United States Heading towards a Depression?

What comes after a depression?

When will they be forced to stop printing worthless money? 

 

Where does getting mad get you apart from angry, upset and unwell? and in jail.

Work their system. Play them at their own game. Call out more of their bluffs as most of the system is built on bluffs anyways. Bring honesty back to the table by cutting back the time people have to do things. Speed them up because things take too long when you know you have three years to play around before you need to impress.

Short term governments will enhance things greatly because that means we'll have a bunch of parties who would have to prepare a full plan of their platforms, well before they're given power. We'll have a whole bunch of parties with a much smaller agenda. If they do what they say and have a forward plan then we can vote them back. This bullshit needing a billion dollars to run for president is a joke.

Party #1 might run with leave everything status quo but to buy up the power stations or build a whole new 'green' infrastructure (all factored into the plan so people know the agenda of the people they're voting in) and take them under government control in perpetuity.

Party #2 might run with cutting military spending (all factored into their plan so people know the agenda of the people they're voting in)

Party #3 might run with increasing military spending (all factored into their plan so people know the agenda of the people they're voting in)

etc. Many parties running their transparent agenda, one year at a time. Means anyone wanting to run the country must have a full plan laid out or they aint in the running.

 

No shit you'll be angry if you're mad Jail? Don't be so soft, you call yourself a man?

We've been placid, docile and ignorant for decades and looks where we are now. If more were angry the politicians would listen to us.

I already play their game and will, don't worry. That doesn't mean I can't be angry or debate.

 

Corwin:

It has been noted that the developed nations that are large industrialized and the economic leaders of the world are universally hurting.  Japan, the US and Western Europe are all relatively wealthy, have been industrial economic leaders for a long time and they are all hurting.  They all have extensive debt and they are all losing manufacturing let alone other entities to developing nations with lower /far lower/ unbelievably lower wage scales.   Its not just the US...altho, like you I'm mostly concerned with the US.

One exception seems to be Germany.  Whether that lasts or not is a question.  They are the manufacturing engine of Europe and they have managed to dramatically increase manufacturing sales to developing nations including China.

That is interesting.  What are they doing and how are they doing this.  Germany has higher wage rates similar to those in the US....and possibly higher now.

Competition is always rough and businesses need to be ultra sharp and competitive.   Businesses though look out for themselves.  I spent a good bit of time in Wisconsin near the GE Plant.  That is a bad loss.  Not good for the US at all.  

Out of anger I'd hit the chairman of GE and his business with a big damn tax.  Immelt the chair came from the Wisconsin center before taking over GE.  He is on Obama's advisory group supposedly trying to create jobs in the US and he is moving this facility overseas....Ef him and his business.  GE got a govt guarantee on a huge loan they floated in 2009 that kept them afloat.  It allowed them to either float the bond issue and/or enabled them to do so with lower rates.  The damn company sells directly to the US govt on defense and other issues...meaning the US govt buys from them at guaranteed rates that ensure profits.....and GE didn't pay a cent into the US treasury.

I repeat.  Ef im.   Crappy business.

I don't have answers but I'll say this old "wisdoms" don't work.  Rising demand is always the key in business.  Its not this low tax bs that the uber right wing puts out.   If you have lots of demand you ramp up and make as much money as possible...then watch all your expense categories including taxes....but  you ramp up to meet demand and work to make profits with that.  

Our demand is weak.  We have lots of people out of work or working part time.  Way too many and nobody is stepping to the plate on that...certainly not the fortune 500 who are swimming in cash....and in many cases paying didlely squat in taxes like GE.

On top of that the consumer side cut back again.   That further reduces demand and it creates a reaction from the industries that feed that demand in cutting back also.   Its  a bad trend.

Frankly our politics are adding problems.  Its way too radical.  The tea partiers have black mailed the nation twice now.  You may hate the left and they may be too irresponsible with regard to debt....but everyone should look at cuts and taking hits.....just spread it around.   Hedge fund operators need to take a hit.  Cripes they are treated like gods compared to poor measly millionaires let alone the poor, unemployed, hungry and people who need education.  

 

 

@Earlpearl: As a fellow liberal, I always enjoy reading your posts. I think waaaaay too much time is spent demogoging and demonizing people like yourself as the enemy, the people who want to feed the nanny state and change the soul and character of our nation. You are definitely left of me, but can still appreciate the problems with cronie capitalism, even when the cronies in a particular case happen to be strong supporters of your political party and your president. If you could just hold back from demogoging the Tea Party and Republicans, I'm sure we would get along famously.

There are fringe elements in our society from both left and right, and those folks are fueled on a daily basis by our cable news media, but I find it hard to imagine any of the cartoonish images that are painted represent anything but a small segment of our society. On the whole, I believe that Americans from both political parties share a lot of the same basic values:

a) Have a nation where the poorest do not starve and have access to reasonable medical care
b) Not have their leaders fleecng the taxpayers to line their own pockets, and the pockets of the special interests that help put them in power
c) Live and Work in a country with strong social mobility, where anyone can be a success with hard work.
d) Pay reasonable taxes in support of our federal, state, and local governments.

You say you don't have the answers, but your post identified an enormous problem that anyone on the right would agree with. Cronie capitalism. More and more wealth is flowing into the hands of a few companies, while wages stagnate. This was true before demand started falling in 2008. GE may not have paid any taxes in the last two years, desipte Billions(with a B) in profits, but its not exactly like they were paying taxes 3-4 years ago either. Its nothing more than good old fashion corruption, and right now, Barack, Immelt and company are at the trough. 

If we were to deal with that one issue, I think you would be AMAZED at the demand that would be created in this country. Whether it be tax loopholes for special interests, or unfair trade agreements, or outsourcing arrangements that do not require the same basic worker's rights requirements and associated costs that a domestic employer would have to pay, or turning a blind eye to immigration laws that are bleeding our entitlement programs for the sake of getting new voters, if we solve the problems with corruption, the rest of the problems will seem small and demand will return.

We need to spend time supporting those who are seeking these basic changes instead of demonizing them as "terroists" or "hostage takers" or "irresponsible" or "ignorant". I'm not a smart man, but I do know what stupid is. Stupid is arguing with each other about the things we will probably never agree on while allowing the things we all agree on to be pillaged by special interests and those in power who support them.

 

Dont forget Iceland. They did what Breeze Wood ( ! ) mentioned and they took the right people to court - the bankers. They are already recovering.

 

1. The last depression lasted for around ten years.
3. Question number two... suggestion is in the video :

[video=youtube;zbn-GLNZFmA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbn-GLNZFmA[/video]

 

  You crack me up dude.  

I am a business guy with several small businesses wherein I am hands on.  Before that I invested in them and was hands off while I worked full time as a commercial real estate agent.  When I did that...all income was commission only.   You can bet your bottom dollar I competed and worked like an SOB.  With that my leanings go leftward as to govt.  Help the people who need help.  

I don't buy into the bs from the combination of corporate interests and GOP right wing pols who scream about govt involvement in business.  In most cases its a lot of whining without substance.  I deal with govt involvement.  We deal with it.  It doesn't hamper our efforts or our businesses.   I don't worry about taxes.  When there is more demand or my business is working well I can earn more.  That is my key to making businesses work and its the key to what I've seen work when being employed by major corporations.

Having said that, as a business person when things are tough you cut.  Its simple.  The US govt needs to cut expenses.  On the other hand there are plenty of people and entities who are getting sweetheart tax deals during these tough times and can contribute as Americans to this tough dilemma.  The wealthy are chief amongst them.

  Well said.  Isn't it astounding, dude, you and I agree there.  I'll see your scotch and raise you a whiskey.

 O_nation.  The simple fact is that not everyone on the right agrees with that.  In fact those in political power on the right specifically don't agree with that.  Moreover you just tied Obama into this little cabal of big business supporters.  LOL.  Yuk Yuk Yuk.  How did he get into that crowded room of GOP pols.  Okay he's a skinny guy.  He might of squeezed in amongst the fat GOP big business supporters.   On a serious note, he like the GOP is busy courting big business for campaign funds...he just isn't as much a slave to their interests.

  I think those things would be nice...but I believe the US has a deep demand problem and a problem with competing going forward.  I think our problems are bigger than you suggest.

 I AGREE

Frankly, with all the other issues floating around I think the tea party far rightists have twice blackmailed the US, first over extensions of unemployment to the long term unemployed (who aren't getting hired by those corporate giants) and 2ndly on this debt ceiling issue.

Ronald Reagan would be sickened by people/politicians who artificially threatened to take the US into default.  OTOH bin Laden would love it.  

 

@earl, I agreed heartily with your post until you got to the Tea Party.

Republicans will vote Republican, and Democrats will vote Democrat. Then, there are the people that decide elections. When I was a political consultant about 20 years ago, the general rule of thumb was that, for a Presidential election. one-third of the voters will vote Democrat and one-third will vote Republican. That two-thirds of the population can be safely ignored. The term we used was "useful idiots" The parties could run Dracula(R) and Frankenstein(D) and the useful idiots would vote for them. Campaigns are for the final one-third of the people with no party loyalty and actually decide elections. Funny thing is, party loyalists don't like to think that these people exist. To them, everyone is an extremist.

The Tea Party are the independents - the people that decide elections. They include people that voted a particular party because they thought they were the lessor of two evils. This includes Regan Democrats. The Republican rhetoric is to call the Tea Party "an offshoot of the Republican party" because they want to woo the Tea Party votes. Problem with that is, everyone knows how Karl Rove stabbed the Tea Party in the back in 2008. The Democrats call the Tea Party "Conservative Extremists" because the Democrat's early entreaties to woo the Tea Party were seen as attempts to organize and control the Tea Party, and so failed miserably.

Both parties are scared shitless of the Tea Party because they threaten business as usual. In the end, career politicians gain power by spending money and use clever rhetoric like "fair" and "necessary" to justify it. The Tea Party threaten the Republicrats because the last thing they want is ORGANIZED independent voters. It sours their Washington parties.

 

That is my purpose in life

Terrific! I'll send you my address, can you send me $50?

That you and I agree was my very point. Look, not everyone agrees that Elvis is dead. There seems to be a 10% constituency for almost any belief under the sun. The fact is, there are way more liberals who believe in capitalism than the talking heads would like to admit, just as  there are way more conservatives who are opposed to special interests in government. You say those in political power on the right do not agree, and that too is just a stereotype which is mostly inapplicable. Not to say we don't have a problem with those in power right now, but there seems to be plenty of blame to go around. 
 

He isn't? I think if Bush had appointed someone like Jeffry Immelt as his "Jobs czar", your head would have exploded. How many scandals out of Chicago politics have we seen? Does the name Charlie Rangle ring a bell? Didn't he get a stern word on the floor of congress for doing something that would have put you or I in prison for quite some time? Hell, look at the donations coming from Wall Street. More have gone to the DNC than the RNC for quite some time now. I'm not trying to excuse the RNC, who definitely has their share of issues, I'm just dispelling the ridiculous assertion that Obama is somehow less beholden to special interests.

Bigger than I suggest? When I look at deep seated and institutionalized corruption at every level of our government, that seems like an enormous almost insurmountable problem. Not sure how it could get much bigger. Then again, the government is consolidating power at every level so, at some point, it will be entirely impossible to clean up the problem short of a revolution. Lets hope we are not there already. 

I look at who put the tea party in power and why they voted how they did, and I find myself scratching my head at statements like that. They did what the majority of Americans, tea party or otherwise, wanted them to do. Poll after poll bears this out.

Ron Reagan. I bet you never figured you would idealize that particular big spending Republican. Ronny got elected by an overwhelming majority of Democrats and Republicans across most of the states in the union. He did exactly what the people wanted him to do for that set of problems at that time. You will find the Tea party reps in congress report to the exact same constituents. Amazing how intelligent a bunch of uneducated Americans with a bit of common sense can be.

 You mentioned a few times our lack of demand. I see the economists talking about it like Bush did. "Everybody go out and spend, its your patriotic duty". The fact is, since the credit crunch, by choice or otherwise, we spend less on credit. I'm having a hard time seeing that as a bad thing. Granted, we are still no where near as frugal as the Chinese, who are savers to the last of them, but this request to spend more seems idiotic.

We've been trying to figure out how to build more demand out of a population that has seen wage stagnation and deflation for more than a decade, and the process itself seems highly immoral. We repackage products into tidy little payment packages that can fit into your monthly nut. We tie everyone into bi-annual contracts for everything.  

Even after wage stagnation, we are still one of the wealthiest nations on the planet. As I said earlier, fix the corruption, and wages will cease to stagnate. Once wage stagnation ends, you will see a surge in real demand, not crappy artificial unsustainable credit based demand.

 

@ Corwin:   I don't see the tea party phenomena as you do at all.  At the bottom line has been a threat to take the nation into default rather than think and plan our way into a mechanism to cut the deficit which is huge.

Two great ways to cut the deficit for the US govt.

A) take a long and studied look at all the expenses and cut specific expenses that are less important.  

Oh my...isn't that what families and businesses do when things get tight.   I did!!!

B) raise revenues in areas where it can be afforded.   Describe it any way you wish but essentially that means raise taxes.   The tea party side and the no tax side have decided this cannot be done.  Taxes have become more important to them than the US, life, liberty and the return of the NFL.

Look hedge fund operators can pay at least 35% fed taxes on income just like other rich folk...rather than the 15% they are paying on most of their income.

Do you realize the top 25 hedge fund guys averaged $1 billion/year in income.   That is about $2.8 million/day.  Every day.  Saturdays and Sundays.  Christmas, July 4, Thanksgiving.  If they get food poisoning from spoiled fois de gras and are in the bathroom all day they make $2.8 million gross that day.   If they are paying 15% fed tax on that they are left with about $2.4 million/day.  

Imagine how incredibly tough it would be for them to pay 35% fed taxes like your everyday ordinary $5 to $30 million dollar/year executive.  What would that leave them with.....only about $1.8million/day.   I'm already crying for them.  

Add up that additional tax income that would make lives miserable for the hedge fund operators who might be handcuffed to pay taxes like those other regular Joe corporate executives... and total it up for the 25 wealthiest of them and then  send it to the feds.  Take 1/2 and pay off debt.  That is $2 billion.  Then take the other $2 billion and hire unemployed to fix infrastructure or something else at $40,000/year per person....not a lot of income in the US but better than not working.

That would create 50,000 jobs.  50,000.  That is a lot of people....They would be buying shirts and shoes, eating somewhat better, paying off their mortgages or rents, paying taxes, traveling, etc. and not getting unemployment benefits.

That would be dramatically better for the US than if the 25 hedge fund guys get to keep $2.4 million/day net rather than a paltry $1.8/million day net .

The tea party thinks that concept is terrible.   They would rather blackmail the US and threaten artificially induced default then think through some ideas like that.

Out of curiousity don't you think that if bin laden were alive he'd be rooting for the tea party???  

 

Cutting expenses isn't a viable option. The debt + interest is simply too gigantic to make even a fraction of a difference, while it would just increase pain for citizenry, in vain. Increasing taxes along with this is also futile, it's what the fat cats are doing here and no one has even attempted to give an estimate at how long it'd take. Laughable.

The only way I can see would be to introduce a new dollar, cut some sort of deal with China and kick the bankers up the arse, repeatedly until enough compensation falls out of their pockets and then introduce fixed term charters to ensure they don't become greedy again.

 

Wow Earlpearl, thats quite a plan! Raise taxes on hedge fund guys by raising taxes on capital gains, take the  extra 4 billion in revenue(about an hour's worth of federal spending) and hire more government workers. 

Its genius! Those 50,000 new 40k a year workers would then unionize and use their unions as  a special interest group to help the politicians who will give them raises, pensions, and caddilac health benefits to get elected! Then, we'll have need for even more government spending to support all the demands your new government employees would require. Rinse and repeat!

Meanwhile, your "tax on hedge fund guys", which would be a raise on capital gains, would actually be a raise on taxes for every other investor as well. You know what they say, if you want less of something, tax it more!

So, in a nutshell,

a) Grow government
b) Raise taxes
c) kill private investment

I like it!

It is certainly better than the alternative of asking federal employees to be hired with compensation packages that match the open market! I mean they are working for the federal government so they must be special and deserving of practically double what the equivalent job in the private sector pays, especially in consideration of the near 100% job security.

It is certainly better than taking the 35% tax rate or the 40% corporate tax rate  that none of the truly rich pay(John Kerry 14%, Arriana Huffington 0%, Google 2%, GE 0%), and lowering it while simplifying the tax code so wealthy people and companies actually pay their taxes.

Oh no! Much better to further complicate the tax code, keeping all the special interest exceptions in the code, with a new caveat that tries to  raise taxes  on  a targeted group of people.

GENIUS!! 

 

In other words you believe hedge fund guys should maintain a 15% fed tax rate on their $1 billion/year income while your basic slave corporate exec making a paltry $5-30million/year should have to pay 35% on income.

What do you do for work????

I have to laugh at the concept that equalizing the tax income on the wealthiest people in the US will raise costs of investments on everyone else.   These rich guys are grossing $2.8 a DAY in income.   They make in one day close to what the wealthiest 1% of the US population makes in a year.

Your fantasy concept about the horrors that might occur if formerly employed people once again get work....sounds like something out of a scare movie.

The difference between the reality of life and the scare tactics of the extreme right are absurd.   

 

Didn't you read my profile? I'm on welfare, filing frivolous lawsuits against anyone I think will settle.

Seriously though, what I do is unimportant. You strike me as a guy who is reasonably well compensated, so I have to ask myself, why be jealous of those who make more than you? So what if a handful of people make 3 million dollars a day? As long as they aren't stealing it, I say more power to em. This is America.  

Even the execs making a paltry 5-30 million a year only constitute a small handful of people and I guarantee you that nearly all of them are not paying 35%. You know as well as I do that the money flows out of their pockets into tax protected investments,  political donations, and a myriad of other on and off shore tax shelters. The more politically connected they are, the more shelters are available to them, and they are ALL politically connected.
 

Lmao. And how, exactly, did you plan to tax them and only them? Their gains qualify as capital gains. Going to tax capital gains only on gains in excess of a certain amount? How are you going to exclude gains made by investment funds without hurting individual investors? Before you know it, you've got a brand new piece of legislation, 2400 pages in girth, that nobody fully understands, but guaranteed to be filled with a myriad of new loopholes. 

I've got a friend who pays 20k a month in rent for his primary residence. If he were financing a mortgage against that, he'd get 35% back from the taxpayers. Why the special break? Knowing him, he is probably subleasing only a small portion of it back to himself while writing the rest of it off as a business expense for entertainment to one of his profitable companies. Either way, the revenue gets sheltered. 

The only way this crap is going to end is by simplifying the tax code. If I were to pull an arbitrary and magic number out of the air, I would say 18%. Tax EVERYONE at 18% with no write offs. Like a progressive tax? Fine. 10-25%. No write offs. Either way, the billionaires of the world would pay more in taxes, while we at the same time lowered the rate.

Of course this is overly simplistic and is not going to happen, but small changes to simplify the code would move us in that direction.
  
 

Again, who cares? Boo hoo, there are richer people than I.

You would be better suited arguing the facts. This type of story telling adds nothing to your argument.

 

If nothing changed other than nationalisation of the Fed. Reserve, a lot of problems would be solved; namely the transparency and accountability of the cancerous private organisation run by traitorous internationalists who have no national allegiance and who have free reign to steal taxpayers' money to fund any insidious actions and other organisations around the world they see fit. It's unbelievable that they've had their way for 98 years without so much as the public understanding the group to be private!

I say death row should make room for Greenspan, Bernanke and Geithner.

Can anyone explain the observation that a disproportionate number of chairmen of the Fed., chairmen of economic advisers and presidents of the twelve Fed. branches have been exclusively Jewish? Anyone else find this interesting at all? Stereotypes sure have a habit of playing themselves out.

(Cue anti-Semitism outrage)

 

Did anyone catch Obama's speech this morning? We are all saved! He is going to put Americans back to work by extending unemployment benefits.... again!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...benefits_will_help_create_jobs_right_now.html

Thank god our dear leader has  such a firm grasp of economics, or I would say we are screwed! 

 

MISERABLE FAILURE comes to mind. He's a fucking idiot.

 

Oh look. The US credit rating just got downgraded, despite the settlement made with the Democrats over the debt. I guess S&P didn't consider the US reducing spending growth from 8% a year to 7% a year, while extending ourselves another couple trillion in credit to be a sufficient resolution to our debt crisis, especially considering we are already operating at 100% debt to GDP.

Its all so unpleasant, lets not focus on it. Instead, lets get back to calling the Tea Party terrorists for trying to get the government to reign in it's spending.

 

No relevance to what Repubs did to blow all this up. It's ALL Obama. About as believable as IsreaI.