My take on feb 5th - rest of the election

As sent to a school newspaper reporter. Let me know if there's anything thats egregiously wrong - this was all just off the cuff. Alternatively, do you agree/disagree?

basically, the republican's side was pretty par for the course. Everyone expected mccain to do a lot better than all the others - though some that the he would do better than he did.
01:51
McCain benefited a lot from giuliani - not from his endorsement so much, though that helped
02:29
but because giuliani pushed to make a bunch of the republican primary states winner take all - who ever wins gets all the delegates, like the regular election
02:44
this is different from the democrats, where the delegates what proportionally
03:16
Huckabee did a lot better than people thought he would, he took 7-9ish states, despite getting very little media attention
03:17
and being broke
03:39
Romney sucked it up(rephrase that) - he put 4.3 million into california and still got his ass beat there - thats one of the main reasons why he dropped out
03:44
most likely
03:48
the democrats was split pretty evenly
03:56
hillary got the two largest - new york and california
04:41
However, thats not nearly as big of a deal as mccain getting new york and california for the republicans, because while those two states are winner-take-all for the republicans, they aren't for the democrats, so obama got quite a few delegates from those states too
05:01
Obama actually probably had quite a bit more support than the numbers made it look like in california
05:33
Something like 50% of the votes in the democratic primary were cast prior to the day of the primary via early voting/voting by mail
05:48
so a lot of hillary's margin came from people voting for her right after her upset in NH
06:09
when she beat obama despite consistently polling 5-10points behind
Looking ahead, with romney dropping out of the race, without McCain doing something silly like raping an intern, he's got a lock on the nomination
07:56
The democrats race is obviously a lot tighter and probably won't play itself out for quite awhile, but I'd give Obama the edge for a couple reasons
08:48
1. He's pulling in buckets of money - he's raised over 7.5 million since the polls closed on february 5th
09:02
, while the clinton's just put 5million of their own money into their campaign
10:15
2. You have to look at the states that are coming up - The next few states are Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, virginia, maryland, district of columbia
10:36
Louisiana, DC, Maryland - all with a heavy black population
10:45
obama's most likely going to tear shit up there
10:52
20+point margin, like South Carolina
11:59
Nebraska - he took a bunch of the westish states on super tuesday, Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, Minnesota
12:03
all of those went obama
12:11
Same deal for Washington
12:24
Maine, I believe has been polling in favor of obama
12:31
Virginia's going to be closer
12:52
but with a bit of luck, its a distinct possiblity that obama could sweep all of those states
13:00
giving him a ton of momentum
13:09
as he moves into the big delegate states like texas on march 5th
14:01
Texas will be tough for him, because of the hispanic population that generally goes clinton, but its also got a bunch of anti-clinton whites and a sizable black population that will overwhelmingly go for him, and if he can get the 1/3rd of the hispanic vote he got in cali, he's set.
14:19
So while its far from a sure thing, I'd give obama a decent edge for the nomination, though its far to early to call
14:56
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My take on feb 5th - rest of the election

alexthapyro Peon

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My take on feb 5th - rest of the election

alexthapyro Peon

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