Hey, Well, here is where things stand today from a U.S.-centric viewpoint: 1. Ukraine and Russia at war. U.S. busy supporting Ukraine. 2. Israel and Hamas at war. U.S. busy supporting Israel. 3. US Congress unable to elect a Speaker of the House, so all legislation and funding at a standstill or soon will be. 4. Dementia Joe Biden is busy stumbling up and down stairs and is extremely vulnerable to blackmail by the Chinese based on the millions they funneled to his family over the years. With all of this turmoil and distraction, is China going to decide that this is their best time to invade Taiwan? I am very concerned that they are going to do so. Am I wrong?
I don't believe so. I'm slightly surprised that didn't happen before the Israel/Hamas situation. Seems I heard conjecture a while back that China was only waiting to see the US reaction to the Russia/Ukraine war before making a decision about invading Taiwan.
I think that the fact that Ukraine is putting up such a fierce resistance and that Russia could not roll over them as quickly as everyone originally predicted gave the Chinese a reason to pause and reflect. Taiwan is much better armed than Ukraine and as fiercely independent. That said, they have to be thinking that there will not be a better time than now to go for it.