As as everyone probably already knows the famed technology pundit Dvorak wrote a blurb about how web 2.0 is a bubble due to pop one day. My analysis: Dvorak is completely wrong here as he is wrong about most things. He is an old toad who has almost never made any correct predictions and cant form a single coherent piece of analysis and is probably exhibiting symptoms of early-onset Alzheimer’s. For one, web 2.0 isn’t a bubble because in order for it to be a bubble it would have to draw in much more capital. The original web 2.0 bubble drew in BILLIONS of dollars from millions of investors. This included retail investor with etrade accounts to VC firms. This isn’t the case with web 2.0. Read the rest here: iamned.com/blog/2007/08/06/dvorak-wrong-again-no-surprise/ To read my entire blog visit: Iamned.COM Can't use signatures of live links so promoting my blog is difficult
There are times when I think Dvorak must be a fictional character -- just an idiot who always makes inaccurate predictions. Of course he's wrong here, and he shows a lack of understanding of web 2.0. The thing about web 2.0 that makes it so much more successful than the internet bubble of the late '90's is that the web users are creating it. In the late '90's, it was fashionable for everyone to start up a website, get venture capitalists to pour money into it, and then sit back and see if any visitors were interested. Many times nobody was interested, and those sites failed. With web 2.0, people start up websites with close to zero content, and users come and make their own content, which is then shared with everyone else. Some sites will never get off the ground, but the ones that succeed do so because users have shown an interest in using their site, not because a VC thought it was a pretty site that could make a lot of money. Web 2.0 business models are based on revenue, while web 1.0 business models were based on hits and pageviews. In other words, today's successful web 2.0 sites are already making a lot of money from revenue generated by their users. We know that many successful web 2.0 sites like Facebook, Myspace, and Digg are bringing in millions of dollars in real profit, not just revenue. Unless the general public shows a sudden lack of interest in the internet, I don't see web 2.0 bursting any time soon.
Sure, he is not always right but he does have some good speakers on his shows cranky geeks. I.E - Matt from Wordpress and others. As regarding the web 2.0 bubble bursting, who can really predict these things anyway, they just happen!