I have a forum like most of you, and I am curious to know how you can tell that a forum is on the right track, and that it will eventually lead to a successful busy forum.
I should think the correct people start appearing and there are good discussions going on. A few of such good discussions can lead to more people and the forum will start expanding.
Yes, I agree with what the others are saying. Returning members are a good gauge that a forum has something to offer. Another reasonable gauge I have found is a steady flow of unsolicited sign ups from people who post an introduction. If people post an introduction, they usually go on to return and contribute more.
Talk to them, ask them questions, give them a reason to return, run a game relevant to the forum topic that will engage them, ask them to contribute to a thread that requires little or no thought or work - try it, you'll be surprised how many people actually respond to a friendly nudge
:O I have to say thats a very specific sign, and quite true in most cases. Our forums has a majority of returning members, but they usually just comeback just to download the new released episodes, and they don't really post. Well, yeah right now its not really active even when I'm there lol.
When you see a steady increase in activity and member signup without having to do extra promotion. I call it critical mass.
There is no shortcut to creating an active and popular forum. As for the activity. Like others have said, when your forum is active and discussions are going on without your involvement, when members are returning to check the forum actively. The success of your forum also depends on what you want to class as success. Set yourself goals, some people consider a few members to be successful for a starting forum, others are more ambitious and want 100s. If you want more help you can check out my forum - http://www.adminfuel.com
Good members which seem to be online all the time on the forum and keep posting useful topics and posts.
When it shows that members are starting to know each other well, make suggestions, and when you have a couple really unique and sometimes odd members that make your forum special.