The strange case of Clinton vs Obama

Beware of Hitlary Clinton!

- [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Shashi Tharoor

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The Republicans have emerged with a credible candidate (Not Really!)... while Obama and Hillary are going to spend the next several weeks (and possibly months) trying to prove each other unworthy of office. The risk remains that one of them will emerge with a Pyrrhic victory, so bloodied by the contest that s/he is no longer able to stand up to the Republican onslaught

The Democrats are still divided, locked into a seemingly interminable battle between two front-runners, Senator Barack Obama of Ilinois and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. Senator Obama won a dozen party primaries on the trot and seemed certain to emerge as the Democratic candidate; then Senator Clinton reversed his momentum, claiming three on the same night, including the crucial states of Texas and Ohio (the latter a "bellwether state" - no one has so far won the presidency without winning Ohio); then Obama beat her comprehensively in Wyoming and Mississippi earlier this week.

Bizarrely, there is now a six-week hiatus till the next contest between the two, on April 22 in the industrial state of Pennsylvania. While McCain unites his party, consolidates his fund-raising and sharpens his knives for whichever Democrat emerges as the winner, the party popularly depicted by cartoonists as a donkey, will spend this time tearing itself apart.

This year's election was widely considered to be the Democrats' to lose; the American public is generally believed to be sick of eight years of Republican rule under the singularly inept George Bush. Yet, the Republicans have emerged with a credible candidate, an authentic war hero who has long been a media favourite, while the two leading Democratic contenders are going to spend the next several weeks (and possibly months) trying to prove each other unworthy of office. The risk remains that one of them will emerge with a Pyrrhic victory, so bloodied by the contest that he or she is no longer able to stand up to the Republican onslaught.

It didn't have to be this way. When Obama racked up his dozen straight primary wins, many commentators urged Clinton to throw in the towel. She did not, and her victories in Texas and Ohio seemed to vindicate her persistence. But the truth is that even before those victories it was clear that she could not conceivably enter the convention with the delegates needed to secure the nomination. The reason is that the Democrats allot their delegates proportionate to the candidates' performance in the primaries, rather than winner-take-all, so that even if Hillary had won every remaining primary (which, of course, she could not, as Wyoming and Mississippi were soon to prove) and even if she had won them by 10-point margins over Obama (even more unlikely) she still would not have the delegates she needs to win or even to overtake her rival's tally.

Why, then, is she still running? Partly because she does not give up easily; she wants to stay in until it is well and truly over. Partly because, as some critics aver, she has never learned how to lose, gracefully or otherwise. And partly because this is an ambition she has nurtured for so long, pursued so diligently, and come so close to fulfilling, that she cannot quite believe it is slipping away from her.

But the scenario for Hillary is an improbable one. She would have to win Pennsylvania, but that she is expected to; its demographics are rather like Ohio's, and the state's popular governor is in her camp. Then she would have to win enough of the final dozen primaries (from Guam to Puerto Rico) to be able to claim that the party electorate is still divided over Obama. She would have to get delegates from Florida and Michigan (whose primaries, which took place in January against the wishes of the Democratic National Committee, officially do not count) controversially seated, or arrange a re-run in each place which she could win. She would still enter the convention with fewer "pledged" delegates (won in the primaries) than Obama, so she would need to persuade the unpledged "superdelegates" (mainly party notables) that she would be the more effective candidate in November, in the hope that an overwhelming majority of them would vote for her in the convention balloting. And throughout this process, she would have to hope that either her attacks or McCain's, or some fortuitous mishap, would cause Obama to make some fatal misstep that would demonstrate his unsuitability to be president.

In short, she would need, in the bitter words of the commentator Jonathan Chait, to "kneecap an eloquent, inspiring, reform-minded young leader who happens to be the first serious African-American presidential candidate... and then win a contested convention by persuading party elites to override the results at the polls." A nomination secured in that way, many feel, would leave so many idealistic young Obama backers disillusioned with the electoral process that they would sit on their hands in November, allowing McCain to romp home. (And should Obama survive it all to emerge the nominee, he may well find McCain simply repeating Clinton's arguments against him to devastating effect.)

The clamour increases amongst concerned Democrats for the two candidates to unite in the interests of party unity, but that seems improbable, since neither is inclined to cede the top spot on the ticket to the other. Clinton says she will stay in the race to the finish - which would, as I predicted in my January 13 column, give political diehards the joy of watching a truly contested convention, something almost unknown in the last few decades (no party convention has even gone to a second ballot since 1952). But the aftermath could be anything but joyous for supporters of either historic candidacy. "I have waited my whole life to vote for an African-American president," Bill Clinton memorably said. "And I have waited my whole life to vote for a woman president. I feel God is playing with our heads and our hearts."
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The strange case of Clinton vs Obama

gauharjk Notable Member

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The strange case of Clinton vs Obama

gauharjk Notable Member

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