United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #1501
    Can someone give me an estimate here of what the worst case realistic scenario is for the economy and when it could happen?

    If it was posted before i apologize.
     
    ncz_nate, Apr 28, 2008 IP
  2. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1502
    We could go into massive f--kall depression, and end up jobless, broke, our government collapsing in on itself, and our military unable to keep working because the government is in too much debt.

    Then we would all starve.

    But that's worst case scenario. Realistic? Scarily, it might be if we keep spending all the money we don't have. Debt based governments are not a good idea.
     
    Jackuul, Apr 28, 2008 IP
  3. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1503
    That's the trillion dollar question pal. I could paint an apocalyptic picture for you but how realistic it would be, who knows?

    Things are not going well. You have to remember, the system has more diversity and "brakes" now. Of course, it is also a much bigger mess than it has ever been before in history.

    If you go back to the Great Depression, it came in waves of failure, mistakes and exploitation. It took years to reach full bloom. Prior to that, they didn't call economic downturns Depressions or Recessions. They called them "Panics". Because they came and went quickly.

    The market is like mother nature. It only puts up with so much, before it hits back.
     
    guerilla, Apr 28, 2008 IP
  4. archetekt

    archetekt Active Member

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    #1504
    Remember the Y2K scare? There's going to be economic collapse and anarchy, nothing happened.

    Remember the "Coming Depression" books in the early 90's, Howard Ruff's one I recall? A minor recession happened.

    The media is trying to scare us into believing that we need the democrats socialistic programs to save us.
     
    archetekt, Apr 28, 2008 IP
  5. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1505
    So, being further in debt than ever before in history... means nothing?
     
    Jackuul, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  6. korr

    korr Peon

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    #1506
    If so, they've got the federal reserve and international currency markets in on the plot. The dollar is at an all time low, if for no other reason but because of all the government spending programs that have gone on funded by debt. Of course, it doesn't help that the U.S. banking system built its depository reserves out of mortgage & credit derivatives.

    Realistically Nate, prices are going up - a lot more than they already have. The stimulus check, the bank bailouts, the most recent policy decisions will cause further dollar weakness for at least another half year.

    Business might be able to bounce back by cutting wages or holding off cost of living increases, but the fundamental end of it is that America as a whole will have less purchasing power in the world market.
     
    korr, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  7. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1507
    Unless Ron Paul wins through a chaos theory event that lets him.

    Giants beat the Pats.
     
    Jackuul, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  8. korr

    korr Peon

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    #1508
    Well Ron Paul wants to legalize competing asset-backed currencies, so that would probably actually speed up the demise of the dollar! I guess his fiscal policies would put some value back in the greenback, but investors would be drawn in to private currencies quicker than they came to the dollar.
     
    korr, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  9. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1509
    Not if our ability to compete is restored with the elimination of strangling taxes.
     
    Jackuul, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  10. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1510
    Even if Ron is in, it would still be a lot of suffering before the economy gets back to a stable and growing path again. In the short run Ron's policy would cause extreme pain.

     
    wisdomtool, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  11. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1511
    I don't think Ron's policies would cause extreme pain in the short run.

    As he's said, getting out of Iraq, and sending the world the message that America is cleaning house, getting it's books in order would see a big swing in perception on the financial markets.
     
    guerilla, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1512
    It's going to be hard for the Fed to maintain the housing bubble considering that fact that many mortgages are going into negative equity. Increased inflation will also mean more preople will have problems keeping up with their mortgages.

    Number of US homes facing foreclosure jumps 112 percent in first quarter from 2007

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/foreclosure_rates.html

    The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities fell by 12.7 percent in February versus last year, the largest decline since its inception in 2001. Half of the cities saw home values plunge by double digits led by Las Vegas at 22.8 percent and Miami at 21.7 percent.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080429/home_prices.html
     
    bogart, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  13. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1513
    How are all your gold holdings doing? I know that my gold shorts are minting me [depreciating] gold bars. Crazy. Gold has a date with $800.
     
    smatts9, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  14. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1514
    I'm looking for a trough to buy in.
     
    guerilla, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  15. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1515
    OPEC President:
    OPEC President Sees $200 Oil Possible
     
    smatts9, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  16. tampa_man_33

    tampa_man_33 Peon

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    #1516
    Well most peoples wealth was in the equity of their homes which is now declined dramatically. The price of gas is a trickle effect and most of the money people are spending goes to these oil companies and not back into other consumer goods. It is pretty bad you can call it whatever you want but it is not good.
     
    tampa_man_33, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  17. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1517
    Sure... Yesterday. We've pretty much bottomed out and have no where left to go but up.

    Again, assuming the fed actually raised interest rates.
     
    Mia, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  18. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1518
    Or we could continue going down until the real bottom of absolute 0.
     
    Jackuul, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  19. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1519
    lol, we do actually have tangible assets.
     
    smatts9, Apr 29, 2008 IP
  20. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #1520
    The way I see it, the worst level is when the dollar becomes the same value as the Yen.

    Gas will be 150 dollars a gallon.

    The economy will have a dow average of just a thousand.

    NASDAQ will cease to function.

    The gears of U.S. industry will grind to a halt.

    The troops, with a bankrupted military will need to buy their own way back to the U.S.

    All because our administration is filled with total idiots and we entrust the fed. I am preparing myself for the days ahead when the internet shuts down because the ISP companies go bankrupt - since they will have no customers.

    Bleak? Yes. But, if we really do bankrupt the nation and become insolvent... is this the worst that could happen... or will we all be trying to go to Mexico and Canada for jobs?

    I love doomsday thinking :p
     
    Jackuul, Apr 29, 2008 IP
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