Hey, have you heard of stocksandforex.org. It a relatively new site offering analyses and trade signal. It is really good and offers a 5 day free trial. Here, I shall post all I get from the 5 day free trial I subscribed for. You will get all for free here, I and then you may go and get another 5 days free. May 26th, 2008 The dollar struggled overnight, trading in a 1.5748-1.5792 range against the EUR and in a 103.13-103.41 range against the JPY. Markets are thin ahead of holidays in both the UK and US but risk appetite in general continues to take a beating as fears over inflationary pressures mount. Risks to U.S. data remain to the downside and the market is contemplating whether the Fed will risk one more cut in the face of mounting inflationary pressures. At StocksandForex.org we talk about another 25bp cut either in June or August. If so, with the ECB and BoE largely committed to maintaining stable rates in the medium term, the FOMC falling behind the curve in the current environment could prove highly destabilising for the dollar and further fuel inflationary pressures. Ahead this week, key inflation numbers from both the US and Eurozone are due and monetary policy expectations will be in line for another volatile week. May 26th 2008 continued AUD/USD 0.9602. AUS/USD returned to its recent trend upwards. Volatility rises. We are bullish in the 1 month period and see 0.9700. We will not take a position. Resistances: 0,9620 - 0,9650 Supports: 0,9590 - 0,9550 EUR/CHF 1,6160. EUR/CHF is in consolidation. It is approaching the key 1.6100- 1.600 levels. The volatility is decreasing. Stay neutral. Resistances: 1,6180 - 1,6210 Supports: 1,6130 - 1,6100 EUR/GBP 0,7965. EUR/GBP is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement.We expect the pair to return to the upside. We are bullish targeting 0.8000- 0.8050 in the 1-month period. We evaluate opportunities to enter long. Resistances: 0,7970 - 0,8035 Supports: 0,7940 - 0,7925 EUR/JPY 162.92. EUR/JPY reversed in the early hours of today and headed downwards. The pair moves without a trend. We remain bullish in the 1-month period and bearish for the 3- months. We will not enter, since risk is too high. Resistances: 162,90 - 163,10 Supports: 162,10 - 161,70 EUR/USD 1.5770. EUR/USD made a sharp pullback ahead of 1.5850 levels. We remain bullish, however, foreseeing weak US data, growing oil prices, and further easing of interest rtes. Resistances: 1,5490 - 1,5550 Supports: 1,5430 - 1,5350 GBP/USD 1,9788. GBP/USD is in consolidation after the last bearish move. Key 1.9720-30 levels were broken, which signals a strong bullish pressure. We remain on watch to establish a long position. Resistances: 11,9830 - 1,9850 Supports: 1,9805 - 1,9770 USD/CAD 0.9879 USD/CAD is in consolidation after the last bearish movement. Our short position there stalled around the 0.9850 support. We are bearish. We look to extend short position gains towards 0.9700 and 0.9650. Resistances: 0,9900 - 0,9940 Supports: 0,9860 - 0,9830 USD/CHF 1.0255 USD/CHF is in a downtrend. The pair moves slowly to the downside. We remain bearish. We can open a short position at 1.0250 targeting 1.000 (+ 250 pips) and 0.9800 (+450 pips). Stop loss is above the 1.0350 levels. Resistances: 1,0265 - 1,0310 Supports: 1,0215 - 1,0200 USD/JPY 103.31. USD/JPY is in moving to the downside. We remain bearish. Our stop loss barely escaped on Friday after a sudden pullback, but now we are confident of further gains on the short position. Resistances: 103,55 - 104,00 Supports: 103,05 - 102,75
The Week May 26th- 30th The US dollar is beginning to fade some of its recent gains given the lack of clear recovery in macroeconomic indicators - Friday's data showed existing home sales fell to 4.89 mn, to match the all-time low in April. Elevated oil prices are also keeping the USD on the weaker side against the euro and the yen given likely demand from oil-producing countries' reserve diversification. We expect the Conference Board confidence index on Tuesday to fall to 59.5 in May (consensus: 60.1), while the Michigan index due on Friday to decline to 59.5 (consensus) from 62.6 in Apr and 69.5 in Mar. Confidence aside, the real economy is also likely to show weakness with the April durable goods orders due out on Wednesday expected to have fallen sharply, led by the volatile civilian aircraft component. We expect core PCE prices due on Friday to have risen modestly in April. The ECB has been consistent with its policy stance throughout the past three quarters of the credit crisis. With market attention returning to central banks' tackling of inflation, the ECB's solid credentials in protecting price stability may yet prove invaluable for the EUR. Markets are still only pricing in at most one cut over the next 12 months, but scenarios may shift rapidly if data deterioration continues and oil sells off sharply. Macro trends continue to point to further downside and we expect the EUR to head lower as optimism over the economy fades. In Japan, oil prices continue to pressure the JPY and suggest carry demand remains firm in our view.
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May 27th 2008 The dollar was soft in quiet trading overnight, staying in a 1.5766-1.5819 range against the EUR and in a 103.27-103.53 range against the JPY. Equity markets in Asia are faring better on the back of a positive finish in Europe on Monday, while crude prices are holding firm around $133/bbl. US trading resumes today where the focus will be on both risk appetite and data. Further declines in the dollar's value has been identified as one the potential drivers of further price rises but it remains to be seen how the Fed can tackle this risk and maintain confidence. The BoJ faces the spectre of renewed instability as the government's nominee for one of two vacancies on the BoJ's policy board was leaked to the press. The government's choice of Professor Kazuhito Ikeo has already been rejected by the DPJ as a result of the leak. Ikeo would have brought hawkish credentials to the board, which may in part reflect new concerns over the current inflationary environment. BoJ Governor Shirakawa noted that short-term Japanese interest rates are currently at appropriate levels, while real short-term rates are at 'zero or slightly minus". May 27th 2008 Daily Update AUD/USD 0.9613. AUS/USD has been soft early this morning. The pair moves into the 0.9550- 0.9659 range. Volatility is low. We are bullish in the 1 month period and see 0.9700. We will not take a position. Resistances: 0,9620 - 0,9650 Supports: 0,9600 - 0,9580 EUR/CHF 1,6178. EUR/CHF is in consolidation. It is approaching the key 1.6100- 1.600 levels. Be cautious of a pull-back over there. The volatility is decreasing. In the 1-month period, we are bearish targeting 1.6050. We stay neutral. Resistances: 1,6170 - 1,6180 Supports: 1,6150 - 1,6130 EUR/GBP 0,7968. EUR/GBP is entered a flat consolidation and moves without a trend.We expect the pair to return to the upside. We are bullish targeting 0.8000- 0.8050 in the 1-month period. We stay neutral. Resistances: 0,7970 - 0,8040 Supports: 0,7940 - 0,7920 EUR/JPY 163.58. EUR/JPY moves to the upwards since yesterday early morning. The pair lacks power and momentum. We remain bullish in the 1-month period and bearish for the 3- months. We will not enter; risk is too high. Resistances: 162,40 - 163,80 Supports: 163,00 - 162,80 EUR/USD 1.5751. EUR/USD made a sharp pullback ahead of 1.5850 levels yesterday. Now it consolidates without a trend in what looks to be a flat correction. We remain bullish, foreseeing weak US data, growing oil prices, and further easing of interest rtes. We can take a long position at 1.5750 targeting 1.5900 (+150 pips) and 1.6000 (+250 pisp). Stop loss is below the 1.5700 levels. Resistances: 1,5800 - 1,5850 Supports: 1,5750 - 1,5700 GBP/USD 1,9750. GBP/USD is in consolidation after the last bearish move. Key 1.9720-30 levels were broken, which signals a strong bullish pressure. We predict a sharp move upwards by the end of the week. We can recommend a long position established at 1.9740. Targets are 1.9900 (+160 pips) and 2.000 (+260 pips). Stop loss is below the 1.97 levels. Resistances: 1,9800 - 1,9850 Supports: 1,9730 - 1,9800 Trade Signals GBP/USD Long from 1.9740 Forseeing a cable recovery by the end of the week that may well extend over the weeks to come, we can recommend a long position established at 1.9740. Targets are 1.9900 (+160 pips) and 2.000 (+260 pips). Stop loss is below the 1.97 levels. EUR/USD Long from 1.5750 Forseeing weak US data, further oil turmoil, and troubled equity markets, we can take a long position at 1.5750 targeting 1.5900 (+150 pips) and 1.6000 (+250 pips). Stop loss is below the 1.5700 levels. Source - http://stocksandforex.org
May 28th, 2008 The dollar was steady overnight, trading in a 1.5666-1.5712 range against the EUR and in a 103.89-104.33 range against the JPY. Oil prices fell to below $130/bbl despite speculations of further grow upwards. The oil price decline was a result of the dollar bouncing on the back of weak Eurozone data, rather than changes in crude supply/demand dynamics. This shows that the US is not alone in its macro-economic weakness reflected in market prices. In contrast, risks of revisions in growth expectations are higher in other G10 economies and their currencies may suffer accordingly. Ahead today, the market expects total durable goods orders to have fallen -1.5% in April after -0.3%. Orders outside of transportation items likely also declined (UBSe: -1.0%, cons: -0.5%), albeit not to the degree of total orders. Other data to be released today are the weekly mortgage applications (week ended May 23) and store sales indexes (week ended May 24). Minneapolis Fed Presidents Stern is scheduled to speak on the economy at 1650 GMT. The euro weakened as fears over the Eurozone economy returned to the fray. Although German GDP jumped to 1.5% q/q growth, the outlook ahead is far from certain. Government spending and capital investment were the key drivers of output, but private consumption and construction investment were lower. ECB is proving to be one source of consistency in the Eurozone. Governing Council members warned overnight that price risks are still considerable but Eurozone growth is solid. In other data, French business climate fell. We remain cautious on the EUR against the JPY and CHF and expect downside pressure to come from weaker data in the main economies. May 28th 2008 Updated WTI oil prices continued their slide, down to $127.10 at the time of writing, supporting risk appetite in turn. Eurozone capital flow data showed deterioration in the financial account; portfolio investments suffered another outflow on the back of exiting equity capital and FDI flows remained negative. German May CPI was better than expectations. The BoJ said that it was happy to stick with a wait-and-see stance, noting that the committee was watching both the downside risks to economic growth and the upside risks to inflation. The near-term outlook for the dollar remains mixed. Falling oil prices may not necessarily lead to a stronger dollar, and any resumption of WTI upside would again stoke inflation fears, pressuring the dollar. Trade Signals EUR/USD Closed at 1.5750 Identifying overbought pressure on EUR/USD we close the long position at 1.5750. 0 pips profit. AUD/NZD Short from 1.2200 Our AUD/NZD short trade was not activated yesterday. Now, we see an excellent oportunity to go short. Targets are 1.2100 (+100 pips) and 1.200 (+200 pips). Stopl loss is above the 1.2235-40 levels. AUD/JPY Long from 100.40 AUD/JPY looks very appetite for long position. It’s time to buy AUD. Enter at 100.40 (current level), stop=99.40; target=101.90. GBP/USD Long closed at 1.9800 Seeing overbought prices in the cable, we close our long position at 1.9800 (60 pips profit) USD/CHF Short stopped out A unexpected downside movement in oil prices and poor siwss data changed the pair trend. Our stop loss at 1.0300 was hit (50 pips loss) Source: http://stocksandforex.org
US Dollar Finds Traction Despite Very Weak Data - A Sign Of Strength? The dollar was inundated with economic releases today; yet the solid wall of bearish market-movers wouldn’t curb a steady dollar rebound. The return of US volatility from the extended holiday weekend allowed traders to reevaluate last week’s anti-dollar run and put the single currency back on an even keel. Ignoring the short-term response to today’s calendar though, the fundamentals certainly test the Fed’s optimistic forecast for a rebound in economic activity through the second half of the year. Among the many high-level reports, the top release was the Conference Board’s reading of consumer confidence for May. Economists had already projected a significant drop from the report after the University of Michigan marked a 26-year low in its own indicator. However, the sentiment gauge would still surprise with a greater than expected decline to 57.2 - the worst reading since October 1992. What’s more, Americans were growing more pessimistic on employment and income trends, which in turn depressed their plans to make major purchases. Realistically, if the world’s largest economy is too avoid an extended period of negative growth, the consumer sector will need to spend. In other news, the Richmond Fed manufacturing activity index joined the previously released Empire and Philly regional numbers by dropping back into contractionary territory. On the other hand, the session’s housing number were somewhat mixed. The lagging S&P/Case Schiller home price index merely confirmed what other leading indicators have shown. In the year through March, the composite inflation indicator slumped 14.4 percent to uphold the trend of consistently declining price from January 2007 and set a new record low. From the more timely new home sales report however, a major downward revision to March’s figure allowed a 3.3 percent jump in purchases over April. The components were more encouraging with prices rising 1.5 percent and inventories pulling back - both suggestive of improvement in activity. Looking ahead to tomorrow’s fundamental offerings, the number of indicators drops, but their potency does not. The durable goods orders gauge for April will measure capital investment while energy prices continually set record highs and consumer spending forecasts hit new lows. Euro’s Advance Curbed By Sharp Drop In German Consumer Confidence Record highs may be out of the euro’s reach on this recent run after EURUSD was cut back by a round of mixed data. The European session began on a strong note after final readings of German growth confirmed the economy indeed surged 1.5 percent through the first quarter – for the quickest period of expansion in 12 years. What’s more component data shows that a downward revision to personal consumption was easily offset by strong numbers for construction activity and business investment. However, this good news ended up giving the euro a boost for all of 10 minutes, until the German GfK consumer and French business confidence survey numbers crossed the wires. The German number revealed sentiment was shaken by rising inflation while French business leaders loathed the high euro and raw material costs. After the round of data, EURUSD would eventually tumble nearly 150 points. For Wednesday, the market may turn from growth back to bullish inflation trends with the German CPI numbers expected to mark a hearty rebound. British Pound Tumbles as UK Housing Sector Continues to Deteriorate The British pound’s consolidation over the past few days ultimately led to a sharp sell-off of the currency as UK traders returned to the markets. Indeed, GBP/USD plunged over 100 points over the course of two hours, and the release of BBA mortgage approvals did little to revive the pair. While mortgage approvals rose to 38,704 in April from 35,546 in March - the lowest since record keeping began in September 1997 - this level was still nearly 40 percent lower than a year earlier. It is rather clear that tighter lending standards and weakening consumer confidence are taking a toll on the UK housing sector, which will only add pressure to already-plummeting property prices. Nevertheless, consumer price growth is - and will likely remain - very strong in the UK, as evidenced by recent CPI figures, which will probably prevent the Bank of England from cutting rates aggressively. Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar Weaken on Plunge in Oil, Gold The Canadian and Australian dollars gave up some of their recent gains as oil and gold prices pulled back sharply, with crude futures finishing the day down 2.5 percent below $129/bbl while gold futures fell 1.9 percent to $907.70/oz. However, the declines were rather subdued as we saw a market-wide return to risk and carry trades, as evidenced by gains in the DJIA and declines in Treasuries. For what it’s worth, the commodity dollar pairs, including USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD continue to simply consolidate the extreme moves we saw over the course of early May. As a result, there is still potential for breakouts and reversals across the commodity dollars, but with little in the way of event risk in coming days, the consolidation may persist. Japanese Yen Falters as Risk Appetite Makes a Comeback The Japanese yen tumbled across most of the majors on Tuesday, as USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY all jumped amidst building appetite for risk. The moves were in line with the gains witnessed in the US stock markets, as the DJIA rose 0.55 percent to close at 12,548.35 while Treasuries tumbled, leading yields on 2 and 10-year notes to climb 7bps. However, this moves may be temporary as risk factors linger in the markets. Indeed, on Friday the BBA will announce the result of their discussions about the critical Libor rate, and any changes to this incredibly important interest rate could rock the markets. For more on what changes could be made, as well as alternatives to Libor, check out our special report on How the Search for a ‘New Libor’ Could Impact Carry Trades.’