I think you are on to something, but the analysis is a little different than what you suggest. NNN.com are worth more than LLL.com because they are much more scarce (1,000 v. 17,576), same for NNNN.com v. LLLL.com (10,000 v. 456976). I don't think NNNNN.com prices will be tied to LLLLL.com prices because there are way too many LLLLL.com's (11,881,376) and these will probably not be bought out for a long time. In contrast, there are only 100,000 total NNNNN.com, and half of these are already developed websites. So, I think NNNNN.com's will take their prices by reference to NNNN.com's, not the LLLLL.com's. Currently, NNNN.com prices are about $400 for random, non-premium numbers, and this represents about 10% of the value of NNN.com's. So if the NNNNN.com's follow suit a random non-premium NNNNN.com should have a floor of about $40. But, there are reasons to expect the floor will be much higher. First, the buyout of the NNNNN.com's will probably exert upward pressure on the prices of NNN.com's and the NNNN.com's. Second, the recent sale of 173.com for $300k+ and increased interest in numeric domains from Asia in general will lead to an increase in prices for numeric domains. Finally, "non-premium" NNNNN.com's may be few and far between. Most seemingly random NNNNN.com's actually represent either US zip codes or foreign postal codes, and US zip codes even before the buyout went for $100-$2,500, and these numbers represent many other things like lucky chinese numbers, part numbers, words on cell phones, etc. So, the $40 base prediction for a random non-premium NNNNN.com I think is a very conservative estimate.
We'll have to see, already on Snapnames mediocre numbers are being bid up to $20+. These are just very scarce and those that bought a lot are holding for the long-term so they are hard to find in the reseller market for the most part. I don't think I would sell my good numbers for under $100, and probably a lot more than that for the best numbers. But I expect that in a few months they will be even harder to get as prices for non-premiums will rise as well, similar to what happened in the months following the LLLL.com buyout (and there are 4.5x the number of LLLL.com's as NNNNN.com's so the numbers are even more scarce).
The one's i've bid on at snapnames ended at the $35-$45 range. They were better one's though. But the prices are starting to take off now it seems. Like things seems to be kinda rolling. But I think it will still be a while before it goes off at full blast. It's still a good time to get them now I think as the buzz is not everywhere yet so the prices are still quite low for them. But it's hard to find them right now, cause lots of the owners are just holding on to them.
Very much agree. I've received offers on NNNNN.com's in my portfolio recently, but I'm holding because I think they are still undervalued in the market and that most people haven't realized their value (many people haven't even realized they are all bought out).
Apparently, Chinese registrars are already backordering NNNNN.com's and they are being resold for mid $2x.
I think it will be a little longer before the NNNNN.com be worth something large. Maybe after this little domain recession ends. Too much been going on lately, like .asia and all these other attempts of buyouts. Great time to buy domains though, if you got the money that is.
Forums like dp??? Or depends what you want. Or maybe just list them on like tdnam or moniker. Set price high and sit there wait for end users.
Agreed. Be sure to check out the nnnnndomains.com blog for updates about NNNNN.com domains and the numerics market in general.