It is always hard to predict these things, but I think Flash is going to play an important role in the presentation of (especially) commercial web pages -- too what degree is a much more difficult prediction. Of course, there are so many different kinds of web page clients and users: Online News; Personal Blogs; General Commercial (Airlines, Automobile, Electronics, etc.); Sales & Promotions; Entertainment; Academic research; Technical references & resources; Governmental Institution references; Sports; Web services; Gaming; Arts & Crafts (Photography, Music, Performing Arts, etc.), Health and Welfare; Disability Services .......... and so on. Some of these embrace widely diverse Web page design and rendering requirements. For example, a contemporay music site client may demand pages that feature numerous graphical images (some animated), vivid colors -- lots of splash. A Sports site client may require each page to have several action photographs, results tables, and fixture schedules. An Airline site client may require pages that prominently display the company logo, pictures of flagship aircraft, fare comparison and schedule tabulations, etc. All of the foregoing feature graphics rich pages and undoubtably can use some Flash to great advantage (however quality content and excellent navigation will still be at a premium). Other Client groups such as Academic and Research entities; Technical resources; Governmental Institutions, etc, often emphasize content over presentation and require only minimal graphics -- often just an identifying logo for each page -- Flash will probably not be used very much -- if at all --by them. Personal Web pages (where you are your own client) run the gamut of simplicity and complexity -- some are very simple and consist of pure text, others are quite complex and feature numerous photographs and tabulated references where Flash may be put to good use. Flash does presents some usage difficulties for People with Disabilities particularly those who rely on Screen Readers and other Assistive Devices. James
I second your Opinion. The only flaw it presents is the SEO issue, which hopefully would also be counteracted within coming years. Flash is better than JS, and it will surely make its way further than anything else. Because of the endless possibilities.
Flash is fine in moderation. Once the big G starts indexing 100% flash sites the way it devours the pure html ones, then it'll have a great future. Somehow I remember saying this 5 years ago. Hmmmm...
The problem with Flash is that it takes the control out of the hands of the user. You can't turn javscript on/off, view the source, change the font size, use plugins to modify the CSS to your liking, see what's happening in the background (redirects, in or out of https etc.). The web is great because it's mostly transparent - you can see what's going on. Flash takes that away, so unless the implementation is changed significantly I doubt it'll ever play a major part.
Flash seems to be important for advert based promotional sites for heavy hitters like Coca-Cola etc... While I think flash gives sites a certain advantage when implemented correctly, in the end I think it will be the sites that catch your eye without use of flash who will prevail.
You'll be crowding your Web Page with Keywords, which is not Search Engine Friendly. Keywords are always suppose to be less and more connected to your niche to get better at SER.
GOOD ***ING GOD * ****ING HOPE TO BLOODY ****ING NOT!!! Flash is fat, bloated, slow, has accessability issues out the yazoo, and is a proprietary technology to boot. Using it for anything on a website apart from showing a movie or creating a game is a complete miserable ****ING /FAIL/ and the dillwads that go out and make sites that do that should be taken around back of the woodshed with a 30-06 and put down like old yeller. ... and just because big names use it doesn't make it any ****ING less of a ****ING /FAIL/. I hit a page with flash for navigation or even as the main content of the page these days, I go right past and go somewhere else. But if you really do want your page to break normal browser navigation like forward and back, to measure in the megabytes and take minutes to load on a 10mbps connection, go right the **** ahead and be a flashtard.
Not to mention most people today are on laptops. Have you ever experienced how hard the fan starts working whenever you watch flask stuff (youtube for example). CPU is processing like crazy. For movie sites it is one of the easiest options to use .flv but it should be used in moderation in web design (still). This fact hasn't changed in about 5 years, so I don't know about it's future when it comes to mass web design deployment.