Good News: Dollar is going up

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008.

  1. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #21
    I have a feeling the dollar will appreciate. But there is still a lot of price increase that have not been passed along. Even if the price of oil stays below $100 there's still going to be some inflation for at least the next 12-18 months. Inflation in Mexico is running 5.6% and China the rate is 8-10%.
     
    bogart, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  2. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #22
    N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  3. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #23
    Azerbaijan announced it had halted oil exports via the Georgian ports of Batumi and Kulevi.

    Batumi was attacked over the weekend by the Russians and the oil facilities had been bombed.

    Should Russia take Georgia, they will have a stranglehold on the Caucasus oil fields.
     
    bogart, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  4. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #24
    Russia wont take Georgia, Russia will destroy all the military bases in Georgia for good. Basically, thats what they were doing. Poti port, Gori base and all other bases, that were given by Soviet Union by the way :(
     
    N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  5. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #25
    The US in any case is not going to attack Russia.

    Russia could embargo oil and that would send prices to $200.
     
    bogart, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  6. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #26
    Hmm...I think if there will be a war between the two, we all wont be thinking of oil and any other material things at that time :rolleyes:
     
    N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  7. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #27
    If there is going to be a war, it will be economic.

    Russia needs the oil revenue and the west needs the oil.

    The question is how both sides save face.
     
    bogart, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  8. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #28
    Well, our biggest partners is Germany/Italy and they are "fine" with this conflict. And then through them the gas for example goes to other european countries.

    We dont deal with US. Saudi Arabia deals with you.
     
    N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  9. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #29
    A loss of 5 million barrels+ on the international market will be felt worldwide.

    Already the 1 million barrels a day from the Georgian pipeline has been halted.

    In the short term the crisis is helping the dollar.
     
    bogart, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  10. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #30
    whats the reason? If BP reported that pipelines are fine.
     
    N_F_S, Aug 11, 2008 IP
  11. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #31
    The pipeline has been shutdown since last week due to a bombing by the PPK in eastern Turkey.
     
    bogart, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  12. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #32
    Aha, so say Turkish pipeline, no need to say georgian and blame Russia for bombings that did not take place.:)
     
    N_F_S, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  13. biko

    biko Active Member

    Messages:
    107
    Likes Received:
    1
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    53
    #33
    Hope dollar will keep rising.. till his old rates.
     
    biko, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  14. smatts9

    smatts9 Active Member

    Messages:
    1,089
    Likes Received:
    71
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    88
    #34
    We are going to get hit by deflation, I don't understand this inflation talk. Everything will be getting cheaper, including equities.

    It would be worse for bankers if the gov't tried to inflate it's way out rather than just let it deflate.
     
    smatts9, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  15. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #35
    In a sense ... there's trillions of dollars of CDO's and other instruments that the investment banks used to create money out of thin air.

    But with a Fed rate of 2%, $750 billion trade deficit, $350 billion US defecit and hundreds of billions of bailouts including stimilus checks and housing bailouts, there isn't too much danger of deflation.

    The US is not Japan. People don't save.
     
    bogart, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  16. outspan

    outspan Active Member

    Messages:
    420
    Likes Received:
    5
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    58
    #36
    Will it continue to rise you ask? Well if I'm a forex investor, if I knew I'd be rich(er)! :D

    There are so many factors to keep into consideration -- the Georgian conflict and US performance in the Beijing games are just a few. If you ask me, I believe the election of a new president will contribute significantly to its rise in the long term.
     
    outspan, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  17. N_F_S

    N_F_S Active Member

    Messages:
    2,475
    Likes Received:
    56
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    90
    #37
    Well, as soon as Russian president said the operation in south ossetia is finished the dollar dropped by 30% to ruble from the amount it gained in the last days...
     
    N_F_S, Aug 12, 2008 IP
  18. jonas18

    jonas18 Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    8
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    110
    #38
    those good you talking about its made by cheap US, UK manufacture try to save money by manufactured and label they products to china for cheap labor, I believed now paying the price. 6 months down the road chicnesses people would make a copy sell it for less what the original cost.
     
    jonas18, Aug 14, 2008 IP
  19. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

    Messages:
    9,066
    Likes Received:
    262
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    200
    #39
    "Hit by deflation" in a true market economy would be a good thing. Savings would appreciate, purchasing power would grow and more people would enjoy a higher standard of living.

    But what you are talking about, is when the division of labor collapses, and people cannot afford to eat out, or to hire carpet cleaners, instead cooking macaroni and cheese at home, and renting a carpet cleaner. As demand falls, supply has to be liquidated, which is what is going to happen.

    By diminishing the division of labor, many people are going to see a lowered standard of living that will contribute to the deflation.

    As unemployment rises, the FED will have to consider rate cuts. They only have one tool to use, and that's rates.
     
    guerilla, Aug 14, 2008 IP
  20. bogart

    bogart Notable Member

    Messages:
    10,911
    Likes Received:
    509
    Best Answers:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    235
    #40
    The Fed doesn't have much room. Inflation is 5.6% and the Fed rate is 2%
     
    bogart, Aug 14, 2008 IP