United States Heading towards a Depression?

There are multiple reasons. Demand is lower obviously. With a fear of a looming recession commodities are historically pushed down. Both of these seem to be key factors in the reduction with demand being one of the largest.

Things are so grim for the poor Saudi princes and kings that they are desperate to fix prices at $75/barrel so they do not go broke. I mean what happens if they cannot afford to fly and entourage of 170 people to the Mayo Clinic and spend 5 million bucks in a few days in the process?

Poor bastards.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/29/news/international/opec.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008112910

These terrorist shitbags already attempted once again to manipulate the price of oil by cutting production near in half. Fortunately for us, it backfired on them.

TOO BAD!!!

The irony here is that much of this money us as Americans gave to these dirtbags over the years has gone right back into our own stock market (not just for IEDs and WMDs). That's right. These guys invested the money they got from us putting Oil in our SUV's not for just WMD's, but for stocks in our country. Now look at the stock market? Who's hurting the most?

I've never been so amused and pleased at one time in my life. Funny how life works. One day these guys will go back to sifting sand.

 

Geez...please tell us how you really feel! So you blaming them now, for us adopting oil as a source of energy to fuel our cars? They did not invent the combustible engine nor the car, they just so happen to sit on top of oil. Why you so mad? Jealous? Don't like their oil? Don't buy it. Sell your POS Corvette and Harley and start riding your bicycle to work.

 

You are confused. I'm not blaming anyone. I'm laughing.

Sounds like you are the jealous one my friend.

You might want to read a little slower next time to take in the entire post rather than jumping to your biased closed minded conclusions.

 

Anyone specific or all of them?

 

May be this thread now read as " Global Recession in full force "............And as for crude oil, like all commodities and stocks, property, this item too was ballooned due to excessive leveraged cheap money and it's getting out now...........quick and fast.........

 

Why do I get the sinking feeling Americans will take this cheap gasoline and waste it like they did the previous 35 years?

The summer is a wake-up call to get rid of these wasteful SUVs, inefficient monster homes, and indulgent consumer products.

I figured prices would retreat, given the rise was so sudden. But, it's a harbinger of permanently higher prices, at some point (maybe within 5 years). It's like we've entered the eye of the storm and most Americans are probably running around like everything is back to normal.

But, when gas goes back up to the $4-5 levels and higher, it won't be coming back down.

Let's see if this country has learned anything from the summer of 2008.

 

I don't discriminate.

 

The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index came in at 37.3, the worst in the gauge's 11-year history and below October's already weak 44.4.

The ISM's employment is consistent with Nov. payrolls falling by about 500,00

The U.S. government November payrolls report is due on Friday, when the Labor Department is expected to say nonfarm employment fell by 320,000, the eleventh straight month of losses

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081203/ts_nm/us_usa_economy

 

What they can't understand is that when you artifically raise the price beyond market forces by controlling supply, then people start buying less of it. Which actually hurts your profits ultimately.

 

Wait till January and February. I bet its gonna hit a half a million per month then. The only reason why its not that yet is because the holiday season is keeping retailers on life support. Plus with everything all happenign in just the last few months - the whole financial crisis and oil prices shot up so quickly this summer it obviously takes a few months for employers to see the effect and then decide to cut back. Thats why in recessions the unemployment is usually the last to rebound because of the delay effect. Plus employers sometimes don't have the heart to cut people loose before christmas. There are going to be a lot of people after new years wishing they hadn't spent their hard earned money on presents.


My prediction by January or February it's going to reach over 500,000 jobs lost per month. Lets see if Im right.

 

China is starting to get nervous about the excessive US financial bailouts and urged the US to protect China's U.S. investments.

"We hope the U.S. side will take the necessary measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets, as well as to guarantee the safety of China's assets and investments in the United States," Vice Premier Wang Qishan told U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and other U.S. officials at the Strategic Economic Dialogue.


China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan said excessive U.S. consumption and over-reliance on debt were key reasons for the crisis, and he urged the United States to raise its savings rate and reduce its budget and trade deficits.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081204/as_china_us_talks.html

 

They only understand one thing. GREED.

 

I have no idea what you guys are talking about. World oil production has been flat during the price run-up.

http://localfuture.org/charts/20080301/20080301WorldOilProductionWissnerLarge.GIF

This spike in prices had absolutely nothing to do with producer greed and everything to do with currency valuations, fear of peak oil, and investments made in commodities thanks to banks and investment firms with 20x or 30x or 100x leverage ratios. The price run up was not related to the supply of oil whatsoever, rather a sinking demand for dollars caused by an oversupply of dollars.

The current oil crash is one part monetary deflation, one part demand destruction due to economic slowdown.

More recent production numbers here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

Q2 2008 was the highest quarter for global oil production - and oil was at its all time record price.

 

The full effect of the recession will likely hit the first quarter of 2009 when millions of people will be jobless. Right now in the U.S. it seems like the unemployment rate is around 6% or roughly 18,000,000 residents. That number might jump to 30M and even 50M. That's when the ~ will hit the fan. The unemployment comp fund will get depleted. As the depression hits, people south of the border will rush into the U.S. by even larger numbers seeking refuge thus causing yet another huge expense in health care and other issues.

Crime rates will jump and both online and offline commerce will feel the huge pinch in the balls. It's going to be tough. On a positive note for Internet Marketers, those focusing on solutions and marketing products that are "must have" regardless of recessions, will probably do well. People will still spend / invest money, but only towards things that they MUST have, not trivial stuff. If you run a freebie/coupons type site, you will likely do very well next year.

Many people will be taking on odd-jobs just to make ends meet:

 

GREED.

It had everything to do with a group of Arabs controlling prices, coupled with a thirsty US based SUV driving Union loving automaking gas sucking crowd.

The Arab cartels control production, and price. Are there other factors? Of course? Ultimately, GREED and the Arab cartels are the main catalyst in terms of price.

 

thanks how not uderstand

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/03/business/main3900075.shtml?source=RSSattr=Business_3900075

This was back in March. BTW, that last statement I quoted. That's the recession. OIL. Energy. Not sub-prime, not Bush.

OIL.

Here's who you can thank:

The 13 OPEC members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

 

I don't know how many times I need to say this but OPEC has no more a handle on oil prices than you do. They are constrained to supply and demand, not some arbitrary number they come up with.

I have no idea where you are getting the idea that the recession has been caused by oil prices. I am dumbfounded at this thought.

 

The OPEC nations are a CARTEL. Once you read a bit more about what a cartel is, how it operates and how an oligopoly fixes prices, you'll understand more about what I am talking about.

I'm not calling the OPEC nations a "cartel" they are, the media is, and the world has generally accepted that they are a CARTEL.

It starts here.

Personal Life. We drive automobiles. We spend $100/week. for gas
The things we buy are based on a similar price for transportation, production, etc. Everything from food, to goods and services delivered, or derived from petroleum products. From the shingles on my house, to the asphalt on the roads, to the plastic bottle that holds water, or even OIL.

Now it costs 4 times that. Everything else does as well. Here we are. Now we pay $400/week. for gas. And 4 times the cost for everything else I mentioned.

Now, we are paying about 60% less than what we were for nearly a year for gas. Eventually all the other items associated with those increases will decrease as well. The way I see it, that's thousands of dollars every month for some households of money that can be used for other more sensible things like PAYING A MORTGAGE.

In my business life. Its exponentially larger. Fleet wise, before I sold my wireless company I probably had about $12,000/mo. in oil related costs. Now, now its well under $5k. That is a significant reduction. One that costs jobs, and expansion as a result prior to the rise in energy costs.

I guess I've been alive and around a lot longer than some here and have experienced the cyclical nature of economic slow downs, recessions and energy crisis.

That's what we were in folks. Not a recession. AN ENERGY CRISIS. The more people can get to grips with that and stop blaming Bush and Christ for their problems, the less dumbfounded people will bey.

Lets say it together. E N E R G Y C R I S I S ! ! !

We should be dictating terms to the big three right now instead of giving them money. They are at the forefront of the problem as well. It amazes me to no end that we had a car in the 70's that got 35MPG and today Ford is proud to tout barely 25MPG on their most fuel efficient hybrid. Thats pathetic.

We'll continue into recession if we do not overcome our ENERGY CRISIS.

Subprime had and has nothing to do with this. OIL. and OIL alone!

 

But Mia, you think Obama is a secret islamic terrorist plant, why should anyone listen to you? lmao