It’s official: The U.S. is in a recession... Seriously?

some of you guys need to go and read what the pros are saying

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/

its broken, fatally wounded and cannot recover, no matter how much imaginary money they print.

 

There's a lot of talk about deflation but I don't see any deflation on the street. The term to use is dis-inflation.

The crash of the financial and stock bubble is not deflation. The money was only 'imaginary'

 

the true effects of what's happening now will take a while to get to the streets

fortunately.

you cant buy your way out of a broken system made on imaginary money, with more of the same. surely any fool can see that?

theyre just trying to prolong the inevitable so:

a) they can stash their little bit (more) away
b) it's not "on their watch"

personally I think i'd be befriending my nearest survivalist nutter with a well stocked hide full of guns, bullets and food.

 

Great plan. So what's stopping you?

 

heh

i dont need to here. you guys though...

 

You live in the one part of the world that is magically immune from the financial crisis?

It's a general slowdown. Throughout history all major economies have corrections. It's unavoidable.

 

no but we live on a party island that could grow enough food to feed itself.

and all our neighbours don't have sh*tloads of guns to come and take it off us when they get hungry.

 

Hehe. When the final meltdown comes, would you rather have gold or lead?

 

Ibiza has a population density of 500 people per sq mile. (221 square miles, Population: 110,000)

The US has no shortage of food and is a leading exporter.

My neighbours shop at Walmart.

 

LOL

Gold would be good long term backing. Lead would be good short term backing and keeping that gold long term..


@bogart..

Yep Walmart's business is booming right now, (sell a lot of rice and caned goods) so are gun sales and of course booze sales.


Boulder

 

Walmart has some deals, however Americans are going to have to get back to basics. The canned goods are really no bargain. Hormel spam sales are running at all time highs but a 12oz can @ $$3.29 isn't really a great bargain.

In countries like India the people go to the market and stock up on dried goods like beans and flour as well as vegetables.

Record amounts of Americans are on the food stamp program but you can't feed on family by buying a $5 box of hamburger helper to stretch out a $2 lb of hamburger.

 

it's been in recession for over a year now, but this happens every 10 years so it's not a big deal

 

It's a bigger deal than you believe. There has been a period of growth for the last 17 years that is ending in the 'mother of all bubbles' not seen since the Great Depression. The situation will not get as bad as the 1930s but at the best we face a severe recession followed by a worse inflationary recession i an event kown as a double dip recession.

In the period between 1973-1982 the US has 3 recession totally 30 months.

November 1973 - March 1975 -- 16 months
January 1980 - July 1980 -- 6 months
July 1981 - November 1982 - 16 months

http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

 

Well I sure hope it doesn't, but why do you say it won't?

 

I doubt it will be like the 1930, worst case prolong resession 2years.

 

What makes you assume two years?

I've read such predictions before and they seem to not have any real life foundation:

Global financial crisis predicted to last another two years

 

for one these days we have more safety net, such as unemployment, banks have insurance,etc in in the Great Depression banks didn't have insurance. so when all the banks fell, People lost all their money. and theses days the government spends money creating new jobs. For example I work for the City in my whole department 2-3 years ago we had around 550 people working, now within the last six months they have hired extra 80 people,and providing new services. this is happening throughout the country. during the Great Depression the government started creating job three years after it started, which was at its height, which some people say it was a little bit too late. But now the government is really stepping in. They will create enough job,until the economic starts getting better.

when people have these jobs they start spending again and will help businesses. Right now nobody spending, every business I have seen (Friends, family,online research) is making 15-25% less than last year.

And once the economic is better even maybe better than before it can start paying back its debt. When economic is good people make more money,that means it will bring more tax to the government which means the government will be able to pay back its debt.

 

There is a probability that the US will fall into a depression. However, a Great Depression with 25% unemployment and 25% decline in GDP isn't likely.

The National Bureau of Economic Research does not separately identify depressions. How would you define of a depression?

There doesn't seem to be any clear plan with the stimilus checks and bailouts. At best the government is eaising the pain. But there doesn't seem to be a plan or solution.

People spending money is not gowing to solve the economic crisis if we don't produce anything.

Commerical real estate will be the next crisis. FHA is making 3% down mortgages and is the new subprime. Which means that the government will need to borrow even more money.

 

Well I'm not an economist. As far as some official definitions go, one thing that is important to note is that there is no one definition:

http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/f/Depression.htm

But this is something I can agree with: A depression is a severe economic downturn that lasts several years...

And this is definitely something I see happening. If you consider 2008 was one year, and then you take the best estimates of 2010 (recovery) then you already have three years. That's already quite bad... Add onto that 10,000,000 + jobs to be lost over the next two years and you have a pretty serious thing going on - which can fall under the term "depression"

I totally agree here and there are still more elements hidden and not yet uncovered - the credit card crisis for one.

Then you have international currency markets. One big change in one country can result in a huge fluctuation of currencies. Take this example, in Spain: Expatriates who rely on income from the UK for example have lost 30% of their income leaving some on a practical poverty level.

And two other important factors to take into account are:

1) TIME
2) DOMINO EFFECT

 

A depression is part of the normal business cyle and usually occurs every 30 years or so. In the period spanning the late 1970s including the 73-75 recession, 80 recession, 81-82 recssion, the US came very close to a depression.

I saw an interview with Don King and he believes that the current financial crisis is similiar to the Panic of 1907



There is still money out there. Unlike what had occured in the 1970s, we have had 17 years of economic expansion. People that sold thier homes at 300% profit or sold stocks when the dow was at 14k have money.

At the moment anyways, the US is doing a lot better than the period of Good Times of JJ Walker