Media Blackout? What else is new? The Revolution will not be televised.

guerilla. I agree. I honestly think Paul has the best chance of any Republican to win the general nomination. He's the only Republican who has any shot at winning any Indepedent/Dem voters. I'm a lifelong Democrat who voted for Clinton, Gore, and Kerry and yet I would vote for Paul over any mainstream Democrat in the general election.

I just can't imagine Huckabee, Romney, or Giuliani winning... MAYBE McCain would have a shot?

 

I've said this time and time again, and it's fallen on deaf ears. The minute the Republican candidate is nominated this summer, the immediate focus is to find a way to attract that 20% of swing voters to the Republican side. There will always be the majority of voters who just vote along party lines, but the candidate who wins the election will be the one who can most successfully court undecided voters, moderates, and woo some over from across party lines.

Look at the biggest landslide victory in history, Reagan; he was well liked, drew in Democrats, and absolutely wrecked in his election because he was able to draw people from all sides. This is the type of candidate that needs to be nominated to win in 2008. Do you think an evangelical radical like Huckabee could honestly be elected after 8 years of Bush? Huckabee reminds me the most of Bush of any candidate on stage, does anyone disagree? He spends like a liberal but he's a hardcore social conservative, the Democrats will bury him. What you see with the Paul campaign is an ideology that attracts voters from every category, and rather than embrace it, many of you reject it, when in just a few months, you'll be wishing to have that exact quality in your nominated candidate.

 

Yes, Huckabee reminds me of Bush too. It seems clear that Huckabee is mostly getting support from the small group of people that *still* think Bush is doing a good job. That group of people is not going to be enough to beat the Democrats, especially if it's Obama or Edwards instead of Clinton.

I do think Clinton is somewhat more vulnerable just because of her own high negatives.

 

Getting Stingy With Debate Invitations (CBS News)

 

"Likely Republican Support" is the same as using hind sight to justify opinions about the here and now based on what we already know about the past. "Likely Republican Support" and money have nothing to do with the requirements that are in play.

To even try and use that as an argument is extremely weak.

What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if...
What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if...


To even try and use that as an argument is extremely weak.

What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if...
What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if... What if...

What if all these "likely" voters want Hillary or Obama and could care less about anyone on the Republican side?

To even try and use that as an argument is extremely weak. 'cough"...

 

That "small group" is about 27% ahead of that HUGE group of RP supporters..

 

It is not 'what if' Mia, if you trully think RP doesn't have any support beyond 'likely republican' voters, I'm sorry to say but you're trully blind in this case.

How do you figure?

Please don't tell me you're using the same lame method as Gtech.

'likely republican support' when picking a candidate does not equal the same thing as 'do you think the president is doing a good job' the numbers are totally different.

 

"likely"

Definitions of likely on the Web:
[SIZE=-1]has a good chance of being the case or of coming about; "these services are likely to be available to us all before long"; "she is likely to ...
probable: likely but not certain to be or become true or real; "a likely result"; "he foresaw a probable loss"
expected: expected to become or be; in prospect; "potential clients"; "expected income"
probably: with considerable certainty; without much doubt; "He is probably out of the country"; "in all likelihood we are headed for war"
within the realm of credibility; "not a very likely excuse"
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]Probability is the chance that something is likely to happen or be the case. Probability theory is used extensively in areas such as statistics, mathematics, science and philosophy to draw conclusions about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying mechanics of complex systems.
[/SIZE]

 

Mia you are only looking at 'likely' from past elections, the term does not work here. Only if you want to put RP down does it. 'likely' would work here if they polled and asked people ok are you going to 'likely' vote republican this time around, not simply because they did last time around.

There is a difference, you for some reason don't see that

 

Public poll data and basic mathematics.

What if...

 

For what is this you are answering?

In any case you're skewing numbers to mean more than they do

 

If I did not see your point, would I have bolded, underlined and italicized "probability?"

You are basing your Ron Paul support deficit on a complete unknown. Is it Probable (likely) that there is more RP support? Of course. Is it likely (probable) that there is not more support for RP? Of course.

Which it is remains to be seen.. The difference between us is that I recognize this fact....

 

Nope the difference is you are latching onto anything to put RP down, and blind to see there is support outside of 'likely republicans' blind to know polls don't mean anything.

If you admit there is an 'unknown' you must admit the polls themselves are 'meaningless'

 

Sorry, I guess I neglected to ad the "likely" (maybe), possible, (probable) what if votes in there....

My equation was simple.

Paul Polling numbers minus Huckabee Polling numbers or

RPPD - MHPD

I should have used:

RPPD + X (where as X is an unknown - probably, maybe, likely) - MHPD

The problem is, I nor you know what "X" is... Therefore I have to go with the real data, ie., not the probable, likely, maybe, possible, what if data.

 

Ahh I thought you were speaking of Bush's 'approval' ratings. Huck is at over 30% nationwide? Really now, that's news to me..

You claim you are going with the 'real data' not the 'likely' yet you are doing exactly that, going with the 'likely republican' data. So which one is it?

 

I mean no offense, but this discussion is meaningless at this point... I'm looking at actual support, not probable support.. I'm trying to be as removed and unbiased on the subject as I can...

I've not settled on a candidate yet, therefore I have no reason to put Paul down. I do feel it is necessary to question the hype. No matter how you slice it, if this where football, NFL that is, the person with more points would win.

I'm on the NFL side I guess... If this were College Football, the best team, regardless of records or wins would be decided by a vote. In this case, bias and emotions seem to rule the outcome.

I don't like to make tough decisions like this based on emotions..

I've conceded that Paul may have more support. I've made it known that I think Paul should be in the NH debate.. For some reason you still think I am attacking Paul.

Paul himself is a very emotional person, it's no wonder his supporters would share those emotions. I only hope that they can temper those emotions away from a one-sided mindset and use a little reason once and a while too...

 

Er, well, that is at 33% give or take... I suppose it is "likely" higher though, if we get those "likely" Bush Supporters to participate in the poll...

Sounds kinda silly, doesn't it?

Ok, so what "likely" data is left out of Paul's numbers?

 

I'm actually not being emotional

I do not think RP has HUGE numbers at this point to be honest, I simply logically can easily see he has more support over the 'likely' republican voters as he is bringing many into vote for the first time.

 

LMAO. Is Mia accusing you of being emotional? Has anyone accused him of being irrational today? The proof is plentiful.

Who cares if Huckabee is polling at 30%. If you dig deeper into the polls, less than 50% of Republicans have settled on their choice absolutely.

 

It's all "what if's" and the like at the moment, let us hope Ron Paul, the only honest man in the running can kick these gung-ho warmongering neocon f**ks right up the arse.

I am still amazed after the disaster in Iraq and Afghanistan that we still have idiots supporting these pro "war" fools.