 months maybe more dependent on a few factors such as when employers start employing again, when the stock markets begin recovering etc ...
No one can predict the future and no one knows what will happen in a month from now. But I do believe, all people want it to recover as soon as possible. - Dynashox -
LOL .. recover ... it will be a long time - the regulation required for business to have confidence in the banking industry again will mean significant change in both local and international banking law. These changes are not going to be welcomed all around the world, so you can expect some resistance - afterall, not everyones approach to the quick measures has been the same. Recovery has to happen at multiple levels - and in a global economy, across a large number of countries whose needs and priorities are different. The impact of recession pushes the needs to get costs down further and further to compete, not only against other businesses, but against other economies as a whole - the use of cheap labour increases, the use of local labour in more afluent countries such as the US and UK decreases, reducing further the much needed injection of cash into the retail sectors - which, in fact feeds the manufacturing businesses in the cheaper labour markets - it is a Self Destructive cycle. Almost more important to the recovery is the re-establishment of trust - between the public and the banks - in how they can make so much profit, and yet cause so much calamity and the decision makers not held responsible. This needs to be underpinned by an understanding of Credit - explained in ways that can be clearly understood by the General Public - no more hidden terms and conditions, no more secret charges or increases, or spend what you cannot afford ... which, we can only hope, will change the habits of the majority of a nation more concerned with "Get it Now" than "Pay for it Later"... There is much work to be done - between the Government and banks to ensure the correct regulation to protect what is more and more public money invested in the banking systems - between Government and Government to ensure international trading and financial agreements and regulations are not only in place, but also enforced. Recovery will be a long term thing - locally, we may see signs in the High Street towards the back end of 2009, early 2010 - my fear is that this will be stimulated by deflation and the pre-Christmas rush - but, if the right steps are in place, and G20 can deliver some agreement, maybe recovery can be accellerated and stabalised from that platform... Just my 2c
let's see...it depends which country or continent economy...china is doing great now so...i guess US and Europe will recover at the late 2011..or never?
I think we will slowly start to see improvements towards the end of this year into 2010. But I think the effects of the damage done will last for much longer than this.