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G has filed for IPO so it's now commercial

Discussion in 'Google' started by expat, Apr 29, 2004.

  1. #1
    Now G has finally decided to go for it. Great speculation over.
    G filed for IPO and it's gona make a mint for a lot of people and I actually agree to this.
    But once floted they are just a typical US company with a fixation on quarterly results that may well lead to a loss in long term view.

    What would worry me is that 200 mio queries daily have been quoted for a long time - this may hint an end to accelerated growth.

    Nevertheless once floated one can take a closer look.
    M
     
    expat, Apr 29, 2004 IP
  2. GuyFromChicago

    GuyFromChicago Permanent Peon

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    #2
    I think it will be a good thing, just like the competition MSN will surely bring when they release their SE. Competition, and the ultimate goal of profitability, drive change and innovation.

    One thing it will force Google to do is expedite product development, which could be good or bad depending on how you look at it. It will be good in the sense that we will likely see products/services added on a more frequent basis, but bad in the fact that it may force Google to rush to put things out that are not up to the standards we have become accustomed to.
     
    GuyFromChicago, Apr 29, 2004 IP
  3. hulkster

    hulkster Peon

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    #3
    I just read through their filings - the intro letter from the execs/founders is just GREAT - man, these guys are sharp, and if they can do half of what they plan/hope to do (even after going public), they are going great guns.

    Having read a few of these types of things, there matter-of-fact plain speaking approach was a breath of fresh air.

    alek
     
    hulkster, Apr 29, 2004 IP
  4. T0PS3O

    T0PS3O Feel Good PLC

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    #4
    In their filing though they mention:

    And with Page and Brin still relatively firmly in charge, I can't see them being 'just like any typical US company'.

    I wonder if they have any BIG plans with the raised capital.
     
    T0PS3O, Apr 30, 2004 IP
  5. expat

    expat Stranger from a far land

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    #5
    Filing papers are pure marketing - they need to have the shares gobbled up at the highest possible price. For the next 6 month it's pure PR.
    Having been in fairly high powered positions in large floated companies and one company just floating what happens is:
    A target price for shares is set but adjusted to market just before the float, not to forget quite some companies have delayed or bowed out just before d-day.
    The managing banks get a huge bite of the money raised and some of the best PR cannons are put in place to squeeze out every last cent.
    The subtle change come after the float. Suddenly there a "suits", accountants, lawyers, PR, useful and useless managers,large investors and public scrutiny.
    Before it was "got an idea - sounds great - couple of people - get what's needed - lets go for it"
    After "got and idea - find budget - fight for budget - calculate ROI - calculate risk - get lawyer - get a couple of strategic meetings - third party involved -need at least three competitive offers - and so on - it just slows it down.
    Also all floated companies suffer from politics and back stabbing and the usual minimum they loss in efficiency is about 25% - I've been there and I know that PHD's are good at it as well when forced.
    All said it's not a bad thing for G, but certainly my perception will change as it's no longer "for the greater good" it is commercial, so it is money driven and if one has shares one certainly doesn't want to loose one wants to see a healthy profit.
    Again it is great for the founders and members and all the venture capitals who put money and a lot of work into it. Now there will be a pay-day and than it's simply a new G.
    Whatever they say, things will change and no commercial driven company will sit on a white empty real estate that is looked at at least 100 mio times a day by all the people who have selected G as their home page.​
    There will be a lot of impressive figures and stories and ambitions, carefully worded to what investors want to hear.​
    The trick with all IPO's is to look around and evaluate the field the potentials the pifalls and the competition - not the floating company.​
    M
    PS It is very noticeable that GG on other forums has increased activity - pushing PR between the lines - much more than before.
     
    expat, Apr 30, 2004 IP
  6. hexed

    hexed Peon

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    #6
    Google has filed IPO - $2.7 Billion if i remember correctly.

    Get ready for the downfall of Google sooner or later. As we all know, when things become commercial, they become driven by the wants and needs of the stockholders, and not that of the general public. Companies begin to dictate what people want rather than listen to their needs.

    Just my thoughts from my experience with today's american corporations.

    Hexed.
     
    hexed, May 3, 2004 IP
  7. digitalpoint

    digitalpoint Overlord of no one Staff

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    #7
    I think Google will be different. They are issuing multi-class stock. Which means people buying stock basically have no votes (at least not enough voting power to be considered important). That was done intentionally so that Google can operate without share holders trying to decide what's best for Google. So essentially if you buy Google stock, you are there for the ride, not control.

    In my opinion it makes Google stock more desirable (at least for me). Google knows how to run their own company better than investors. So buying Google stock means you are investing in Google as they do business now, not how some institutional investor thinks they can maximize short-term gains so they can flip the stock.

    - Shawn
     
    digitalpoint, May 3, 2004 IP
  8. expat

    expat Stranger from a far land

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    #8
    Sure G will try and may well belive it can sustain to be different.

    BUT investors won't.

    Nothing against small investors, but they are the most volotile investmentbase one can have.

    Let's say I'm an investor low to medium risk, part of my pension. I have 100.000 riding. Inflation is 3%, the investment needs to make 8% net to be of interest thus I look at about 13-15% with tax implications. Two quarters in a row underperforming and hey I'm outa there. Doesn't matter if the company made 30% last year as I've spend it.

    That's the pressure that comes back to any floated company - statements like "will not massage quarterly results" / "not build reserves", etc, sorry but it's just kid's having a laugh.
    It's simply my money - no performance - not with my money.

    It's different if one looks at it longterm, stockmarket never lost over 20 years, but neither did gold etc.

    But do we want to live forever....
    M
     
    expat, May 3, 2004 IP
  9. hamaki

    hamaki Peon

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    #9
    from a user's point of view, i really don't care whether G is a privatly held or a listed company. as long as G is going to provide the best search results. if not some other company will come along.

    from an investor's point of view, I still remember my Netscape play. :(
     
    hamaki, May 4, 2004 IP
  10. digitalpoint

    digitalpoint Overlord of no one Staff

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    #10
    Well one difference between Google and Netscape, is Google is wildly profitable to start with. :)

    - Shawn
     
    digitalpoint, May 4, 2004 IP
  11. hamaki

    hamaki Peon

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    #11
    very right about G's profitability... but the stockmarket is a strange beast. what is known about a company does not matter.

    in any case, buy low, sell high. :D
     
    hamaki, May 4, 2004 IP
  12. GuyFromChicago

    GuyFromChicago Permanent Peon

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    #12
    I really think that Google will get better and better – just like they do now. I think the big difference will be their presence. I think they will use a portion of the money they receive for more traditional advertising like television, etc. Eventually, they have to compete with Yahoo & MSN in those medians if they want to increase their share of the market and continue to grow. You know MSN won’t come out quiet with their new search engine.

    I think this was a good move by Google at the right time.
     
    GuyFromChicago, May 4, 2004 IP
  13. GuyFromChicago

    GuyFromChicago Permanent Peon

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    #13
    To add to this, I was at the National Catalog show in Chicago yesterday. While it's still called a catalog show, a lot of emphasis is placed on the data management aspect of catalogs & mailing.

    I was surprised to see two companies with booths - Google & Yahoo. Yahoo not soo much, they have used tradiotnla media to build their brand for quite some time. Google was the bigger surprise of the two.
     
    GuyFromChicago, May 6, 2004 IP