do I have a good idea?

So I've been perusing these forums for a while, and I'm at the point where I realize I need a content-rich, niche-based, visitor engaging website.

I have an idea, something I am knowledgeable about, and it's a topic that not that many people know about.

I do a search in Google, and there are 100,000 to 500,000 results for the topic, depending how specific I get. Most of the websites suck. I'm thinking of making it revenue shared for contributors.

Should I pursue it? My conundrum is this:
1. If there are too many websites already, it may be hard to become #1
2. If there aren't many sites, that may mean there's no demand, therefore a flop...

 

100,000 to 500,000 would not be much competition depending on how strong the top coule of sites were so certainly achievable for dominating in.

Do you get much adsense ads on the right when using combinations of your keywords in google? If so as long as the demand is there for ads you may have tapped into a good niche that is not too competitive so crack on!

 

there's a decent number of ads
the 1st results page is full, (including an eBay ad)
the 2nd half full

all the sites dealing with the topic are very partial in content

 

Well if the top sites are not authority sites then it should be a good test in your own ability to go after that niche and dominate it with a 1+2.

 

The 100,000 to 500,000 results for the topic is only one factor. Another factor, which I believe is more important, is how many people search for the keywords you are targeting. Try http://inventory.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion
it will give you an idea of the no. of searches.

If the keywords are in demand, certainly worth proceeding.

Good luck.

 

12000 searches in february for primary term
10000 for a closely related search
1200 for the next two related

is that decent volume?

 

In my opinion, it certainly is.

 

there is a forum dedicated to my topic, with 4755 members
currently 9 online, 99 visitors

maybe that gives me some indication of the traffic level I could expect?

 

20 K searches for a topic is decent indeed, and no the traffic a forum gets is not representative for the content site you build.

I'd say run with it, research which keywords have a good high demand/ low competition ratio and start building your content around those. Keep building till you run out of keywords (oh, and don;t forget about all the other yadayada, primarily get incoming links, alot)

just my 2cp