Iran Or Isreal? Who Will Be The Victory?

Not publicly telling people. Are you joking. As a matter of fact they publicly disclosed that the iranians do NOT have a weapon program. You are trying desperatly to argue that our inteligent services have either misinformed us or are mistaken or they are inferior to israelis. If not this it must be someting else. I disagree with you on that. I trust them more than israelis in this matter considering israeli track record for wanting to do iran. If israelis had anything that would show iranians are weaponizing, they would have presented it to CIA . And if these info was substantial or documented then the assesment of our inteligence would be diffrent to reflect this information.
I do not have to assume anything. let the israelis convince the CIA not me.
untill then we assume that they have no weapon program no matter how much israel complains.
you can debate me but you can not win because i am correct.

I am naive because i take the word of our inteligence services over israelis that are trying to involve us in a war for years now. looooool
The known facilities that they have are in civilian nature as it was pointed out in the NIE. so you think that israel should attack irans civilian reactor.

 

You do not understand the simple questions I am putting to you, it is useless to continue.

You keep just parroting the same thing. And yes, the CIA does not share everything with you. Regardless, the whole premise of my question was asking you to assume TWO THINGS. (1) That Israel has knowledge of Iran's nuclear weapons program, and (2) That that information was accurate. You ignore both assumptions by saying they are not supported. No shit, they are assumptions.

 

Pizzaman is always going to argue from the point of muslims. There's probably a good reason why. He always has, since he's been on this forum. Sometimes, he gets a little too carried away and it's so obvious, he needs a reminder that he's blowing his cover again. That's usually followed by a comment about "both sides" being "equally bad" then going right back to arguing from the same perspective again.

I'm not sure he actually realizes how obvious his patterns are.

 

You were not assuming anything You were trying to say that the NIE is not fair. and this is not the first time.
Now repeat after me.
iranians have no nuclear weapon program that we know or israelis have told us.
I do not want to be looking under the tables for iranian nuclear weapons like bush was doing for iraqi WMD

 

Was NIE written by muslems.
get a grip

 

I agree that you don't know what you don't know.

That is no way means Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. Thankfully the people who are in charge don't think the way you do but actually prepare for all possibilities.

Did you know about Syria's nuclear weapons program and the location before Israel destroyed it? Of course not. Did that mean it did not exist - nope. It just meant that YOU did not know about it.

You seem to think that because you don't know about it, it can't possibly exist. That is a really silly way to approach this situation.

 

you keep on saying that i should not belive our NIE. It is you that say you know more. i just accept that they are profesionals and know what they are talking about. I defer to their judgment while you want to belive what israelis tell you.
Do they have any proof
why is it that CIA did not belive them?
I will reconsider when the NIE is changed.

 

No, I do not believe you were involved with writing anything for the National Institute on Aging, nor do I believe you were involved with writing the National Intelligence Estimate.

I do believe what I posted, though

You're exposing yourself . Far be it from me to point it out, yet again

 

oh well to each his own. i will fix the spelling. what part of what i write you disagree with?
would you like to talk about substance of what we are talking about?

 

pizzaman, I am sorry my friend, but your thinking is naive. Or maybe you are under cover as Gtech said. I don't know.
What I know? Iran developing nuclear weapons. The west has to act now, NOW OR NEVER.

 

1. I have never said you should not believe the NIE

2. I have never said I know more that the CIA.

3. I have no idea what Israel thinks and certainly do not defer to any other country.

Do not make up lies about what I have said.

You keep talking as though the CIA puts out it most current information on a daily basis and you refuse to admit that they don't tell you everything. The NIE has been very wrong it the past and will be wrong in the future. Whether it is accurate on this issue remains to be seen. Your refusal to even discuss anything other than what is in the NIE displays a close minded approach to this situation. That is your loss.

If I reply to Pizzaman again (after this post) on this thread, I will pay $10 paypal to the first person who PMs about it. I need some incentive not to keep replying to him, it is really like talking to a wall.​

 

You guys should meet for a drink

 

This NIE represent the collective understanding of our services.
now the question is why did they publish it if it is not true? so they must think it is true.
the other question is does israel know something that US don't and if so why they are not telling us. Would this info change our assesment of the situation.
If and when there is new info and CIA changes their position then we will make descisions based on that. but as of now their opinion is very clear.
edit: To look at the situation inteligently requires to make correct assumptions. i have already explained what is wrong with any military action when we do not know the location of their weapon program.
This will result in a big problem specially if they have a program. they will just accelerate their development.

i can go for a black russian. maybe in your bar

 

Yes, absolutely. I already know the other stuff, was just pointing it out. I like to know the background of those in a debate, so I know where there perspective is coming from.

So, let's move forward.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/755cqpzu.asp

And of course, the notion that Iran doesn't have a nuke weapons program is blasted in this one. To the point, that Iran "accidentally" turned over blueprints of a nuclear warhead design to the IAEA. Doh! "Hey, can we get those back?"

 

OK gtech lets see if i can make my point to you.
lets say they have a hidden weapon facility that we do not know where it is.
now lets say either we or the israelis attack them and miss this facility because we do not know where it is.
it is going to be fairly obvious that they will accelerate the program and make a weapon as soon as they can. will they use it then?
what did israel or us will achive from this plan?
now lets assume that they do not have one. would they start one right after the attack?bet you they do. will they use it? probably.
they are working on an enrichment program yes
do they have the know how to make nukes. yes they have the khan plans.
are they working on a weapon program. That is the question.
what is the best course of action?

 

I think you guys are all missing the real point. For those of you who don't know the history of the CIA, here's a little lesson.

The CIA was originally created to protect FOREIGN FINANCIAL INTEREST overseas. Spying was only to serve that purpose. In the beginning 1900's, America did one smart thing. They made contracts with the middle eastern governments/monarchy's to ensure that all oil was based according to the US dollar.

The more confidence in the dollar made America a super power. Imagine having a public stock company and everybody invests in your stock. The King of Saudi and other totalitarian Arab states agreed because their own currency is highly dependent on their ability to continue control of their countries. At the time, most of those countries we're very unstable thus they they didn't mind keeping their riches in dollars and foreign accounts. God only know's their own local currency sucks!

When America screamed "Sanctions" which would immediately limit Iranians from dealing financially worldwide, the Iranians said "No Problem - We'll trade our oil against the Pound and not the dollar". This totally fucked America as the world lost confidence in the failing dollar. Fact is, when dollars are printed that have "value" - meaning that they are being printed against real investment using the dollar - then America is strong. Printing dollars that have zero investment behind them is depreciation. Oil is a trillion dollar business.
The Iranians and Venezuelans (another huge exporter of oil) and other Latin American country's have basically dumped the American dollar. Today, the dollar is worth SH*T as a result. Meanwhile Bush is trying to kick the American "oil" habit by initiated energy savings initiatives to prevent fossil fuels which means less oil burning and processing.

The global energy crisis is a campaign that coincides with convincing not only the consumer but also big industry to get off the oil addiction. Plastic, Gas and other oil products can be created using alternative methods that don't require oil. Cars can run electrically or via solar without oil. I imagine within the next 10 years, technology will really kick in and "battery stations" to recharge your car will replace "gas stations". Test pilots are already happening now in Europe. Oil is supporting terror and everybody knows it.
I think that America has been wanting to take out Iran for a long time, only other things we're more pressing. The fact that Bush signed off on energy bills that reduce fossil fuels (less oil!) which sort of proves that America understands that oil habit is a deadly one. Gas prices will be 10cents a barrel if everybody starts using electric cars that operate exactly like gas cars. Face it, price is relative to demand.

But here's where the cross roads leads. Oil income is just a means. America's sanction war has only hurt America.
There are people who are willing to DIE for what they believe in. Make no mistake, there is nothing more sick than somebody who is willing to die for what they believe in. In Israel, we calle them Martyrs. You can find them in Palestine and Iraq for a dime a dozen. People who are convinced that God is a pimp and heaven is a big orgy with 72 virgins. I mean if it weren't a serious threat to me, you and everybody else on this world - it probably would be comical.

The Jewish faith and people have taught me to LIVE FOR WHAT I BELIEVE IN.

People who are willing to commit suicide in war is not new. The Japanese Kamakazi pilots all knew that they didnt have enough gas to fly back to Japan. Nobody every thought they could reach Hawaii's Pearl Harbor. Nobody thought that Japan's emperor would send planes - and nobody thought that 9/11 would occur. But guess what? Truman sent 2 atom bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the war ended the next day. Entire families totally erased off the face of the earth. Til this day the Japanese elderly tell their grandchild about "Hot Winds" and "Black Rain" falling from the sky.

The Iranian people are not bad, rather they are victims. It's the political establishment that America has been investing in hoping that would bring change. Time has run out. Years have gone by and the student uprisings are not enough to make change. Rafsanjani (previous Iranian president) was America's last hope and even he was limited.

America needs to either give Israel the monetary/logistic/political backing to confront Iran and/or simply do it herself. Iran is a dangerous regime. The Iranian president is determined to make Iran a super power. Nuclear energy for military means is just one of many objectives.

I have a feeling that Bush will attack and that will create the necessary vacuum to ensure that Mc Cain is voted into office. It's a military mission that Obama simply cannot fulfill, specifically not by negotiation or talk. So if Iran is attacked, America will vote Mc Cain in.

As America/Israel attacks, all hell will break loose. Make no mistake. It makes no difference if Israeli planes or American planes instigate the attack. Israel has a very capable military and our people (I am Israeli) are very united. Iranians have very advanced weapons - specifically advanced missles that can cover the entire middle east and in fact most of Europe. America has been trying to get Poland to allow them to install a special weapons defense system - yet Russia (who sides with Iran for political reasons) is threatening military action against NATO if America installs the anti missle weapon system. You can bet the system is already parked in several of America's tactical locations.

Tactically, America has logistical superiority simply because they are already parked in Iraq, the Sea, and have additional support from Turkey, Saudi, Afghanistan, etc. Iran is basically surrounded with joint forces from all over the world. But make no mistake, Iran is bold. They f'n kidnapped a boat carrying English navy patrol soldiers in territorial water which means that they have no fear. Only top orders from top brass could give such an order.

There are 4.8 million Jews in Israel surrounded by hundreds of millions of aggressive neighbors. I'm not going to waste your time discussing politics or religion.

Yet one small note:

Most people use the bible as a history book. Anybody who wastes there time saying its "Arab" land based on what was or was not 100 or 200 years ago can use the same history book to show that the Jews had been on the land long before the name Palestine ever even existed - yet because of war and attrition the Jews and other inhabitants over the years we're extradited. Mohammed is actually relatively new (only 1,400 years old) hence he came 500 years after Christ. So Arabs claiming ownership to the land is only relative if they won or lost a war to gain it. For the past 60 years its called Israel. Claiming we dont have right is the same as claiming America doesnt have right to the land (yet less than 400 years ago they slaughtered millions of native Indians to get it).

The fact that Israel does exist as a country, a recognized member of the UN, is something that is no longer ignored by most Arab countries. The Iranians understand that the history lesson to claim land doesnt work so well - specifically because the Iranian regime overtook the country themselves by overtaking the Iranian Shah and importing a religious figure (who had been previously deported). So importing/deporting is nothing new to most of the countries in the area.

Today, the Iranians use a different angle. They claim that there was no holocaust, rather that was a "lie of the Jews" in effort to create the state of Israel. So instead of using religious books like the bible or Koran, they use denying the holocaust as an excuse to explain Jewish presence on the land - as if we arrived by false pretense.

It's sad that the average Iranian has never seen a tatoo'd number on the hands of old Jewish men and women to understand the nature of the holocaust.

The reason I've taken the time to explain this is simply because if America/Israel does strike, you may find that they are no longer "Iranians" per say. If there is a war, they will be blown back into Fred & Wilma Flinstone stoneage. There wont be any active government, health care, medical supplies, etc., etc., because foot support and joint forces supplies comes long after the fierce air attacks. Iranian politicians talk big, but they saw how fast Iraq was successfully invaded. It took less than 2 weeks to take full control of the entire country. Remember, air superiority is what wins wars. If this happens, I doubt that America will just bomb and leave. They will make damn sure that problem is solved by forcing the Iranians to receive any government that is favorable to the US. That is how it works. Big man eats little man.

The land will be divided just as Iraq will most likely be divided - because Iranians will fight between themselves. Iranians are not Arabs - nor do they speak Arabic. Most likely the neighboring countrys who are Sunni's will attack their Islamic Shia's brothers - just as is happening in Iraq and every other war ridden country.

The only solution in Iraq is to divide it into 3 different countries to let the ethnic divisions exist side by side instead of together. Consider the people as not just 3 different tribes, but seriously 3 different governments with different land. Unity Gov's in the middle east don't work. Only seperation government works with financial and commercial contracts between governments and people to ensure stability. Lebanon is yet another example of how unity gov's dont work. The only arab countries that exist in the middle east are those who are totalitarian with absolute powers to the top brass or monarchy.

In conclusion, I think the only way that the world can rid itself of terrorism is by eliminating official regimes who are against "Live and Let Live". Osama Ben Lauden actually believe that he will rise to government because the Koran apocalyptically teaches them that Mohammed's law will eventually reign. The Hezbollah leader who is very politically powerful in Lebanon believes the same. By blowing up official governments (or assisinating their so-called "elected" officials) who threaten the world, we send a clear message reminding the terrorists that they have no place in the world arena. Remember, the agenda of Islam isnt about specific land, its about penetrating your values and the way you think and live. Arafat's long stand off finally evolved into him becoming the President of Palestine. Osama believes he also has a chance at translating his military victories into political victories. He fought the Russians and helped the Taliban become in control of Afghanistan. He used military for his own religious and political gain. It ended when American actively started running after him - but make no mistake, he spends every day of his miserable life trying to figure out how to make Al Kaida overtake some national government or country so that he can put his own people, who share his values - so that he can enforce his political policies. We need to kill that dream by blowing up established countries, governments, etc., like Iran who share that dream. By blowing up Iran, Osama will learn real fast that the world is not going to accept his kind at the negotiating table - hence there is nothing to negotiate.

 

I read your post SharePro and I recommend others read it as well.

But its time to go get some beer and order a pizza
20 minutes left till the Olympic, yey!

 

Share Pro, I read your post and all I can see is a pro-israeli perspective to the larger problem. Might was never right and never will be. We are not in the Crusades now and any war will only fuel more bloodshed and more tensions.

Just because US and Israel has more firepower does not mean they can play Rambo and win a war. Look at Iraq or at Afghanisthan. What Israel needs is a pragmatic leader who can shy away from the US and consider building bridges with its neigbors including Iran. Yes, this would involve admitting to the Palestine Problem which by all means is also a genuine need.

A jingoistic neo con attitude will not take us anywhere.

Peace on earth. Live and let live.

 

@ Outposter - You failed to show how I am pro Israeli.

I think that I clearly outlined how Iran has manipulated the UN "sanctions" to screw America's dollar. I provided a full history lesson to see exactly where the problem was and where the solution lies.

I think it is very clear that the current Iranian regime is dangerous to the world. It represents a fungus that has to be dealt with. We are at the cross roads of either dealing with the problem directly or waiting for Iran to arm a nuclear missle. Israel (as a country and not religion) will not accept an Iranian nuclear missle because we know that they would use it.

It is said that Israel has had nuclear weapons for over 4 decades, yet even when Israel has suffered great loss, nobody ever flipped any switches.

Personally, I am anti-zionist. That doesnt mean Im anti-Jew, rather it just means that I am anti Government (of Israel). Zionism refers to a specific political and social structure that I think has failed. Fact is, Israel is in and out of elections every 2 years simply because the system doesnt work.

But I do believe that the Jewish people have a right to this land backed by thousands of more years history than the 1,500 year old Muslim religion. That's not my religion speaking - that's simple history.

The only reason I pointed out me being Israel is for 2 reasons:

1) To show that if we use the "Bible" or "Koran" as a history book (as opposed to a religious book) we note that the Jews have had longer standing and rights on the land. I also noted that because of war, Jews and others we're sold as slaves to other people.

The Jews record our own excavations by the 9th of Av which is this Sunday. It's a holiday when all Jews worldwide fast all day (no eating or drinking) to remind us of a day when we we're excavated from the land.

2) Arab's believe in dying for what they believe in. All over the world, you see suicide bombings happening in the name of Islam. You don't see Jewish people blowing up German citizens or begging the German's to give us back the land, businesses, and other property that was stolen from us. Sure, the German government has paid dearly in cash, and continues to pay, yet Jew's we're never allowed to return.

What Im getting at is that while war is a vicious act of aggression, it's also a means of survival. But war should not be called upon unless governments have a clear political agenda for the day after. Had America divided Iraq into 3 countries instead of try to build one unity government behind Malaki, you can bet your ass there would have been less resistance against the Americans.

Iran will be divided. I imagine the Pentagon and other Civil Engeering Experts have been working 24/7 to figure out how to re-build the country after the bombings. Its a trillion dollar business that creates lots of jobs. Most Iraqis and Iranians only give a shit about going to work, paying their bills and taking care of their children. They are no different than you or me.

So if the power is divided properly the day after ethnically, you will see that the Iranians may be far more willing to see American or European presence on their land. Obviously there is a major cultural difference, but these are things that can be overcome - specifically noting how America has successfully integrated in Saudi Arabia.

One last thing. The "Palestinians" are not an Israeli or Jewish problem. Sure, its a world problem, but by no means a specific problem that Israel created. I mean lets look at history.

Did you know that the local arab inhabitants who lived in Palestine never had their own government? There was no president or king of Palestine. Since the name "Palestine" existed, it never had its own government. Rather the land was "occupied" and controlled by invading armys.

Before Israel, the land was occupied by the English for about 120 years. Before the English, the land was occupied by the Turkish Ottoman Empire for over 400 years. Before that, Egypt occupied the land.

Never did the Palestinian people have their own established government. The Jew's fought the British and claimed a state. Then we fought all of the Arabs.

The West Bank and Gaza is something that we won in a war. The West Bank citizens before 1967 we're all Jordanians. The land belonged to Jordan. Jerusalem belonged to Jordan.

The Gaza territory all belonged to Eqypt. The "Palestinians" we're Egyptian citizens. When we made peace with Egypt, we tried to give back Gaza. The Egyptians REFUSED to take it back.

When we made peace with Jordan, the Jordanians NEVER ASKED FOR JERUSALEM back. They didnt want Ramallah and the "West Bank". In fact, they disowned the "West Bank" arab citzens by simply refusing them passports and social care.

So dont waste your time saying that the Palestinians are a Jewish problem. They are not. We didnt create the problem.

Today, the Palestinians voted in the HAMAS in democratic elections. This is a group of murders who are responsible for thousands of citizens deaths. The Israeli establishment refuses to talk to such people. There is nothing to negotiate. Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist.

If they recognized our right to exist, perhaps we could potentially discuss geographical borders. Today, we simply lock them out hoping that their own people will realize that Hamas will get them nowhere.

My original conclusion above is that we need to eliminate established bodies and/or governments that threaten the world. Iran is an example, yet Hamas is also on the list. It's hard living next to a regime that kidnaps 1 person in exchange for 1000 mass murderers.

We dont want anything to do with them. But again, we didn't create the "Palestinian Refugee Problem". They we're refugee's for hundreds of years before the official established state of Israel - only under Arab rule.

The people must choose their own fate. Had America taken out other official governments in time, perhaps places like Sudan, and the former Check republic genecides would not have happened.

The Palestinians need to understand that HAMAS is something that Israel is fed up with. Imagine the President of Mexico sending Skud missles day after day on the residential neighborhoods of San Diego.

I hope that Israel will just assisinate their political and military top brass. I dont feel like spending a month in Gaza doing military reserve duty. But I wont hesitate if Im called because Im sick and tired of the terror.

 

i do not like kosher pizza I can not have my favorite pepperoni and the cheese is really bad. i feel bad for you. I was thinking not eating pepperoni pizza might be the cause of bad attitude. i think arabs have the same problem.
@SharePro i do not think your plan is working.

and
it looks like turkey is not up to your plan either.
bad plan but genocide usually is