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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #3121
    I blame the Alien Illuminati.
    SEMrush
     
    Jackuul, Jan 13, 2009 IP
    SEMrush
  2. wokaka

    wokaka Peon

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    #3122
    Who are the members? Illuminati, if I remember, is the group of Iron Man, Prof X, Namor, etc.? :D
     
    wokaka, Jan 15, 2009 IP
  3. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #3123
    I am.

    You can join for a nominal fee.

    Your loyalty. Your soul.
     
    Jackuul, Jan 15, 2009 IP
    guerilla likes this.
  4. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3124
    Thanks for the articles. The New York metro is behind the foreclosure curve.

    [url="http://www.housingpredictor.com/]Housingpredictor.com[/url], is predicting that prices in the New York metro will fall 12% in 2009. Manhattan and Long Island may fall approx 20%. Mike Colpitts, editor of Housingpredictor.com, said the big story of 2009 could be the tide of foreclosures caused by the recasting of millions of so-called pay option adjustable-rate mortgages, which give borrowers the choice of making minimum payments that don't even cover the accrued interest. The option ARMs were especially popular in California, Florida, and Nevada.

    This spells more trouble. There's millions of homes that people can't even afford the teaser rates. Commerical Real Estate is also another bog disaster that is around the corner.

    The government should target mortgage interest-rate buydowns and other foreclosure reduction programs to the worst-hit markets, said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic & Policy Research in Washington, D.C., who warned of a potential housing crash years ago. Baker -- whose new book, Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy, was published this month -- says a recovery is unlikely in 2009, and markets could see house prices drop below even their pre-bubble levels.

    I think that the CRA, Community Reinvestment Act, played a big part in the problem. The idea for the program wasn't a bad. Many cases, someone in the community couldn't get a loan in the $150k range on the 2-3 family house.

    Once the thresolds on mortgages that could be covered by fannie/freddie was raised, people were being charged 500k for a 200k house. This was helping nobody.

    The Bloomberg Adminstration has done some good things over the last 8 years with affordable housing. The default rates are low. It's a shame that something wasn't done on a national level.

    Mayor Bloomberg announced yesterday that the city is purchasing the swath of Long Island City land, which sits across the river from the United Nations, from the Port Authority for $146 million to 5,000 units of housing for families earning between $60,000 and $145,000 a year. It is part of the Bloomberg administration's larger, $7.5 billion plan to create or preserve 165,000 units of so-called affordable housing citywide. The rents are expected to be between $1,200 and $2,500 a month, and the site will also include shops and parks.

    75% of the overall affordable housing plan is targeted to low-income families. These units are included in the 22,000 the city is building as middle-income housing.


    Government backed companies like Freddie/Frannie shouldn't be able to lobby. Its like putting the fox in charge of the hen house.

    Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
    Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008

    1. Dodd, Christopher J D-CT $133,900
    2. Kerry, John D-MA $111,000
    3. Obama, Barack D-IL $105,849
    4. Clinton, Hillary D-NY $75,550
    13. Emanuel, Rahm D-IL $51,750
    16. Frank, Barney D-MA $40,100
    22. Pelosi, Nancy D-CA $32,750
     
    bogart, Feb 1, 2009 IP
  5. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3125
    ^ I've all but given up beating that dead horse. Bogart, even the morons that voted for these idiots are starting to realize they've been had. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy stupid people realizing they are stupid for a while. Its not like there's anything on TV funnier than that.
     
    Mia, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  6. dantheman151

    dantheman151 Peon

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    #3126
    Agree with the above, lets watch the idiots do what they do best.

    I'm not sure anyone's mentioned it, and I'm not about to read the 157 pages of this thread, but the reason that we (the UK and the USA) are in a recession (possibly depression in a couple of years) is that people spend money they don't have! Credit! Damn credit! We don't have the money yet we spend it! The banks don't have money yet they spend it! The government has to make ridiculously futile attempts to 'save' the economy, does this work - No, because we (in general) keep spending this non-existent money!

    Advice - Don't spend what you don't have. Don't have credit cards. Leave the **** in the shop, you can't afford another beer, you can't afford another pie - just leave it, you can't afford!

    Ahhhh I think that's cleared out about three months worth of ****head induced rage.
     
    dantheman151, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  7. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3127
    No one ever taxed their way into prosperity.
    No one ever spent their way into prosperity.

    Both of the above are recipes for disaster, or an attempt at socialism.

    I believe we are headed towards the later.
     
    Mia, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  8. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #3128
    When we're not talking about foreign policy i'm in love with ya.
     
    ncz_nate, Feb 2, 2009 IP
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  9. PioneerGold

    PioneerGold Well-Known Member

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    #3129
    The US government is doing everything but leading people straight to the nearest mall. There have been 2 "stimulus" packages with a 3rd on the way.

    You had Bush telling people to spend after 9/11.
    You have these politicians constantly droning on about consumption being so important to the economy.
    You have Bush with a bank bailout so they'll put people further in debt.
    You have Obama saying we need more money for the people.
    You have Obama saying banks need to lend (put people in debt).

    It's the government that has created and wants to increase this debt monster. They want people in debt.

    Why?

    The current US government only exists because of debt. Without it, the government would have to shrink drastically. That means a lot fewer bureaucrats telling everyone how to live and a LOT LESS power.

    Governments do not WILLINGLY give up power.

    I blame the people only as far as they are unwilling to fight the tyrannical US federal bureaucracy.
     
    PioneerGold, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  10. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3130
    The problem isn't the recession but the banking system. We can't get ourselves out of the recession until the problem is fixed. No amount of stimulus is going to fix the problem.

    At the moment there is something like $8 trillion on the sidelines in money market funds. There is real danger that a collapse in the S&P and the Dow will cause funds to 'break the buck' and cause a market crash to Dow 5000.
     
    bogart, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  11. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3131
    I agree that if the banking system wasn't so out of whack this would just be a severe recession. But because of the tight credit conditions its gonna turn it into a depression.
     
    domainer_10, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  12. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3132
    Credit isn't so much tight but rather banks are tightening their lendering standards. The loose credit standards got us into the mess that we are in.

    Edit:
    Banks are blaming regulators for telling them to increase their capital and tighten loan standards for the slow in lending. At the same time, Congress is telling banks to loan more money.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28985294
     
    bogart, Feb 2, 2009 IP
  13. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3133
    Yeah thats what i mean. They are just going back to what they should have ALWAYS been before they started giving out credit like it was candy.
     
    domainer_10, Feb 3, 2009 IP
  14. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3134
    Real Estate prices are still coming down. It's like catching a falling knife.

    I've looked at some small buildings on the 'Gold Coast' -- Hudson Waterfront area. Prices are dropping 2% per month. Even with all the price drops you can barely break even. Which tells me that prices are going further south.

    The Bush tax cuts are set to expire in 2010. I'm wondering if that will increase capital gains taxes?
     
    bogart, Feb 3, 2009 IP
  15. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #3135
    Bogart: I sooooo wouldn't worry about that. When I bought at a market low after a huge drop in values.....the common selling price that was in effect (prior to the collapse) for those types of properties in the market in which I bought was about 10 times the income stream ( take something for vacancy assumptions).

    When the market peaked about 2 years ago...properties were selling about 20 times income streams (scarcely any accounting for a vacancy factor).

    Now who knows where sales prices might go. Who knows income streams.

    If you are smart enough, lucky enough, work hard enough to buy low you will see nice increases in value if and when things rebound. If not....who cares about capital gains taxes. Be like Buffet, try and be liquid and try and buy low.....--> real low.

    If you buy low.....and there is no rebound......you don't have to spend a second thinking about capital gains.
     
    earlpearl, Feb 4, 2009 IP
  16. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3136
    Unemployment has hit 7.6% today which is compared to the highest level of the '92 recession. 4.2 million people are receiving unemployment and another 2 million are getting extended unemployment benefits.

    600k job losses a month is going to push unemployment to 10%.

    We are in historic times. The next 6 months are going to be tough.

    It's not so much as buying low as getting a fair value. The New York metro is way overvalued and it will take at least a year more for prices to correct. Prices are decling appox. 2% a month but have a long way to go. Most of the properties for sale are short sales.

    Inflation is going to come back strong and when that happens there wouldn't be any problems with cash flow. But the Banks will be killed again.
     
    bogart, Feb 6, 2009 IP
  17. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #3137
    How long do you think it will take until inflation runs rampant? Roughly.
     
    ncz_nate, Feb 9, 2009 IP
  18. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3138
    Well, assuming the dumbocrabs get their economic spendulous package passed... About that long. They'll have to print more money, hence inflation.
     
    Mia, Feb 9, 2009 IP
  19. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #3139
    I hear it takes some time for the inflation to take it's effect, or did i interpret this wrong?
     
    ncz_nate, Feb 9, 2009 IP
  20. LogicFlux

    LogicFlux Peon

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    #3140
    Inflation probably won't happen until after the recession and no one knows when that'll be.
     
    LogicFlux, Feb 9, 2009 IP
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