US future is pessimistic, the world becomes multipolarised: A brief article is here: http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3810535,00.html P.S: I actually went to the original source's website.....and found nothing, they sell this document, it says order now, hm, ok.
Well in a shorter time frame the BRIC countries are screwed or have already been screwed. Brazil and Russia relied on China's unending demand for building materials and China was like Vegas on crack building shit everywhere. There is no more credit available to those countries to enable this type of unchecked growth.
New link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7741241.stm I want to disagree with you, russia not depended on china(they decided to build branch to china from Siberian's oilfields only at end2007/2008 and most of channel's oil must be transported to Japan and Korea.) also most of china's products is low cost and dont have demand in average class of russian people. About Brazil - they completely not depended on china, they depended on usa, i thought all know about it..
Russia relies heavily on oil and China is a huge consumer of their oil. Russia is eating through their FX reserves like they are Pac-man or something. There is huge demand destruction where is Brazil supposed to offload all their crap? Nowhere. There are reasons why these countries, even though rich in resources, remain poor and they will go back to where they use to be. It all, for the most part, boils down to their governments and laws. The US has a huge leg-up on the rest of the world with its easy access to capital and we have good property rights and a stable government. There is a flight of capital to safe investments. They are moving straight out of Russia, Brazil, India and China and right back to the US. redvok: You shouldn't disagree. Look at the lending spreads of stable, established gov'ts vs. the others. Access to capital was the main reason for this 15 year blow up of emerging nations, now it is gone.
I can tell that Russia never relied on chinese products, in fact if you ever start a business in Russia with products labeled "Made in China" - you will fail. People here always look at labels, and they hate chinese products + they spend much more $$ on themselves(clothes, make up, etc) than the western people. Europe does rely, I was surprised when I've lived in UK of how many products from China in shops. Regarding the credits, how come then that China become the creditor of US now? China tops the list of countries who have foreign reserves. You are saying that its the other way around? smatts9, you are talking about oil? What about gas and all other resources? In fact Russia is the biggest gas producer. Also, the resources are limited, and by 2025 believe me the price will not drop, if not triple. Do you know what countries are leading in terms of GDP growth? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_growth_rate Top 4 out of big ones: China India Russia Brazil Can you find some familiar countries in that list at least in top 50?