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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3441
    At the moment it's a recession. If it goes on another 12-24 months we can call it a depression.

    Depressions are part of the normal business cycle and normally there's a depression every 30 years.

    Most people think of GREAT DEPRESSION when you say depression. But it's a large step from a depression to a great depression.


     
    bogart, May 7, 2009 IP
  2. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3442
    Yeah, that has always been that way though. What a joke. Nothing like giving people and incentive to do the bare minimum. I know someone that got back $5300 more than she paid in. You call that fair? That's bull shit.

    And dumbama just created 800 more IRS (Government) jobs to make sure businesses like mine get fucked harder than ever.

    Strange days!
     
    Mia, May 7, 2009 IP
  3. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3443
    New report came out showing consumer spending came back up in April a lot. Probably a lot of it has to do with easter being in april this time, mothers day, tax returns, stimulus pan tax credits starting in april, and warmer weather and people are forgetting also higher gas prices too. Gas prices have gone up quite a bit in april. I certainly expect total sales to start to decline for a long streak again starting in a month or 2.

     
    domainer_10, May 7, 2009 IP
  4. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3444
    Geithner's replacement as chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, Stephen Friedman, resigned on Thursday after a Wall Street Journal report.

    The question is whether to big to fail or tool politically connected to fail?

    Friedman bought Goldman shares in December 2008 and in January of this year, which became public with a Wall Street Journal report on Monday. Friedman obtained a waiver of the bank stock ownership rules, which the Journal said was granted just before he bought stock in January.

    While the Fed was deciding whether or not to grant Friedman a waiver, he bought 37,300 Goldman shares on December 17, for an average price of $80.78, according to regulatory filings.

    On January 22, he bought 15,300 more shares for average prices of $66.19 and $67.12, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The January purchase brought his total holdings to 98,600 shares.

    Goldman shares closed on Thursday at $133.73, meaning Friedman has profited handsomely, earning more than $3 million in total on the two purchases.


    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090508/pl_nm/us_usa_fed_friedman
     
    bogart, May 7, 2009 IP
  5. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3445
    Know how they get around it? Not married, file separately, she claims kids. Meanwhile the combined household income if over $100k.
     
    Mia, May 8, 2009 IP
  6. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3446
    The stress test results are in :D In 6 months the banks will need more $$$. They are sitting on $2 or $3 trillion of loses.

    GM will be shutting down for 13 weeks this summer. When you include all the parts suppliers and Chyrsler. Unemployment will continue to get worse. GM lost another $5 billion of taxpayer money as well. Trade with Mexico will also trend down as well due to the swine flu crisis.

    The government is also having trouble selling long term debt and long term interest rates are increasing at the same time the Fed rate is at zero.

    I don't know how the country is going to pay for

    Day laborers do the same thing. They work for cash and divide up the kids with the mother to get 4k each. On top of that they get welfare, section 8 and free medical. When you add up the 50k on contruction salary with all the government benefits, it's a six figure income.
     
    bogart, May 8, 2009 IP
    Mia likes this.
  7. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3447
    By taking it from you and me buddy!!! That's how.
     
    Mia, May 8, 2009 IP
  8. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3448
    Even if you push the tax rate to 70%, there isn't enough money.

    Guys like Robert Reich are calling for another $1 trillion stimulus bill.

    GM is losing $5 billion a month.

    Forclosures are up 50%
     
    bogart, May 8, 2009 IP
  9. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3449

    Do GM workers get counted as unemployed though since its only temporary for a few weeks and plus they usually get benefits during the time? It seems like in order to be unemployed you actually gotta get fired? Anyone know how they calculate it in this instance?
     
    domainer_10, May 8, 2009 IP
  10. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3450
    Fannie Mae seeks $19 billion in government aid after posting $23.2 billion 1st-quarter loss

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fannie-Mae-seeks-19B-in-US-apf-15185035.html

    GM has requested $5 billion for it's April losses. How lonh can the US keep bleeding money?

    The workers would be laid off and eligible to collect unemployment benefits. So they would be unemployed. The shutdowns are scheduled for the week of July 4th.

    The real story is the parts suppliers. GM employs something like 335000 workers but there are 2 million part supply workers. Chysler still owes parts suppliers a lot of money and it's unclear how much they will get paid.

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2006/snapshots/563.html
     
    bogart, May 8, 2009 IP
  11. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3451



    Thanks. I did some looking up and the parts makers are already stepping up layoffs in light of chryslers bankruptcy.

    http://www.sctimes.com/article/2009...Grede+Foundries+increases+layoff+count+to+130


    GM is already planning on closing up to 2400 dealerships too as apart of their restructuring place to the government. That will be like another 30,000 jobs. Although they will be taking there time doing it will happen over the next few years.






    I'm very concerned about a major currency crisis/ inflation. I think either our dollar will crash and well have inflation worse than the early 80's or as we get towards a slow recovery inflation will rear its head and the fed will hike interest rates causing another severe 2nd phase recession. Like what happened in the early 80's with the double dip recession. Only this time the first phase of this recession will have been worse than both of the 80's and the 2nd phase will be even worse than the first phase!


    In other words. Even if the rate of decline is slowing and many are cheering that the recovery will start happening at the end of this year, they are only kidding themselves. The worst is yet to come when inflation comes in severely immediately after. Its not to hard to imagine that by the end of 2010 we will be in a full fledged depression. HOnestly we really are in a depression the only thing is so much money was pumped into the financial markets and auto companies etc that its only giving a major headfake for now. Instead of dying fast we are just going to slowly bleed to death.
     
    domainer_10, May 8, 2009 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3452
    The unemployment picture is a lot worse than the 539k reported job losses. The government added 72k workers for the 2010 census.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124178530342200595.html
     
    bogart, May 8, 2009 IP
  13. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3453

    And whats crazy is the census jobs are between 2 weeks to a year ( Most will be 2 to 3 months on average). In other words they are phony jobs. People that get these jobs won't feel secure and will horde their money from the economy. All it will do is waste government money for something unproductive (counting people LOL).





    I just found this article on the small auto parts businesses vs the big auto parts bussinesses getting a "bailout".

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hyH8-h4OHX3ln3zySz0NoLKza9GwD982BI3G0
     
    domainer_10, May 8, 2009 IP
  14. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3454
    Unemployment could climb to 12%

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Evidence-piling-up-that-worst-apf-15189458.html

     
    bogart, May 8, 2009 IP
  15. gauharjk

    gauharjk Notable Member

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    #3455
    Unemployment touches a 25-year high

    The unemployment figures would be "readjusted" upwards later this month, as is usually done.

    [​IMG]
     
    gauharjk, May 9, 2009 IP
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  16. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3456
    bogart, May 9, 2009 IP
  17. Bernard

    Bernard Well-Known Member

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    #3457
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rves-of-unused-oil-put-strain-on-storage.html

    As a guy I respect said in another place:
     
    Bernard, May 11, 2009 IP
  18. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3458
    @Bernard The demand is down for oil but the dollar is weakening.

    White House: Budget deficit to top $1.8 trillion for 2009

    The government is borrowing almost 50 cents for every dollar it spends this year

    The deficit for the current budget year is about four times the record set just last year.

    As the economy performs worse than expected, the deficit for the 2010 budget year beginning in October will worsen by $87 billion to $1.3 trillion, the White House says.


    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obama_budget
     
    bogart, May 11, 2009 IP
  19. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3459
    domainer_10, May 11, 2009 IP
  20. gauharjk

    gauharjk Notable Member

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    #3460
    Foreclosures: 'April was a shocker'

    A record number of foreclosure filings took place during April, but the number of repossessions fell 11%.

     
    gauharjk, May 13, 2009 IP
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