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U.S. Recession May Have Begun in Last Quarter of 2007

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by guru-seo, Jul 31, 2008.

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  1. #1
    guru-seo, Jul 31, 2008 IP
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  2. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #2
    Technically speaking from a more layman view of a 2 consecutive decrease in GDP, it is not a recession as the first quarter of 2008 gives a paltry 0.9% growth. The National Bureau of Economic Research has not announced the recession yet. But of course that does not mean that we are not in a recession as GDP is a lagging indicator.
     
    wisdomtool, Jul 31, 2008 IP
  3. lightless

    lightless Notable Member

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    #3
    I think we are getting caught up in technicalities and technical analysis rather than focusing more on issues/solutions.
     
    lightless, Jul 31, 2008 IP
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  4. pingpong123

    pingpong123 Well-Known Member

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    #4
    Even in southern cali, good businesses are almost impossible to find at a good price because if you have a good business that is surviving these economic conditions than you treat it like a diamond or gold.
     
    pingpong123, Jul 31, 2008 IP
  5. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #5
    Some parts of the US are in a recession like California where the unemployment rate is 6.6%. Other states that are in a recession are Ohio and Michigan. Farm and oil producing states like Wyoming, North and South Dakota, and Texas are better.
     
    bogart, Jul 31, 2008 IP
  6. korr

    korr Peon

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    #6
    I use a unique deflator based on subsistence living and ROI of a diverse investment portfolio.. I call it "the personal budget of a fiscal conservative" and I figure that the recession started in Q3 2007.
     
    korr, Jul 31, 2008 IP
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  7. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #7
    4th quarter 2007 was revised down to -0.2% and 1st quarter 2008 was 0.9%. At the least it's vey close to a recession. I would expect NBER to declare one. Unemployment is a lagging indicator and it's not at 5.7% with 6 months of job losses.

    I would expect that in 2009 we have a 'double dip' recession.
     
    bogart, Aug 3, 2008 IP