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Obama Approval Rating Falling!

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Corwin, Feb 24, 2009.

  1. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1321
    I've been out of town for a few days which is why I haven't been here with the bad news that Obama did indeed fall under 50% for the first time... even down to 48% yesterday (back up to 49% today.)

    That's bad news from my point of view, so I won't try to dress it up as if it's anything other than that.
    SEMrush
    Although seeing that Obama still leads all prospective 2012 Republican challengers makes me feel a little better.
     
    Zibblu, Nov 23, 2009 IP
    SEMrush
  2. Corwin

    Corwin Well-Known Member

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    #1322
    Well, from my point of view, the President's approval rating has little practical meaning other than being a talking point for news commentators.
     
    Corwin, Nov 24, 2009 IP
    Mia likes this.
  3. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1323
    That's interesting coming from the person that started a thread about his approval rating...

    I don't think the day to day fluctuations matter that much but his approval rating does have something to do with his political power as far as his influence of the congress. If he is popular they will feel more pressure to go along with what he wants done.

    And of course his popularity should be quite important in the 2010 elections. If he is popular that is a good thing for the Democratic party, obviously (and visa versa.)

    So I will not begin to pretend his approval rating is not important just because it's dropped under 50%, I think it is important... although certainly not to the point of going insane about every little movement.
     
    Zibblu, Nov 24, 2009 IP
  4. prophet666

    prophet666 Peon

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    #1324
    yes its true,but happens to everybody so no surprise
     
    prophet666, Nov 24, 2009 IP
  5. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1325
    A few things to consider, to put this all in context (all numbers here are Gallup approval ratings, I'm comparing apples to apples.)

    1.) Reagan's approval was at 35% on January 28, 1983 (of course he went on to win the '84 election in a landslide.) This shows that a low approval rating doesn't spell the end of a Presidency (unless it's close to the election!)

    2.) George HW Bush had 61% average approval during his Presidency. This is higher than any President besides Eisenhower and JFK (starting from Truman on.) This shows that a high approval rating doesn't mean that a President will win re-election. Bush had mostly very high approval ratings but he slipped way down as the election got closer and lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

    3.) Every President from LBJ through Dubya dropped under 40% approval at some point during their Presidency. Of all of those Presidents, Clinton is the one who actually had the highest lowest approval rating (37%.) Clinton had that 37% approval rating on March 26, 1993 (which wasn't long after he took office actually, I suppose this makes some sense as he won the Presidency with a lower % of the vote due to Perot's strong showing.)

    Looking at these numbers shows me a couple of things... One is that the American people are quite fickle. The other is that approval ratings only really matter (as far as re-election) in the months heading up to the actual election.

    Of course like I mentioned before, there's still an influence on how much "political capital" the President has. If Obama's approval was to fall down to 25% (Like Dubya's did) then he would have a very difficult time getting the Democrats in the congress to do what he wants.
     
    Zibblu, Nov 24, 2009 IP
  6. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1326
    The reality here though is that this presidents approval and disapproval rating directly correlates to the public's opinion of his performance.

    In other words, he's a miserable failure to coin a Bush hater catch phrase.
     
    Mia, Nov 25, 2009 IP
  7. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1327
    Uh... obviously.

    That's what approval ratings always mean.

    The point is that Reagan had a 35% approval rating in 1983 and he went on to win election in 1984 (by a huge margin.) Considering that, it seems quite silly to be overly concerned about Obama being at 49% in 2009 with an election coming up in 2012.

    George W. Bush got as low as 25% and he finished his Presidency with extremely low approval ratings. Comparing Obama being at 49% right now to that... just makes no sense. We'll see what happens but I think Obama has quite a bit of leeway moving towards 2012, especially with the very weak candidates that the Republicans are likely to put up.
     
    Zibblu, Nov 25, 2009 IP
  8. Reseg

    Reseg Peon

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    #1328
    You can make numbers say anything depending on which ones you decide to report ;)

    If you want to compare Reagan to Obama, there are some stats you might not like as much:

    -Reagan dropped a total of 11% points from his start to his lowest point in his first year (from 60% to 49%).

    -Obama dropped a total of 21% points from his start to his lowest point (so far) in the first year (from 69% to 48%).

    -If Obama continues to drop @ the same ratio to Reagan as he has so far, he will have a 21-22% approval rating in 2011 (his 3rd year, to compare to Reagan's drop to 35%).

    -Obama has had the highest drop of % points from his start to lowest point in his first year of any president from the last 50 years.

    Of course, that's just making #'s work in the other direction, though these are facts according to your own source of Gallup. Obviously, for re-election, it's going to come down to things that have a lot of time to change, like the economy.
     
    Reseg, Nov 25, 2009 IP
  9. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1329
    1. "your own source" --- no. Everyone's (who wants to be taken seriously) source.

    2. So you're saying I should be more concerned about Obama's 49% approval rating 3 years from an election than Reagan's 35% approval rating 1.5 years from an election because Obama had a higher initial approval rating? Seriously?

    Yes I get your point that you can twist numbers around to make different arguments, the problem is not all such arguments are created equal. For example the one you're trying to make is extremely weak.

    3. "If... continues at the same rate..." is a pretty meaningless thing to say. There's no reason to believe that will happen. Obama has a core base of support that is unlikely to abandon him anytime soon (although he'll certainly be testing that by escalating the war in Afghanistan which I'm sure a huge majority of his base is against.)
     
    Zibblu, Nov 25, 2009 IP
  10. Corwin

    Corwin Well-Known Member

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    #1330
    Well, regardless of your mode of political thought...

    Happy Thanksgiving, Everybody!!!
     
    Corwin, Nov 25, 2009 IP
  11. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #1331
    Obama moved back up to 50% today (51% to be exact) --- that's the good thing about going under 50%, it's a nice psychological boost when you go back over it again.

    Anyway, this is my last post in P&R for a long time. I'm going to take a break as I think it's a real waste of time here and not at all informative or interesting.

    I'm not saying I'll never come back, I'll probably be too drawn into politics around October 2010 to resist. But I'll try to hold off until then in hopes that I'll spend my time more constructively by not being here.

    Merry Christmas!
     
    Zibblu, Nov 29, 2009 IP
  12. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1332
    Looks like I got my Christmas present early!:eek:
     
    Mia, Nov 30, 2009 IP
  13. ncz_nate

    ncz_nate Well-Known Member

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    #1333
    Now if Nehemiah follows suit (which he appears to have done already) this forum will get kinda boring..


    We still have the muslims I guess, although I never really found them entertaining.
     
    ncz_nate, Nov 30, 2009 IP
  14. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1334
    There will never be a shortage of hate mongers over here. :mad:
     
    Mia, Nov 30, 2009 IP
  15. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #1335
    No funnier than the Klu Klux Klan, Adolf Hitler, Jesse Jackson, or Louis Farakahn, begging for your sympathy. Somehow, Mel Brooks(a Jew) was able to make Hitler funny. I guess you have to look past the hate and laugh at the idiocy.
     
    Obamanation, Nov 30, 2009 IP
  16. isuccess

    isuccess Peon

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    #1336
    With 30,000 going to war, his approval rating may dip even further. I never understood how the bad guys would get in to hurt us here in the U.S. unless they used our porous southern border. Not sure about this whole war thing. It makes no sense to me. IF more soldiers perish in Afghanistan, then I suppose BO's approval rating will tank.
     
    isuccess, Dec 1, 2009 IP
  17. willybfriendly

    willybfriendly Peon

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    #1337
    When, not if.

    "Our war on terror is only begun, but in Afghanistan it was begun well." - Dubya June 1, 2002
     
    willybfriendly, Dec 1, 2009 IP
  18. Breeze Wood

    Breeze Wood Peon

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    #1338
    ~ Obama's ratings could take a real hit over Afghanistan by those who voted for him as he keeps reverting to Republican leanings.

    ~ They should conclude Iraq first before accelerating Afghanistan - They spend our money like drunken sailors both parties with the same mistakes - The independent parties should have a field day.....if the election laws were not against them.
     
    Breeze Wood, Dec 1, 2009 IP
  19. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #1339
    Creating another Vietnam is about as close to Republican as a Bear is to an Ant.
     
    Mia, Dec 1, 2009 IP
  20. Firegirl

    Firegirl Peon

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    #1340
    The Inquisition, what a show...
    The Inquisition, here we go.....
     
    Firegirl, Dec 1, 2009 IP