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United States Heading towards a Depression?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by decoyjames, Dec 27, 2007.

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  1. Bakai

    Bakai Guest

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    #3021
    The amount is irrelevant. The bailout is simply printing (or making up) money. It will devalue the dollar to its decline worldwide. Money is a concept of worth or value.

    I hate to say this, but we need a new monetary system. A global one.
    SEMrush
     
    Bakai, Nov 25, 2008 IP
    SEMrush
  2. PioneerGold

    PioneerGold Well-Known Member

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    #3022
    ^^^^^^^^

    You don't get it.

    The global monetary system is what created this mess. Instead of the problem being limited to a single country, now it spreads across the globe.

    The more you centralize things, the worse things become.

    The last thing any country should want is to depend on something (in this case money) which they do not control.
     
    PioneerGold, Nov 26, 2008 IP
  3. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #3023
    They are not simply printing money it is all sterilized.
     
    smatts9, Nov 26, 2008 IP
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  4. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3024
    Does it matter if it is a sterilized intervention? $7.5 trillion is a lot of money and Schumer is planning a $700 billion stimilus.

    In the latest efforts to stabilize the financial system, the Federal Reserve announced Tuesday that it will buy $200 billion in securities backed by different types of debt including credit card loans, auto loans, student loans and loans to small businesses.

    The Fed also announced that it will spend $500 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and another $100 billion to directly purchase mortgages held by Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks.


    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081126/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown;_ylt=Anx0KCvUFUsvoBIPlyn8nOqs0NUE
     
    bogart, Nov 26, 2008 IP
  5. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3025
    At this point we probably don't want the economy to ever recover good now with all this new money in the system because if it did watch out we will have high inflation that will make deflation look good.
     
    domainer_10, Nov 26, 2008 IP
  6. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3026
    Meltdown far from over, commercal real estate crisis looms

    The number of late payments and defaults will double, if not triple, by the end of next year, according to analysts from Fitch Ratings Ltd., which evaluates companies' credit.


    The worst-case scenario goes something like this: With banks unwilling to refinance, a shopping center goes into foreclosure. Nobody can buy the mall because banks won't write mortgages as long as investors won't purchase them.

    "Credit markets have seized up," corporate securities lawyer Michael Gambro said. "People are not willing to take risks. They're not buying anything."

    That drives down investments already on the books. Insurance companies are seeing their stock prices fall on fears they are too invested in commercial mortgages.

    "The system has never been tested for a deep recession," said Ken Rosen, a real estate hedge fund manager and University of California at Berkeley professor of real estate economics.


    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081127/meltdown_coming_soon.html
     
    bogart, Nov 27, 2008 IP
  7. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3027
    Thanks for the article, first one i seen on the malls, hotel aspect.
     
    domainer_10, Nov 27, 2008 IP
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  8. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #3028
    Someone said "dupe?" in a karma message thing regarding this post...

    What do you mean? How is it printing? I'd like some proof, amuse me.

    Bogart: It is different. If they started to print money and hand it out then there would be a massive flight of capital, think Weimar.
     
    smatts9, Nov 28, 2008 IP
  9. jodyq

    jodyq Peon

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    #3029
    Well I can say thank you to my aunt, who 10 years ago told me to not stick money into bonds or stocks and keep my porfolio green, so every week for the last 10 years i have put a undisclosed amount of money every week aside, and now I am glad I did. Thank you Aunt!!! I love you
     
    jodyq, Nov 28, 2008 IP
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  10. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3030
    NBER says U.S. recession began December 2007

    The U.S. recession started December 2007 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The NBER committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
     
    bogart, Dec 1, 2008 IP
  11. korr

    korr Peon

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    #3031
    The good news is that we're near the bottom of an 80 year economic mega-cycle.

    The bad news is that we're near the bottom... It keeps going down for a few more years.

    However, I am extremely bullish about the economic prospects available in 2013. If we're still alive. If we avoid WW3 with China (or at least keep it confined to Africa).
     
    korr, Dec 1, 2008 IP
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  12. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #3032
    Seems like a reasonable analysis. I worked through the commercial real estate melt down in that industry during the late 1980's/early 90's. When the markets collapsed essentially you could value all commercial real estate at ZERO. Nobody was buying. I recall when purchases started occurring again at around $0.25 on the dollar...maybe a little higher. Took about 2 years before purchasing started again. Deals that were financed needed a lot of equity...maybe 50%.

    I think the difference now is that there are higher occupancy rates around on all real estate. Of course we will see rising vacancy. Its certainly hitting in the retail sector.

    Having said that I know there are all cash or tremendous cash funds circling the Washington DC region. Possibly in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. They are looking for bargain deals.

    There are all cash buyers out there even for very large properties. Pension funds, for instance, (even as they are taking hits).

    I think commercial is like a bigger version of residential and its behind in the bankruptcy game. Also it isn't subject to the sub prime loans...but it does have different types of loans that come due all the time.

    Its all those loans that are coming due that create some of the problems...beyond vacancy which will increase at some rate.
     
    earlpearl, Dec 1, 2008 IP
  13. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3033
    Yeah! Hooray! HooRah!!! The media finally gets what they wished for. :rolleyes:

    Lets all wish for depression next. Then armageddon!
     
    Mia, Dec 1, 2008 IP
  14. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #3034
    This was inevitable, media or not. I don't wish for this but I am not going to cover my eyes and ears and pretend like everything is fine.

    But according to you it isn't a recession yet, right? No two consecutive quarters of negative GDP which you kept espousing.
     
    smatts9, Dec 1, 2008 IP
  15. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3035
    No, I just don't like to beat a dead horse. Its kinda counter productive, don't ya think? It seems silly to me to continually spout doom and gloom when things are not terrible. At least not everywhere. I've experience much worse.

    It most certainly has not been a recession since last December. That is just absurd.

    And yes, the historical definition for recession is the one I go by. I could go by the "I wish things sucked" definition. Or the"Bush fucked everything up definition". But then I would have to have a seance and raise Jeffery Dahmer from the dead and have him drill a hole in my head.

    I prefer to use the logical, historical, and time tested proven method for determining negative economic growth. Not the expected and hopeful outcome of those that wish failure upon all who are not in power.

    Anything short of the historical definition is ridiculous.
     
    Mia, Dec 1, 2008 IP
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  16. guru-seo

    guru-seo Peon

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    #3036
    Oh come on. "Its only Doom and gloom" - to quote somebody in this forum. A lot of us here saw this crap coming long time ago. This is just the official admission now, ohhh like 2 yrs late?
     
    guru-seo, Dec 1, 2008 IP
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  17. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3037
    No, a lot of people wished, hoped and begged for it. Luckily it is not as bad as it seems. The reality is oil was the key ingredient in the economic slowdown. Not the sub prime crap.

    Now that oil is on its way to $30/barrel again, eventually we will see sticky pricing disappear and the cost of goods and services will drop. I'm saving $800/mo. as a business and $400/mo. personally as a result. Given I did not live beyond my means like so many others, my expense and pain as been related entirely to the price of oil, nothing else.

    So long as oil stays down, and continues down, nothing else really matters. Energy is what has driven the downturn, everything else is secondary and directly related to that rise in cost.
     
    Mia, Dec 1, 2008 IP
  18. domainer_10

    domainer_10 Peon

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    #3038
    You are right that Oil was the catalyst for part of it. Everyone thinks of the housing bubble, but oil played a huge role too. If gas didn't go up like it did people wouldn't be spending a ton on gas and food and other things that rose as a result of oil prices and not being able to make their mortgages. But the Home mortage is another bubble that needed to pop. But now that people can't borrow on their home equity, can't use credit cards cause they are maxed out or can't get a new one cause banks are tightening up credit, it means less consumer spending. Less consumer spending = depression since 70% of our economy is spending, vs. back during the great depression where we actually made stuff.
     
    domainer_10, Dec 1, 2008 IP
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  19. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #3039
    Energy was at the root of the problem, along with the stranglehold that liberals in Washington had on the banks forcing them to give out money to people that could not afford to pay the money back. All the while they claimed fanny and freddie were fine. Some of those law makers have private Gyms in their offices at the Capital.

    Oil was the catalyst, and CRA was fuel to that fire. Now we have that same gang of thugs in COMPLETE and TOTAL control of everything. All the while they still seek to blame their attack on democracy on Bush and Cheney.
     
    Mia, Dec 2, 2008 IP
  20. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

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    #3040
    Do you think oil is dropping because of good reasons?
     
    smatts9, Dec 2, 2008 IP
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