It is true, if you don't violate TOS you will be fine just like if you don't break the law, you don't go to jail
Volunerability is something prevent one from being Adsense dependent. I hope scenario will change. Currently these things like Adsesne, YPN are new...lets hope for a better future. May be some global laws come in to being with both advertiser & Publisher rights.
Incorrect though, every judge, jury, can make a mistake. Many get off crimes they commit and many are later pardoned and compensated for incorrect inprisonment.
I am quite confident that if you have an account in good standing and generate enough revenue to keep you afloat, Google will not automatically jump into conclusions about you cheating but will work with you to figure out what's happening.