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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1001
    With headlines like "Government Benefit Programs in Trouble" , "Consumer Confidence Plunges in March" it seemed that the news media is already preparing the public for a recession.
    SEMrush
     
    wisdomtool, Mar 25, 2008 IP
    SEMrush
  2. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1002
    Don't forget, "Dollar tanking..." :(

     
    guerilla, Mar 25, 2008 IP
  3. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1003
    There's a lot of feel good mentality right now. But how many more investment banks may go down.

    Merrill Lynch may be the next 'Bear Stearns'

    JPMorgan forecast Merrill would write down an additional $2.1 billion of subprime debt, leading to a loss in the first quarter.

    Merrill had $24.4 billion of mortgage-related write-downs in 2007, among the most on Wall Street, according to a Reuters tally.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080325...jpmorgan_dc;_ylt=AsqagSTylhqs1U1Vt.t7RjeyBhIF

    The housing market does not look good for 2008

    US$512 billion in adjustable rate subprime mortgage loans will reset in the first six months of 2008.

    The weaker job market, inflation and lower dollar (higher cost of living) as well as declining home values spell more foreclosures in 2008.

    Many loans due to reset in 2008 have piggyback loans that finance 100 percent of the value of the home in 2006 and many of these homes have negative equity.
     
    bogart, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  4. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1004
    Not actually, I feel it is just a candle in the wind.....one more investment bank down and that's it. No amount of rate cuts or bailouts is going to help.

    It is still a long way to go before the housing surplus run up by the excesses of the entire decade and more is being digested and absorb. Till then I think cash, other than USD :) should prove to be a better holding.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  5. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1005
    After the Presidential election things will get worse.
     
    bogart, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  6. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1006
    IMHO, Fed is trying to stall the inevitable to make sure that they happen only after the Presidential elections. But from what I see it is just a matter of time before all hell breaks lose. Things may start to worsen even before the elections.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  7. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1007
    The tax rebates should kick in during June for around $1200 per family certain restrictions apply

    Oil is back at $102 due to the weak dollar.

    China is hurting right now and there should be another revaluation of the Yuan soon which will add to US inflation
     
    bogart, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  8. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1008
    The $1200 is printed money, Bernanke has already thrown tons of money into the big grinding machine Wall Street. By Jun, I do not know how much is the exchange rate given the enormous amount of paper money being out there.

    Oil will continue to rise as Fed keeps printing money, inflation will continue to go up and more so as Fed cuts interest rates.

    It is a matter of time that Yuan has to appreciate against the dollar, their inflation at home was huge and the poor suffered far more than the rich. China cannot afford such social unrest.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  9. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1009
    bogart, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  10. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1010
    Bogart, thats really an understatement, this is the worse period I had ever seen since I know how to monitor economic indices.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  11. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1011
    The big one is the jobs reports. If unemployment gets out of hand things will blow.
     
    smatts9, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #1012
    The Unemployment insurance weekly claim report will be released Friday March 27

    The Employment Report for March 2008 is scheduled to be released on
    Friday, April 4, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
     
    bogart, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  13. LinkSales

    LinkSales Active Member

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    #1013
    As much as we talk doom and gloom, I really think the market will do fine, probably rebound in the fall.

    We're going to drop heavily from now until May to June when the $500 Billion printing press known as the Fed works its inflation magic to prop up the stock markets. The economy looks like shit, but corporate earnings are still going to look fine, which keeps people happy.

    Later this summer we'll see the effect of the economic stimulus package and the Fed's auctions of billions in credit. Corporate earnings will look great, durable goods orders will turn right around, but the value of the dollar will drop like a rock. The market will drop until these economic indicators get turned around by inflation. Because the markets are priced in dollars, the economy will look great to anyone not yet privy to how the market works. Gold, silver, and oil are going to new highs when all of this new credit/stimulus hits the market.

    Sigh, glad I bought silver by the pounds and put hefty spot orders on silver after this recent fall. I'm looking for $25-$30 an ounce by year end. At this rate, Silver will be funding my college education. :) Bring on the inflation.
     
    LinkSales, Mar 26, 2008 IP
  14. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1014
    That's quite possible. Economic distress is not dependent upon a weak stock market.

    The problem is, and will continue to be, whatever looks good, is priced in nominal, fiat currency. As smatts joked recently, we could all be billionaires. Of course, it could be in an economy where it costs $1 million to get a coffee.

    Silver is such a good buy right now. Just remember it's a hedge, you're betting against inflation, not for a "real" profit.

    Great post.
     
    guerilla, Mar 27, 2008 IP
  15. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #1015
    Even though we all know things are bad and most likely will get worse I really do hope for the sake of humanity, we all come to our senses, clean house and fix our economical situation, pull out of Iraq, stop the bleeding and get back on track to RE-building this country that has been divided and destroyed under King Bush for the last 8 years. I believe people as a whole have the potential to do great things, it is unfortunate that once in a while we have a few party poopers that spoil the party for everybody, such is the case with this "party" a bunch of neocon traitors got ahold of our government and took it for an expensive ride. We must change things or we'll be doomed to failure.
     
    guru-seo, Mar 27, 2008 IP
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  16. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #1016
    This is common sense but somehow or other common sense seemed to be elusive to the elite governing body.

     
    wisdomtool, Mar 27, 2008 IP
  17. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1017
    Things may be bad in your mind, but in reality, things are pretty good. Not sure what part of the world you live in, but I highly doubt Bush had anything to do with your despair.
     
    Mia, Mar 27, 2008 IP
  18. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #1018
    Not worthy of a response.
     
    guru-seo, Mar 27, 2008 IP
  19. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #1019
    I can piss about 15 feet.
     
    smatts9, Mar 27, 2008 IP
  20. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #1020
    Mature response. I canceled mine twice already.
     
    guerilla, Mar 27, 2008 IP
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