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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. tbarr60

    tbarr60 Notable Member

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    #101
    Maybe with a little age or at least time living in an fixed abode rather than "living out of car" you will understand that real estate has more ups than downs and over time has a steady upward climb in a channel bound by ever rising upper and lower limits. Graph housing prices against income over the last 50 years and you might understand that it is always good to buy real estate, sometimes it is great.

    Bookmark this and look at in 5, 10, 20, and 50 years. :D
     
    tbarr60, Jan 5, 2008 IP
  2. ferret77

    ferret77 Heretic

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    #102
    total BS, anyone who bought in the past couple years, in bubbly areas, is going to get seriously hosed, and could have made way more just keeping money in the bank or mutual funds, for probably years to come

    over 50 years, maybe different

    I know you are old but pleas to authority via age are just weak, the world is full of dumb ass old people

    so how much do you think the average sale price of house in orange county will decrease in the next year?
     
    ferret77, Jan 5, 2008 IP
  3. usasportstraining

    usasportstraining Notable Member

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    #103
    Why do they often take on a *1 year? Maybe the recession will take place in 2011! :eek:
     
    usasportstraining, Jan 5, 2008 IP
  4. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #104
    every US recession since 1960 has started with a housebuilding downturn and a similar cycle in predicted for 2008-10

    List of US Recession since 1945
    1945 Duration: 8 months
    1948 - 1949 Duration: 11 months
    1953 - 1954 - Duration: 10 months
    1957 - 1958 Duration: 8 months
    1960 - 1961 Duration: 10 months
    1969 - 1970 Duration: 11 months
    1973 - 1975 Duration: 16 months
    1981 - 1982 Duration: 16 months
    1990-1991 (July 1990 to March 1991)
    2001 (March 2001 to November 2001)
     
    bogart, Jan 5, 2008 IP
  5. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #105
    A recession is fine, if the currency is sound. It's a natural function of the market to purge bad credit and investment from the system.

    Unfortunately, this is not going to be allowed to occur naturally. The dollar is very close to a collapse, and people are just waking up to it. Hopefully they can get to their politicians first.
     
    guerilla, Jan 5, 2008 IP
  6. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #106
    There is a huge risk that the subprime lenders may shift the bad loans onto freddie mac or fanny mae. Or worse, that the Fed buts the subprime securities at face value. That could turn a mild recession into a deep one.
     
    bogart, Jan 6, 2008 IP
  7. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #107
    The problem is, the FED has limited tools to work with.

    Basically, they can manipulate the interest rate and increase monetary velocity, to bolster spending, but this will only shift the bad credit elsewhere.

    The government cannot finance the losses with future debt via deficit spending, because it will increase the monetary supply further, weakening the dollar even more, and risking a collapse.

    None of this can address market fundamentals, the viability and quality of the investments. All it can do is cover it up or spread it.

    Bogart, did you catch Ron Paul talking about oil last night?
     
    guerilla, Jan 6, 2008 IP
  8. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #108
    I didn't catch that. What did he say?

    Another point is that the economy is not uniform throughout the US. Housing is not going to crash in states like Texas because prices are already low. Unemployment is high in Michigan and Ohio but low in the West and Virginia.
     
    bogart, Jan 6, 2008 IP
  9. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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  10. tbarr60

    tbarr60 Notable Member

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    #110
    It appears that you are younger and less experienced then you originally tried to portray. Maybe you haven't paid rent or filled out a 1040 form (not the 1040EZ but a real 1040) but you will understand the difference between real estate and "keeping money in the bank". And hey my age is considered to be the new thirty something these days.

    It seems like children these days don't understand data and trends. Find me a 10 year window where money invested in real estate went down in value. You won't find one but you might learn about data and trends.

    Orange County values may go up this year and they will definitely stay within the rising 7% channel.
     
    tbarr60, Jan 6, 2008 IP
  11. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #111
    Yeah, but your property is not appreciating as fast as the monetary supply is growing, or as fast as inflation, or relative to commodities, or relative to the value of the dollar in foreign exchange.

    Anyone who thinks a 7% return is decent, is a sucker in today's market.
     
    guerilla, Jan 6, 2008 IP
  12. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #112
    7% return is a joke when you consider inflation, cost of living, devaluation of the dollar, real estate trend which is going down, taxes, taxes and taxes (that keep going up). Things don't look too good right now.
     
    guru-seo, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  13. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #113

    But how many house building downturns were preceded by a housing bubble?
    I believe you had housing companies build houses as fast as they good to take advantage of rising prices which created an excess supply. You would of had a downturn in price at some point regardless of the condition of the economy.
     
    soniqhost.com, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  14. cosmos

    cosmos Peon

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    #114
    Please read the sign , we learn how to avoid a depression. We know how to print paper money, it is call "borrowing to the federal bank" .
    Check out last time it was in December several billions
    A small recession maybe , a depression no way.
     
    cosmos, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  15. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #115
    That might be fine if the economy existed in a vacuum, but it does not. You can't keep diluting the monetary supply in an export dependent economy. You'll get hyperinflation.
     
    guerilla, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  16. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #116
    The real deals are right now and over the next 4 - 6 months...
     
    Mia, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  17. ferret77

    ferret77 Heretic

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    #117
    ok how about this, I will tell you the reasons I think the real deals won't be for a couple years and then you can tell me the reasons the deals are right now, and we can compare which ones make more sense

    here are mine

    1) Arm resets

    [​IMG]

    most toxic ARM loans won't be out of the system until 2011, as ARMs reset people who can't refinance dump there houses through short sales or foreclosures, causes prices to go down, I don't think prices will go up or even stop going down till they are out of the system

    Also a forclosure takes sometime 6 months+ to go through, so the house some guys topped making payments today, might not be dumped on the market for 6 months

    2) Historic bubbles

    [​IMG]

    Notice how every other housing boom except for the one after WW2, the bust took around the same amount of time as boom

    Now granted the WW2 boom is different, but playing the averages this bust should last around as long as the boom, there has been a 6-7 year boom and about 1.5 year bust so far.

    The odds are the bust will continue for at least a few more years

    OK MIA tell me why right now is the time to buy, what is reasoning behind this statement?

    Why do most ecomomists think it will last for years but you seem to know the worst is over?
     
    ferret77, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  18. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #118
    You know what they say, they higher you go the bigger the fall. I agree with you and Mia is giving BAD BAD advice! This is just the start of the fall. It will get worse! We'll come back to this post in 6-8 months and remind Mia how wrong he was. Sick of this guy trolling around pretending to know it all only to be proven time and time again that he is clueless!
     
    guru-seo, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  19. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #119
    Because homes are cheap and interest rates are low as hell.. Buyers are willing to negotiate on price so you stand an even better chance of getting an even better deal. The market is so flooded right now, unless someone is not interested in selling, you can pretty much name your price. And, if you have the cash, you are better off financing given the LOW LOW LOW interest rates...

    It's an absolutely perfect time to buy and it will only continue to get better.

    Because most economists let emotion and their own political agenda get in the way of basic economic theory...

    The worst of what is over? I don't think anything ever went bad...
     
    Mia, Jan 7, 2008 IP
  20. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #120
    Did you just change your tune from a couple of posts ago??? Flip flopping huh? So by your own admission if "and it will only continue to get better" why should people buy now? Is this the philosophy you use when you run your business? Explains a lot. If you would only listen to your own advice...
     
    guru-seo, Jan 7, 2008 IP
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