Here's an article which claims we will need two planets worth of resources every year by 2050 based on current world development trends. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061024/sc_nm/environment_wwf_planet_dc Maybe we won't become extinct but at this rate there will at least be some massive die off like what happened in Easter Island when the population got to big for the islands resources.
Malthus was saying the same things two hundred years ago. He was wrong, and everyone with the same argument since him has been equally wrong.
So what you're saying is, because they haven't been right yet they will be wrong forever? Look maybe they were wrong about the time projections but consider these simple facts and draw a conclusion. The world economy is increasing at 4 - 5% a year (of course over the long term this increase is exponential). The world economy uses natural resourses to grow. Natural resources use is also increasing at an exponential rate. Natural Resource supplies are not increasing at an exponential rate but are in fact decreasing and are finite. People say... "ahh yes but technology will solve these problems. " Funny thing is... over the last century the use of more and more technologies has increased... and the use of more and more natural resource stocks has also increased.
Which of these natural resources is expiring that is crucial for our survival? And which can we do without? The only things which we need to live are: Air Water Food these resources arent running out anytime soon, and if they really start to run out technoligies would be developed to give us sustainability. Perhaps in 50-100 years we will need to live in big bubble domes.. but we would still be alive.
Don't forget: A moderate temperature Medicines/Health care Now ask yourself where our "air" (oxygen) comes from, and what factors influence the temperature on earth
So what can a bubble not provide here..? Trees for a sustainable oxygen supply, solar panels which provide power for cooling/heating needs. as for medicines/healthcare perhaps there would be a problem with production, but I would imagine large managed eco sub systems (in bubbles) should provide the resources required to create the many modern medicines. This is just an example, hopefully we dont live in bubbles. I just dont see anything short of war leading to the extinction of the human race.
You should do a search on world wheat supplies. There are huge problems with air and water quality in many parts of the world and its only getting worse. If you read above I said the likely senario is a mass die off like on Easter Island where they used up all their natural resources on the island and then almost two thirds of the population died off virtually over night. Not extinction.
Supervolcanoe, asteroid, pandemic, global climate change... there's plenty of things that could do it
Sorry i was responding more to the title then your post. Comparing easter island to the entire world is a bit much. However as a small island has limited capabilities as far as land area, ecological diversity etc. supervolcano? that seems interesting.