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Obama Approval Rating Falling!

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Corwin, Feb 24, 2009.

  1. gworld

    gworld Prominent Member

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    #961
    Obviously you do not have the mental capacity to learn the math lesson that I am trying to teach you but if you read the posts in this thread, you will see everyone is in agreement that you are the only ass here who still refuses to admit he doesn't know what he is talking about. ;):DSEMrush
     
    gworld, Aug 17, 2009 IP
    SEMrush
  2. Corwin

    Corwin Well-Known Member

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    #962
    THIS is what I was responding to, when I wrote "most polls poll registered voters. Rasmussen polls likely voters, which is why Rasmussen is the most popular, accurate, and respected." That's not very tricky to me, unless I'm missing something here.

    As I understand it (and I'm not sure what day's Rasmussen polling I'm quoting here),
    30% Strongly Approve of President Obama's job as President,
    19% merely Approve, which gives him an overall approval rating of just 49%.

    This means that 51% disapprove in some way of the job he's doing.

    Of course, I did all this without my calculator so I could be wrong...:)
     
    Corwin, Aug 17, 2009 IP
    northpointaiki and debunked like this.
  3. Brokenspear

    Brokenspear Peon

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    #963
    Yeah, Obama is the problem.

    Bring back the Republicans, they always get everything right. They are always on the side of the people, never bow down to special interests or money (especially OIL), never get caught doing anything shady or morally/ethically questionable (anonymous gay sex?), are religiously superior (gay sex?), never fought a bad/stupid/ill-intentioned war, and never ever increase taxes while somehow (miraculously) lowering the deficit!

    Yes, Republicans, they are the ones that can lead us out of these troubled times and back into the Golden Age. Indeed.

    Bush was a pretty good representation of the Modern American - kinda stupid.
     
    Brokenspear, Aug 17, 2009 IP
  4. jkjazz

    jkjazz Peon

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    #964
    Yep, but now it's the Democrats that are at bat. It's their turn to show the world how to do things right. I'm not sure that we'll survive another 3 1/2 years of this.
     
    jkjazz, Aug 17, 2009 IP
    debunked likes this.
  5. pizzaman

    pizzaman Active Member

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    #965
    just noticed something. pugs are going crazy. just look at the tags of this thread. looooooooool
     
    pizzaman, Aug 17, 2009 IP
  6. northpointaiki

    northpointaiki Guest

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    #966

    Hi Corwin - good post. I haven't actually seen the poll to see how it's constructed (the setup, in other words, if it's some kind of thermometer thing - "on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being "strongly disapprove" and 5 being "strongly approve," what's your feeling on the President's healthcare proposal?"; or, a choice from among 4, strongly/approve, strongly/disapprove), but I agree with your breakdowns.

    (Note - sorry for the "bolds" everywhere, but a long post, with some added edit points after the fact; in the event folks don't want to read through, wanted to provide a few points for salient thought).

    [EDIT: I did see his methodology, and see it is the latter - the 4 choices, not a thermometer rating from 1-5].

    Now, to the poll itself (back on your topic):

    One interesting thing is that on August 10, 9% more were strongly disapproving than strongly approving, which if it broadens, may mean trouble down the road for the Prez's plans, or his hope to return. An engaged and mobilized opposition is more difficult than a weakly supportive position for the opposition, as was seen in the election itself. The GOP was anemically attached to McCain, and many undecideds leaning his way fled for the hills once Palin started really coming before the light. However, the gap between "strongly approve" and "strongly disapprove" is a key marker, in some contexts, it seems to me. (Interesting discussion on the issue of "strong" feelings as an indicator of behavior.).

    I do have an issue with "thermometer" type surveys, generally - these are "feeling" type questions, usually, and feelings are generally extremely fickle. While not a true "thermometer," (literally, "warm, neutral, cold"), I suspect the questions are constructed around "feelings," though I really don't know. If so, the better surveys, to me, are those that hit home on behavior - and then squaring that behavior with the subject in question, as an augury of how he or she is "doing."

    The other thing I'd need to see is what construction Rasmussen is using to model "likely" voters. Since this is key to Rasmussen's numbers, if his methods used to predict "likely" - those who are actually going to the polls - are good, then he's on. If his methods are faulty, then he's off.

    He says it strips in some way younger voters, who say they're "feeling" one way, but won't vote. If this is his only correlation, then I'd be pretty suspicious of his numbers. Rasmussen isn't the only firm using "likely voter" models - in fact, many do - See Gallup, for instance. (I may be wrong, but I think Gallup created the "likely voter" notion). What matters, is the modeling they use to arrive at "likely."

    If it's truly a sampling, excising some age-limit as "unlikely to vote," that model takes no accounting of a generational paradigm shift in politics, when you precisely have a shift in which generation tends to get out to the polls - as happened during the current election.


    [Edit: I did go to his methology page, and saw the following:

    -which can be problematic, as a model, if it doesn't deal with the fact that this "rave review" thing did, in fact, translate to votes this last election- in a way that hadn't been seen in generations.]

    This kind of deeper thinking, when it comes to methodology, is important. Such a paradigmatic demographic shift brought the downfall of the Soviet Union - when few were predicting it. An engaged, younger intelligentsia as a mobilized "class," tastes a bit of the revolution of rising expectations engendered by Gorbachev's perestroika, and voila, reform was swept from under him, when he never intended it to get away like this.

    Anyway, I digress. But to bank on numbers, it's just important to see the logic behind both the sampling and query construction, to see if they are reflecting, or will reflect, real-world behaviors. I'm piqued to look at Rasmussen more closely, particularly as he regularly has outliers vis-a-vis other models.

    At any rate, beyond his methodology, these "strongly" approve/disapprove numbers are intriguing to me. I'd personally prefer to see a principled, engaged opposition - a war of fundamental differences in economic viewpoint - anyday, as opposed to questions of the type on whether Obama really prays at church, or is just faking it, etc.

    Good post, Corwin. I hope I've contributed some useful food for thought as well. :)
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2009
    northpointaiki, Aug 18, 2009 IP
  7. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #967
    Is it really that hard for your to understand? :confused:
     
    Mia, Aug 19, 2009 IP
  8. eric8476

    eric8476 Active Member

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    #968
    I know Obama said in three years the economy and jobs would improve significantly but can we wait that long?
     
    eric8476, Aug 19, 2009 IP
  9. gworld

    gworld Prominent Member

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    #969
    :confused:

    Just read the posts above. There is a total agreement that the only one who doesn't understand is you, but considering the low level of your knowledge in math, most likely your English reading and comprehension is not much better. ;):D
     
    gworld, Aug 19, 2009 IP
  10. Corwin

    Corwin Well-Known Member

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    #970
    Whatever you are talking about, you are wrong.

    There is not total agreement. I, for one, do not agree (mostly because I have no idea what you are talking about). So please, feel free to speak for yourself all you want, but you are being totally misleading when you pretend to speak for all of us.
     
    Corwin, Aug 19, 2009 IP
  11. gworld

    gworld Prominent Member

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    #971
    Are you saying that you also think like mia that 1/3 and 2/3 are equal and 66%+49%=100%? From your previous post it seemed you know how to count and you did it even without a calculator. :rolleyes:
     
    gworld, Aug 19, 2009 IP
  12. Corwin

    Corwin Well-Known Member

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    #972
    @gworld, don't try to take me off-topic from my immediately previous reply. I'm saying that you have no business pretending to speak for everybody.

    I have the integrity to speak only for myself and nobody else. When you pretend to speak for everybody, you take dishonest posting to a whole new level.

    I can chuckle at the childishness of being insulted, and maybe my math has had typos, but that's tiny peanuts compared to the manipulation of attempting to speak for everybody.

    Speak for yourself, and post for yourself, and don't pretend to speak for anyone else - OR drag anyone else into your own petty disagreements.

    I don't mind it when people are wrong. But I simply can't tolerate when someone is blatantly manipulative.
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2009
    Corwin, Aug 20, 2009 IP
  13. gworld

    gworld Prominent Member

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    #973
    Have you forgotten to take your Prozac? :rolleyes:
     
    gworld, Aug 20, 2009 IP
  14. debunked

    debunked Prominent Member

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    #974
    I nominate this post for the DP best post award (too bad there isn't one.)

     
    debunked, Aug 20, 2009 IP
  15. Mia

    Mia R.I.P. STEVE JOBS

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    #975
    Moderation here seems to be going south again... Is anyone moderating P/R anymore???

    Ditto!!!

    No, only you are saying that. Not I. You've come to that conclusion all on your own. How? Only God knows.


    No, its you that does not understand. You've either misinterpreted what was posted, or you never bothered to read what was posted in the first place.

    Join the club. No one here knows what he's talking about either.
     
    Mia, Aug 20, 2009 IP
  16. poytspot

    poytspot Peon

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    #976
    I'm expecting this to happen
     
    poytspot, Aug 20, 2009 IP
  17. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #977
    Even with Obama's approval ratings taking a hit as of late (mostly due to the ridiculous lies being spread about health care reform by right wingers/insurance companies... BTW I think there's some early signs that those lies are starting to run out of steam... in the long run the truth will win out) Obama is still way out ahead of Sarah Palin according to a new Marist poll of a potential 2012 general election match-up:

    Obama 56%, Palin 33%, Undecided 11%

    Now you may be thinking.. yeah but there's no way the Republicans will actually nominate Palin... Right?!?! Well... Obama may actually be so lucky the way things look now... According to this same poll the Republican nomination is currently a dead heat between Romney, Huckabee, & Palin as of right now. And imagine if Huckabee doesn't run... Where do you think his votes are going?

    Admittedly there's a good shot that someone else will pop up and challenge these three exceedingly weak candidates at some point (who??!?) .. But... I think Obama's approval ratings would have to be well below 40% on Gallup for any of these three clowns to beat him.
     
    Zibblu, Aug 21, 2009 IP
  18. jkjazz

    jkjazz Peon

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    #978
    Zib, the wishful thinker. Obama is crippling this country financially. Spend, spend, spend... 1.6 trillion dollar deficit for this year alone? That's more damage that Bush did in all of his eight years in office. And you blame his unpopularity on ridiculous lies? I understand that those of you that are standing in line for his handouts are upset, but let's try to stay truthful, OK?

    Your lame attempts at defending yourbama will not change anything. He is hanging himself. I'm surprised that you are not bright enough to see that tax and spend programs are not popular, especially in a recession...

    Your messiah has become the king of deficit spending. Didn't he campaing promising to pay off the deficit?

    Did you see this story?

    Obama to raise 10-year deficit to $9 trillion

     
    jkjazz, Aug 22, 2009 IP
  19. Zibblu

    Zibblu Guest

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    #979
    jkkazz - nah. The accusations of building up the deficit by the party that invented deficit spending (Ronald Reagan) and then perfected it (George W. Bush) fall extremely flat. That has next to nothing to do with Obama's approval ratings dropping (down to 53% today from a high of 69%.)

    His approval ratings were holding above 60% until the health care reform battle really started heating up. That's what dropped him under 60% - which is why I believe if he can get health care reform passed (and he must) and people realize that they actually like it (which they will, just like Medicare is overwhelmingly popular) he will actually be doing quite well (especially as the economy recovers, which I believe it will by 2012.)
     
    Zibblu, Aug 22, 2009 IP
  20. jkjazz

    jkjazz Peon

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    #980
    You're kidding right? How you can ignore Yourbama's deficit spending is beyond me. 1.6 TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICIT this year alone and you won't even acknowledge it? How can we even BEGIN to take you seriously???

    I'll remind you AGAIN that yourbama will have a LARGER deficit in his FIRST YEAR than George W had in EIGHT. Now tell me who is the KING for deficit spending?

    I keep forgetting that you want him to spend OUR money on YOU. No doubt that you are at the front of the line. Sorry...I'll try to remember from now on.


    Well, at least you are no longer in denial. I can at least give you credit for that.

    You believe he can get health care passed because it makes him increasingly unpopular? I don't know ANYONE dumb enough to believe that.


    Why?


    Again, it's zib, the wishful thinker. If wishes were fishes...

    Nobody believes that the government can control spending on ANYTHING, except you, of course. So how are we going to provide health care for all the extra people like you, that refuse to support themselves without raising taxes? You can't unless we use more deficit spending. Now acording to you, that won't happen because George W is no longer in office... right???
     
    jkjazz, Aug 22, 2009 IP