Hard to say but things look very promising. Crowd funding seems to do very well for people who are creating something physical.
Yes , physical products do very well. Internet related products don't do well. App.net was one of the few that really did well.
I think it will, people are starting to see the value of the items that are being sold especially on Kickstarter.com, hopefully it will continue to be the easiest way to lessen the risk
Crowdfunding will only work in stage 1, as a person who has invested 100 USD into a 100,000 USD project (1/1000 %), how are you entitled to a share of the company if the director/board decides to issue new shares? Is he going to email everyone on the list? What if you don't receive that memo? Sort of screwed, right? CF can never replace VC, since VCs never invest in a company with 100 USD, but on the above example would go balls in on a 51,000 USD investment...At least.