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Neat video on predicting payperclick changes with adsense

Discussion in 'AdSense' started by Worldwid, Jan 11, 2006.

  1. #1
    Hey guys,

    This is a neat little video from the maker of article bot using stochastics (a formula used in the stock market, also known as Moving Averages from the Forex currency market), he is able to pretty accuractly depict when he would start earning more or less per click on his adsense account. Interesting 15 minute video to watch when you have nothing to do.

    http://www.articlebot.com/tutorials/adstochastics.html

    (Doesn't seem to work in firefox btw)
     
    Worldwid, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  2. Jarodboy

    Jarodboy Notable Member

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    #2
    Very interesting theory
     
    Jarodboy, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  3. Gu4rdian

    Gu4rdian Active Member

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    #3
    Very interesting, indeed.
    I should've pay attention more in math class...
     
    Gu4rdian, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  4. IamNed

    IamNed Peon

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    #4
    I saw clips of that videa as wel.. So boring I only watch half of it.

    Kinda a pointless video since most poblishers dont even make the 100 a day he makes.

    And EPC will always keep going down over the long term as more people jopin the publisher network and click frausd so on
     
    IamNed, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  5. Worldwid

    Worldwid Peon

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    #5
    yeah, it will always go up and down... Thats why he made this video, because it goes up and down. The point is keeping track of so you know before-hand when it will go up and down. If you advertise a site which primary revenue was adsense, with a program like adwords, you would know when to start bidding more, or bid less because your either about to start getting paid more or you know what your getting paid is about to drop.
     
    Worldwid, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  6. fryman

    fryman Kiss my rep

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    #6
    Could you give us a brief summary of the video, Worldwid? I'm sure many of us don't really feel in the mood of watching a guy talking about stocks and stats for 15 minutes :D
     
    fryman, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  7. dadasays

    dadasays Peon

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    #7
    I'm a closet Austrian economist, and I don't hold a lot of faith in the stochastics, but they are surprisingly accurate in certain situations.

    Break down stochastics though and look at the Austrian cycle which makes more sense. Austrians believe that when demand goes up, price goes up. When supply goes up, price goes down.

    This is how AdSense fluctuates. When there is a high supply of ads and a low demand of ads, CPC will go up (you'll get better ads). When there is a low supply of ads and a high demand of ads, CPC will go down (you'll get worse ads).

    This trending is correct, too, as you'll see more people get into AdSense when CPCs are high (demand low, supply up) which will change the situation to the reverse (demand high, supply low) driving CPCs down and driving many people away from AdSense ("I'm quitting AdSense!!!"). After they leave, the situation reverses again.

    The answer? Stick with it.
     
    dadasays, Jan 11, 2006 IP
  8. mark1_01

    mark1_01 Peon

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    #8
    Ahem... I had no time to watch the video, but... stochastic and moving average are two formulas quite different. I cannot immagine how stochastic is known as moving average :confused:
    They are commonly used as indicators to trade the stocks, futures, commodities, currencies etc. markets.

    Moving average is generally used to "measure" the trendiness of a market, Stochastic is generally used to "predict" overbought/oversold levels (oscillator)
    Just for the record ;)
     
    mark1_01, Jan 13, 2006 IP
  9. BuildHome

    BuildHome Active Member

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    #9
    Nice video but he didn't really a lot of money...right? :|
     
    BuildHome, Jan 13, 2006 IP
  10. Johnburk

    Johnburk Peon

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    #10
    Interesting video...

    Is it me or does this guy sound like Bill Clinton?
     
    Johnburk, Jan 13, 2006 IP
  11. Worldwid

    Worldwid Peon

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    #11
    Im only familar with moving averages as I have only traded in the forex market and is my indicator of choice, but the way he explained stochastics seemed quite similar, if not the exact same thing -- he took the averages of 2 sets of days, and waited for the fast to cross the slow as an indication of a 'market change' (ppc change in this adsense example), seems pretty similar to me.
     
    Worldwid, Jan 13, 2006 IP
  12. dsforsaken

    dsforsaken Banned

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    #12
    thanks, that was a pretty intneresting video.
     
    dsforsaken, Jan 14, 2006 IP
  13. IamNed

    IamNed Peon

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    #13
    The video sucked
     
    IamNed, Jan 14, 2006 IP
  14. Bean

    Bean Active Member

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    #14
    Did you understood it?
     
    Bean, Jan 14, 2006 IP
  15. IamNed

    IamNed Peon

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    #15
    Bean head, I did understand it

    I jsut thought it ws pintless cuase most peple dont make 200 a day wth adsense adn if thois method really worked he would use it to predict the ctual stock market and make real money

    Also these formulas dont always work or else traders wuldnt fail 70 percent of the time

    And he acts like such a ********* too during the presentation It makes me not want to wah the whole thing
     
    IamNed, Jan 14, 2006 IP
  16. hyipfarm

    hyipfarm Peon

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    #16
    hmmm why m i not able to watch it. is it down?
     
    hyipfarm, Jan 15, 2006 IP
  17. BuildHome

    BuildHome Active Member

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    #17
    Its still working for me...
     
    BuildHome, Jan 15, 2006 IP
  18. mark1_01

    mark1_01 Peon

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    #18
    Ok I watched the video.

    It's not stupid at all.

    Just remember you need a high number of data sample to validate a recurring pattern.

    It's all about market efficency, when you spot a market inefficency (in this case a recurring "behavior" of adsense), you actually have an "edge" and can profit from it.

    It's a bit like when you find a keyword with a lot of traffic and low bidding on Overture, you just found an inefficency.

    Now how all this is applicable to Adsense and is there really a "predictable" ricurrent pattern? That's your job to answer.

    Yup many traders lose money using TA, most of them lose because they are not disciplined enough to follow a given system even when they find a good one or they are under capitalized, and last but not least you are "fighting" with the most brilliant minds in the world.

    Applying TA to a less competitive market, can bring interesting results.

    PS.
    The guy uses a 7 period Moving Average to smooth the resulting stochastic indicator,in other words, to lessen the noise.
    He never states they are the same formula, because they are not.

    Pedantic is my second name:D
     
    mark1_01, Jan 15, 2006 IP
  19. IamNed

    IamNed Peon

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    #19
    I make big money in the stock market. I dont use moving averges and any of that stuff. Just buy stocks that go up.
     
    IamNed, Jan 15, 2006 IP
  20. mark1_01

    mark1_01 Peon

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    #20
    Heh.
    Yup and it works if you choose the strongest stocks in the market.

    But how do you define a strong stock?
    By it's symbol ?
    Nope by several parameters, so in the end you are using some sort of Analysis.

    TA is just a map to make your "journey" easier, some people don't need a map , but they are a minority
     
    mark1_01, Jan 15, 2006 IP