At this point I'm thinking the next "ledges" will be at 7200->6000->5500. Definitely nothing lower than 4300! Maybe. If I were a betting man, I'd wait out the drops and put my money in whole-hog at 5500. Whats your prediction for a bottom? The Winner will be whoever gets closest and they will get uhhh... a bad economy.
Financials and car companies are already back to 1991 prices or worse. GM is at its lowest price since 1950.
I don't think there is much downward room for the Down. Maybe another one or two more days of violent fluctuations, I would expect to see a technical rebound from the oversold positions and then a slow decay rather than the violent swings which characterized the stock market in recent months. I mean investors cant be really more pessimistic than at current.....
I pulled out of stocks over the last two years preparing for this. I did take a $65,000 dollar loss on my 401k, I think everything will rebound when gas prices fall. I am not worried at all.
From what I know crude oil was down not because they are sympathetic to the Americans but that crude oil market predicted a slow down and hence less demand. The drop is mostly in anticipation of a recession in USA and slowdown in the rest of the world. Rebound may not happen anywhere too soon as the economy goes into recession mode. The dramatic drop in crude oil prices is welcomed but it is only one of the factors which I doubt is sufficient to pull USA out of a recession.
I sometimes wish that people were more hopeful and optimistic and look for solutions. All some do is scream and whine and run for cover shouting slogans of doom. Talk about self fulfilling prophecies.
Guess the Bottom, Win a Depression! 2010 before the end of 2010. I hope I'm wrong, a depression doesn't sound like much fun.
I predict we will soon make a near term bottom and trend up slowly for 2-3 months and then drop to lower levels than now. Sweet.
After the crash, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered early in 1930, only to reverse again, reaching a low point of the great bear market in 1932. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929 Micro Economics 101. The solution is to prepare yourself for a recession. The lower price of crude what do much unless it goes below $70. A lot of price increases haven't been passed along at the retail level and even $100 oil was not fully priced in. In any case the small drop in oil is far outweighed by the losses in mutual funds and money market funds that people were using as savings for down payments for houses etc