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Stock Market Crash - October 30, 2009?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by bogart, Oct 30, 2009.

  1. #1
    bogart, Oct 30, 2009 IP
  2. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #2
    ~ If it is a black Monday at least it will be in November....Just how the market justifies - up 199 pts. then the next day down 240 pts. is a little mystifying.

    ~ The silver lining is that it did reach 10000 an important milestone if things do pan out.
     
    Breeze Wood, Oct 30, 2009 IP
  3. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #3
    THe Market was reacting to the -0.5 drop in September of consumer spending.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped was -260 on 10/28/1929 and -230 on 10/29/1929. The market bottomed on November 13, 1929.
     
    bogart, Oct 30, 2009 IP
  4. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #4
    ~ Always an excuse ' consumer spending ' definitely a rip tide occurring that may have a few legs - recent history was quick recovery's but not expecting as much for the present - earnings generally have been mediocre as well - especially for mine.

    ~ Of course those drops in '29' were far greater % wise than todays market.
     
    Breeze Wood, Oct 31, 2009 IP
  5. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #5
    The current rally is the result of excessive liquidity. The fundamentals aren't there. Especially, when you consider that real estate is expected to decline an additional 25% and bank loses continue to mount.

    A 'Bear Market' can occur had any time. Just as fast as the market went up, it could go down.
     
    bogart, Oct 31, 2009 IP
  6. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #6

    ~ There used to be an old adage - A Bull market climbs a wall of worry - the opposite to what might be expected.

    ~ Monday Nov.2 - I am not expecting a continuation of Fridays rout, hopefully not down any more than 50 pts. - After reaching 10000 will be ok for negative churning as might be expected with an attempt again at previous high.....and will disavow any knowledge of this post Monday evening.
     
    Breeze Wood, Nov 1, 2009 IP
  7. Traditione

    Traditione Well-Known Member

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    #7
    hahahahaha excess liquidity

    Effectively making each dollar in your pocket worth $0.09

    Yeah, don't pay attention to the stock market unless you want to have fun playing the silly little game...It is as bad of an indicator as GDP is and only serves to rally the emotions of people.

    These metrics are not analytics of actual data, it's speculative and trying to beat the curve before it comes; if this seems like it could be controlled, obviously.

    From going to 200 pt loss to 200 pt gain is a 400 pt swing = Yes, someone made a KILLING off that.

    And, in accordance with law, he who profits from a crime is guilty...Too bad we don't have some Securities and Exchange Commission to make sure this kind of stuff doesn't happen...
     
    Traditione, Nov 1, 2009 IP
  8. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #8
    Commercial lending giant CIT filed for bankruptcy on Sunday in New York bankruptcy court. CIT's bankruptcy will wipe out common and preferred stockholders and the U.S. government will lose the $2.3 billion it loaned CIT in last year bailout.

    The CIT bankruptcy may trigger a further stock market decline on Monday's market open.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33576310/ns/business-us_business
     
    bogart, Nov 1, 2009 IP
  9. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #9
    Why do they always call it a "black" Monday. Black is a good color. Red is a bad color. It should be Red Monday. For a Red October.

    Black means you are making cash. Red... not so much.
     
    Jackuul, Nov 2, 2009 IP
    bogart likes this.
  10. Traditione

    Traditione Well-Known Member

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    #10
    That always got me too..."I'm in the black!" - a good thing

    On that note, bear and bull markets?
     
    Traditione, Nov 2, 2009 IP
  11. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #11
    People were saying for a couple of years that Real Estate would crash.

    You really have to question what is going on with the market. What's goinng to happen if it continues to climb back to DOW 14,000? Like the whole subprime crisis never happened. The crash down will be a lot harder.
     
    bogart, Nov 2, 2009 IP
  12. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #12
    ~ Well, for Monday no 10th story windows to jump out of - up 76 pts.

    ~ My guess is it flushed most people out that day trade, for the above quote.
     
    Breeze Wood, Nov 2, 2009 IP
  13. abstroose

    abstroose Notable Member

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    #13
    I'm anticipating the collapse of the monetary system and US dollar as predicted by Carl J Calleman's interpretation of the Mayan Calendar. According to his research the collapse of the monetary system will come to light around the beginning of the sixth night of the Galactic Underworld (8th November 2009). He believes this could be the result of a demoralizing, poltical event.

    Whether you're aware of the Mayan Calendar or not, it's an interesting interpretation nonetheless.
     
    abstroose, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  14. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #14
    ~ 8th November 2009 - Isn't that this Sunday....

    ~ The train wreck has already occurred so there is some plausibility for Great Depression II kicking in but the Mayans aren't exactly alone in their prediction.
     
    Breeze Wood, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  15. Jackuul

    Jackuul Well-Known Member

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    #15
    Fuck the Mayans. They were a great people, but their calendar ends in 2012 because, well, quite a few years earlier their civilization ended. Thus they were unable to make any updates.

    You people will believe anything...

    ...send me money and I will sell you some land on the moon!
     
    Jackuul, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  16. debunked

    debunked Prominent Member

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    #16
    You can't sell the land on the moon, I have all the deeds!
     
    debunked, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  17. sachin410

    sachin410 Illustrious Member

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    #17
    if there is excessive liquidity in the system, asset prices are unlikely to crash.

    liquidity will exert an upward pressure on asset prices.

    cyclical corrections may happen in prices, but a crash will happen only if the central bank sharply tightens interest rates to suck out the liquidity.
     
    sachin410, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  18. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #18
    Bogart:

    There was not a "black monday". Not to say that there will or won't be a horrible stretch at some point in the future. Is there too much liquidity?

    whoa. Even after this enormous world wide recession....there is an amazing amt of world wide liquidity. Hey, if all things are consistent a lot of world wide money finds itself in the American economy and the American markets.

    That isn't guaranteed....but there are amazing unknowns.

    Okay. Here is my real life story from Black Monday 1987.

    I was a commercial real estate broker at the time. That morning my partner on a deal and I had an early "lease review meeting" with a big shot real estate attorney and our client. Our client was the head guy (ceo) of a large regional stock brokerage/investment house in the mid atlantic.

    My partner and I got to the attorney's office a little before the morning meeting. We're sitting there bs'ing w/ the attorney abt real estate stuff....and then the ceo of the brokerage house comes in.

    No internet in those days, limited usage of cell phones. My colleague, the real estate attorney and I had no idea what was going on in the stock market.

    The stock brokerage guy comes in and he says something I remember pretty damn clearly since it was so ominous. It was something like this to the attorney...."Billy, you better talk and talk fast. This is going to be the worst professional day of my career. The stock market dropped 200 points at the start of the day, rebounded about 100 points and was diving back downward when I walked out the door. (the Dow Jones dropped from about 2200 something to about 1700 during the day-->around 22-23% in a day).

    Whoa. That was serious.

    We actually had negotiated one of the best deals I've ever negotiated on behalf of a tenant client. (leverage and knowledge, man--leverage and knowledge).

    We zipped through the main points of the lease...and we all went on our way.

    When we got back to our office I took the elevator to the regional offices for what was then Prudential Bache Investments (with so many mergers--I have no idea who they are now). I knew those guys. I had moved them into our office building.

    They had locked off their offices...but they knew me and let me in. Some customer had committed suicide jumping out of a 20-30 story Pru Bache regional office in Miami because of the crash. The stock brokers were going nuts. The manager was dammed skittish. Except for a few people that they knew very well...nobody had access to their offices that day.

    It was a crappy crappy day.

    From that time forward, with some ups and downs, the Dow Jones went from that 1700 level on that October day in 1987 to around 10,000 by the end of the 1990's. Quite a friggin climb, huh? The nineties turned out to be a great decade for accumulating money and making wealth, overall.

    Anyways we did not have a "black monday" this past October. Who knows where the friggin market is going over time? :D
     
    earlpearl, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  19. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

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    #19
    The "black monday" is a killer. It sets off a panic and people stop doing things. Like you said, who knows when? If we could call the day, we would be millionaires shorting the market.

    Right now there's plenty of money put the velocity of money is real low. People aren't spending. Bank's aren't lending like they used to. But maybe that is a good thing. The money supply has increased 120%. In the first two years of Jimmy Carter the money suplly increased 112%. Things got better for a couple of years and unemployment was down to 5.6% in 1979.

    But the inflation that was unleased required that interest rates be raised to 20%. Imagine trying to sell a house in today's market with an interest rate of 20%.

    With a 120% increase in the money supply, we will need to raise interest rates to 35% to match what Paul Volcker did back in the '80s.

    But there are some unknowns. The inflation is being checked by China. They continue to take our dollars and stock Walmart with cheap goods. As long as they continue to back the dollar. Things will keep going. But how long can they continue?

    Real Estate is kind of tricky in that it's a hedge against inflation or a hard asset. Sure it can go down but it will always be worth something.

    The stock market really didn't do well back in 1980. At that time the DOW was worth one ounce of gold or $1000. It can happen again. A lot of people beleive that gold will hit 2k soon and oil is on it's way back to $100.
     
    bogart, Nov 4, 2009 IP
  20. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #20
    Uh, Bogart. That is what has occurred and continues to occur in this recession. Huge panic. People stopped spending. That is part of the issue with this recession. And it is lingering.

    Geesh. The market has done great since this past Spring. Did you predict it? I am certainly not a timing specialist.

    Its called a recession

    . Uh dude. I guess selling was tough then. Let me tell you something that I can relate to....buying a house with those rates s*cked

    And wouldn't that absolutely screw the economy?

    yeah...excepting Detroit ;)

     
    earlpearl, Nov 4, 2009 IP