Stocks that will do well in another Great Depression

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by alstar70, Oct 6, 2008.

  1. #1
    I'm seeking advice of person's regarding which stocks they think will do well in this coming recession/depression?

    I note in the great depression of 1929 some stocks never recovered - for example many Railways stocks - even to this day have not recovered to pre-1929 levels - e.g. NYC - partly due to the crash and party due to the fact the age of the railroads was coming to an end.

    I imagine financial stocks will take a pounding as normal.

    But some things may be more recession proof - e.g. cornflakes, cereals - I noted in the last recession cereals producers (I'm talking breakfast cereals here) did well, because people couldn't afford more expensive foods and returned to the basics.

    Are there any other stocks you think have similar qualities?

    your thoughts?
     
    alstar70, Oct 6, 2008 IP
    guerilla likes this.
  2. Chios

    Chios Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,740
    Likes Received:
    82
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    195
    #2
    google stock, don't think it won't be affected (not much more)
     
    Chios, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  3. flippers.be

    flippers.be Peon

    Messages:
    432
    Likes Received:
    4
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    #3
    Imo Google and all other internet stocks can crash a lot..

    Only companies that produce real tangible products will do good. Especially basic products that people can't do without (like food).
     
    flippers.be, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  4. PHPGator

    PHPGator Banned

    Messages:
    4,437
    Likes Received:
    133
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    260
    #4
    Google's stock has already been going down since last year. You might consider bread or bologna types of foods.
     
    PHPGator, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  5. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

    Messages:
    23,694
    Likes Received:
    1,167
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    440
    #5
    Its one of the stocks that is a prime example of why Mark to Market should be eliminated. It is WAY over valued, and it is this over valuation both in the tech sector as well as on Wall Street in general that has been partly to blame for the current mess.

    The best place to put your money right now is into real estate.
     
    Mia, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  6. WebdevHowto

    WebdevHowto Peon

    Messages:
    991
    Likes Received:
    23
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    #6
    I would not be thinking stocks right now. I would be thinking assets. With the way things are going the dollar might increase in value in the short term and we might experience deflation in the US. Time it right and move your dollars into assets just before the hyperinflation and devaluation of the dollar that will likely occur.

    You don't want to be sitting on stocks or dollars when that happens, you want to have assets. That is my two cents anyway.
     
    WebdevHowto, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  7. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

    Messages:
    5,887
    Likes Received:
    96
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    240
    #7
    Mark to Market hasn't effected google
     
    soniqhost.com, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  8. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

    Messages:
    1,089
    Likes Received:
    71
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    88
    #8
    I wouldn't buy stocks. Perhaps some bonds if your looking to put capital somewhere.

    And what is with your mark-to-market rants Mia? You make zero sense.
     
    smatts9, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  9. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

    Messages:
    23,694
    Likes Received:
    1,167
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    440
    #9
    Sure it has. It's book value and stock price are no where near equal.

    I guess I should define Mark to Market for you.

    "The act of recording the price or value of a security, portfolio or account to reflect its current market value rather than its book value."

    The whole problem with Mark to Market is that it bases a stock or securities values on solely on the market price, not the liquidity of the asset itself.

    Unfortunately when measuring value, using the market as a metric, investors lose sight of the true value of the security they are purchasing. Many investors will leverage that over valuation that the market price has set against purchasing more futures or securities. The end result when and if the market begins to shift as it has, is that those assets lose their inflated value, and as such the investor is expected to make up for the difference. Since they don't have that difference, you've not only overstated your value, you now have overstated your losses as well.

    In other words, MTM, IMO artificially inflates the value of securities thus resulting in an inflation of losses.

    Mark to Market can make the most fucked of companies appear to have value which is not there.
     
    Mia, Oct 6, 2008 IP
  10. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

    Messages:
    15,826
    Likes Received:
    1,367
    Best Answers:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    455
    #10
    I would tend to agree, Google isn't a defensive stock play. There are much better defensive stocks around. I think Campbell was the only stock that manage to rise even during the Black Monday. I would prefer stocks like Walmart etc, discount chain stores that will be more favored by those looking to save money. I guess they will continue to do well.


     
    wisdomtool, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  11. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

    Messages:
    23,694
    Likes Received:
    1,167
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    440
    #11
    I prefer stocks that are backed by assets. Things like cash in the bank, and real hard assets. Market value does not mean shit.
     
    Mia, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  12. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

    Messages:
    15,826
    Likes Received:
    1,367
    Best Answers:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    455
    #12
    Banks still have a lot of real hard assets as in mortgaged properties but I won't touch them with a ten foot pole.

     
    wisdomtool, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  13. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

    Messages:
    23,694
    Likes Received:
    1,167
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    440
    #13
    Of course they do. But many of them over valued those assets. That's the problem.

    There is a difference between investing in the asset and investing in the investment house that invested in the asset.
     
    Mia, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  14. LogicFlux

    LogicFlux Peon

    Messages:
    2,925
    Likes Received:
    102
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    #14
    It's probably not a good time to buy growth stocks when we're about to go into a time of negative economic growth(if we aren't already).
    PG is a good old-fashioned, recession-proof, dividend-paying stock.
     
    LogicFlux, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  15. ShaneC

    ShaneC Peon

    Messages:
    387
    Likes Received:
    7
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    #15
    ehhhh. I don't think it's going to be another Great Depression, let's see over the next couple months if the bailout works.

    The best thing you can do in a market like this is fine tune your position in what are normally premiere stocks, but you have to find that sweet spot to buy in.

    Sony is at a 5 year low ;)
     
    ShaneC, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  16. homebizseo

    homebizseo Peon

    Messages:
    4,538
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    #16
    Buy houses instead of stock then rent it out to low income families through the government housing program.
     
    homebizseo, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  17. Shazz

    Shazz Prominent Member

    Messages:
    8,395
    Likes Received:
    453
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    330
    #17
    Stock - AIG
     
    Shazz, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  18. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

    Messages:
    15,826
    Likes Received:
    1,367
    Best Answers:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    455
    #18
    Well I bought it near its low, quite a good stock to buy and dump into the basement, I expect it to be my best investment ten years down the road.

     
    wisdomtool, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  19. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #19
    Anybody remember Digital computers. The 1987 crash led to their slow death.

    [​IMG]
     
    bogart, Oct 7, 2008 IP
  20. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

    Messages:
    15,826
    Likes Received:
    1,367
    Best Answers:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    455
    #20
    That was real ancient, but they are in a cut throat industry, technology changes are fast, barriers to entries are low, barriers to exit are low and buyers are spoilt for choices. Sellers depend on a few vendors for their main components. Not an easy market, something Dell is facing just that Dell has a great logistic system in place.

     
    wisdomtool, Oct 7, 2008 IP