I think you're right. It seems to me that we saw the height of Microsoft perhaps 7 or 8 years ago. Unless they do something revolutionary, like Apple, Google, or many other companies that may be big, but are still innovative, then I think MS will continue to tumble. They'll be like so many huge companies that had their hayday, but in 20 years people will be saying, "remember Microsoft when they were the next big thing? Now look at them, we hardly even hear about them now!" Another company that comes to mind is Sony. They are really falling behind to Samsung (electronics, tv's, etc) and Nintendo. They used to be the big thing with super high quality tv's and the Walkman.
I think that Microsoft is so far away to compete with Google so far, we will see what will happen in the future ???