Legendary Funds Manager Julian Robertson Predicts Utter Global Collapse Stemming From Bursting of Property Bubble
I know things in the property market are bad and will get worse but everything collapsing....? It does read a bit funny.
There is something wierd and actually sort of dangerous I suppose about taking the worst doom and gloom article by some guy and posting it on the web so millions can access it. Predicting the future is pretty tough/impossible. Its pretty refreshing to see the first two comments above describing the article as "funny". That makes it more disarming. Regardless the financial issues are bad. Its spreading. I was reading about this weeks collapse of a very arcane reasonably large series of funds based on auctions and constant auctions....wherein interest rates are reset. This week it collapsed. It can impact borrowers that weren't part of this housing crisis, including student loan funds, governments, museums, etc. that have borrowing. By example, if my memory is correct by collapse of the auction funds, one institution, the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey, is having its interest payments on about $100 million restructured from about 5% to 20%. It seems this is temporary. The article referenced that weekly payments would grow from something in the $80,000/week to $380,000/week basis. I understand that it is adjustable. Geez; stuff like that ends up in a lot of people being fired or a total cut back in maintenance. Its never good. That would be great...they could fire some toll takers/some bridge and tunnel cops, the guys that quickly remove stalled cars and trucks because this damn financial instrument went bonkers and the penalty is so severe. There was evidently some effort to regulate this type of fund that never got enacted. Holders of the debt were told the funds were virtually equivalent to cash/liquidity. But with these auctions now terminated for the short term.....the liquidity isn't there. Meanwhile, though the holders get the higher interest rates, I assume. Lots of f*cked up wierd sophisticated financial instruments that are out there. This stuff needs to be reworked.
Still more ARMs to reset, as well as collateralized credit card debt that may go down the tube. We're not even halfway through this.
Actually we are, the worst of the subprime and homes prices peak came between the years 2005-2007 assuming that arms are set for 2 years 2009 looks like it will be the bottom.
I think the economic picture will be ugly, but I do not foresee any utter global economic collapse in the making. We would get some recessions, maybe a bit more serious and longer than usual, but that's all. This is just the economics cycle at work......