Please read this before calling clickbank cheaters or crying for help

There probably isn't a day on this forum when there isn't a thread on the first page about clickbank shaving sales or cheating, or just cries for help.

Well, here's a 5 minute applied statistics course:
Suppose some traffic source converts 1 in 100.
Question: What are the chances that while remaining perfectly unchanged by outside factors (holidays, economy, etc) it will send 100 hops
that will yeild 0 conversions?
Answer: 36.6%

Question: Well how about 200 hops? Would that be unlikely?..
Answer: 13.4%

Question: How about 300 hops? This should never happen, right?
Answer: 4.9%

Question: 400?
Answer: 1.7%

It only gets under 1% after 450 hops. That's 4.5x the average conversion ratio.

Question: Well, even 4.9% isn't too likely. I would bet on such odds. But it happened anyway... And to the guy in the other thread as well... And to that gal my friend knows... I must be cheated, right?
Answer: Maybe you were. But before jumping to conclusions, multiply 4.9% by 110,000 active affiliates that clickbank had even a year ago. On average that's 5390 people that get cheated on average every day some days less, some days more.

1,000 hops not converting has a chance of 0.0043%. Pretty impossible odds... Yet, multiplied by 110,000 this yields more than 4 people per day on average who get "screwed big time".

Now what are the chances that these people would post their keyboard off on every forum because they have lost a ton of money on PPC or are just angry? I'd bet it would be pretty high.

Question: Well OK, but if I didn't have any sales yesterday, doesn't it mean that I must have twice as much today.
Answer: No. Conversion chance is not affected by previous conversions you've had or lack thereof. Sorry but somebody else had your conversions...

I'll leave it up to you to imagine what effect external factors such as holidays, weather, news, economy, stars and the moon would have. Some of these may actually affect the conversion ratio a lot.

On these arguments I rest my case, mates

 

Of course, while there is no actual proof of shaving sales or "cheating", you can't say anything 100% about CB's business, because you got no facts.

The thing, which worries me a bit is that there are waaaaaaay toooooo many assumptions. Must be a reason for that. It's not just newbies, who started affiliate marketing 2 days ago are complaining, but affiliates who's been using Clickbank for years.

 

i didnt really follow all your "math", but this is actually not the point.

There are super-earners which make consistent sales and then observe a significant drop which cant be explained natural fluctuations. If someone makes 500-1000/day for months and then there's weeks with ZERO sales it should raise eyebrows.

I myself (this time as a vendor) had people promoting my product(s) on their list. The poor marketer was not credited ONE penny despites many sales of my product made through his afflink.

I remember it well since as a vendor you SEE your stats and affiliates and have more control..i have NOT seen his affiliateID appear in my sales stats! Ok, this happened a while ago, but you get the idea!

Your math cant deny such facts, really.

 

I agree with the OP.. seem salot of peple are quick to blame CB for any drop off in sales etc without doing the proper research beforehand or considering all mitigating factors..

however CB does crach out sometimes and cost a couple of sales here and there.. and no doubt they miss the odd one too.. but as a whole.. life is much better for with CB in it
(imperfections and all)

 

What's a good CB tracking program? I want to setup something for my traffic.

I had a talk with the owner of an ebook I heavily promote... I was telling him about my troubles with no sales after years of sales with him daily, especially after an email sent out to my list, which usually results in dozens of sales at least, which leads me to have zero sales for that day... and guess what, the owner noticed a huge increase in sales that day.

I've been marketing CB products for a long time, and nothing pisses me off more then working hard for someone else and not making anything for it. I rather make nothing at all then someone else make all the money..

Anyway, what's a good tracking program I can use to put this to rest once in for all.

 

karabas this is great info.

Short and down to the point. Sweet.

 

I think the biggest ASSumption made by most ClickBank Complainers is that "My traffic hasn't changed" or "High Quality Targeted Traffic". In my opinion, some times a traffic source can sour or spoil over time. Maybe what lead people to your site has changed, or is outdated, and people are in a different mindset when clicking on your link etc...

 

Well as far as I Know there are lies, more lies, damned lies and then there are stats!

There are all sorts of reasons for affiliates not getting the reward for refering products such as their ID's being replaced by some purchasers, or the hoplink is not working as it should, crashing, browser, scripts, redirects or pure theft by whosoever!

This is all besides the Promotions, Lack of Promotions, Sun, Moon , Holidays, illness, tiredness, overworked, overstressed, underpaid or even possibly being overpaid that may also have an effect on why we are not getting paid our referal fee.

The end result is the same there are times when anyone of us can have this happening to them.

What we have to do is diversify and try and keep track by regularly checking, tracking reviewing and revising if necessary.

That way when and if anything goes wrong you may have a better picture of what, why, how, when and where it happened and you should be able to do something about it.

 

I'm not saying that I'm sure ClickBank doesn't cheat, I'm saying that
1) even assuming the traffic doesn't change most people underestimate chances of having a fluctuation by several powers of magnitude.
2) traffic does change and that can explain some fluctuations that would be statistically unlikely

This already gives a very good explanation to most of the rant threads here.

There are legions of clickbank affiliates and many of them are high-earning ones according to the interview that I've linked to. I wouldn't do hard math on this one but it seems to me that much fewer of them are angry than it should have been the case if ClickBank had a scam going on.

I find Occam's Razor appropriate here. Most of the the accusing threads here can be explained without assuming clickbank cheating. Even the theory about CC fraud blocking transactions I find more likely than that.

In the other thread I proposed a solid way to verify "Clickbank cheating" claims and so far no takers.

 

Yeah I'm not a buyer of clickbank shaving sales and crap... It would be really stupid of them to do that crap and like the OP said there are other mitigating factors as to why sales have fallen, I think people, especially newbies are too quick to point the finger and jump on the "blame clickbank" bandwagon!!

The economy, traffic fluctuations, etc can impact sales, but shaving sales - I don't think so!!

 

I don't think karabas can be knocked for quoting statistics.

What he has done is show statistical probabilities. People always think that there is foul play when there is an unlikely outcome. And they never notice when something goes their way. It's human nature.

 

Math involved is extremely simple:
If average conversion ratio is 1:100 then chances of 1 hop converting is 1%, therefore chances of it not converting is 99%.
Chances of 2 hop not converting are 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.9801
Chances of N hops not converting are 0.99 ^ N

All of this can be found in any Theory of probability 101 course, most likely within first 10 pages (including the introduction and foreword)

 

Good post, only the assumptions like 110k affiliates generate 1000 hops each daily are false.

 

I read this yesterday:

http://ripoffreport.com/reports/0/421/RipOff0421649.htm

Can't wait to see what happens

 

You got it, when there are unusual slow sales its the CC fraud blocking transactions. Some people find it difficult to undersand this but thats the truth. Its not just me saying this, there are lot of large publishers that do as well....

Its not a theory, its reality. After testing over 10 product for a period of 2 years, I never once found someone that downloaded any of my products of which i was not credited. However, lot of customers have been prevented from doing payments for certain periods - their CC fraud blocking.


Still not convinced? check out this http://www.kount.com/, Its a service for CC fraud detection (blocks credit cards etc). And guess what, its owned by keynetics, the mother company of clickBank.

Too difficult to believe the "CC Theory"?

 

Well, cookie stuffing is a real threat. Clickbank and other affiliate sites can't stop it. When a cookie is sent via https location data is not stored. It makes affiliate theft easy.

 

Nice thread, OP.

It reminds me of poker... People would come to the poker forums all the time crying about getting cheated, robbed, set up, doom-switched, cashout cursed, etc...

With everyone connected and knowing about the major forums, you'll get these posts.

Even though the chances you catch a major unlucky streak are small, the odds are pretty good that someone will catch one.

That person will then post on the forum.

Everyone remembers that post.

Nobody remembers the months of great sales they've had all year.

 

Yes, it is hard to imagine them actually cheating....
...and suddenly it's getting hard to imagine that they're not cheating.

 

Clickbank sucks, steals and stinks

Peace

Ps.Who ever say clickbank is good, he is probably someone from clickbank itself, otherwise even the best affiliate marketer in the world cannot say for sure that they don't shave.

PPS. I have seen clickbank shave my accounts with my own eye balls.

 

Wow, that's a strong statement to make. Did you take any pictures?