This is an extension thread of: http://forums.digitalpoint.com/showthread.php?t=86019&page=2#post944607 You do realize that it's a lot easier to get 9% with a smaller economy. Did you even read my link? http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_13/b3977049.htm Every country starts off that way. We did, Japan did, every other small country in between. Again, China will not remain cheap labor permanently. As the above article illustrates the wages are rising extremely fast. Not all industries need labor. Inflation is primarily in energy and medicine. More doctors and oil drilling technicians....please (and oh, can you actually allow us to drill). If we want to address the real problems lets look at the data of inflation per industry, and then address them in the context we have. We should immigrate people we need, according to real numbers, not artificial beliefs. Massive immigration policy will do more harm to the energy and medical industy than help. Method means everything. Methods means everything. Mass immigration won't improve our educational system. Although meanful immigration policies and more states rights on the abortion issue might help. Hell, even a return to gold-backed currency might be a good thing to reduce inflation and make it possible for more people to home school or raise children. 9% growth for long periods of time become unhealthy, due to the fact most economic growth spurts involve default loans. China's bank is notoriously bad in loans, although we weren't doing to well in that area when we loaned to them either...that's why they took a lot more control back in that arena. Our growth numbers are normal, and no economy of our size should aim for such unhealthy numbers, because that leads to very imprudent growth and many bank defaults. It would be nice if we went back to a more productive form of credit--free banking. We use to loan primarily to producers, insteady of consumers. The loans were short-term, and the defaults were extremely low. There was nearly no inflation, so the average consumer didn't lose value on the currency. Taxes in America are odd, and generally agree with some of what you say. Method is everything, though.
Well, let the population of China share the GDP of US. The market would become much smaller per capita. Well, I don't know for your country, but in my country inflation is primarily in real estate and energy(medicine is government runned). Real estate inflation can be solved by giving the construction sector a worker bump. The same can also be given to the energy sector(building more powerplants etc), however some of these tasks needs more education than others(architecting, engineering). The problem in my country is that 80% goes to collage but after the school they have to go unemployed or if they are lucky, fill a loweducation job. When it comes to the constructure sector, it's very usuall that a construction worker start as a carpenter and ends as an engineer(getting education aside of the job). I don't really understand what you mean about abortion, please explain. Don't know if home school is good in the first years. I think the first 3 years are the most important years when you learn to read, write, math. However, I think advanced math is learned too late in the development process. In the whole, I think you get much more than you lose. Think your country 50 years ahead with an avarage growth of 3%. You end up 1,5 times richer. And think about an avarage growth about 9%. You end up 4,5 times richer. If you then decides to have a stable bank system, you can ensure that then. That's how China will do, and they will end up beeing richer than you if their plan work.
They dominate the retail sector...that's about it. Real Estate, energy, et al, are all deeply linked to demand...the more people you migrate to your country the higher the demand...price. I can't speak for your country, but we are known to charge a hand and a leg for permits in our country, especially in cities. Mere immigration in this sector won't make the prices that much better. It depends more on the laws (permits/availble land). Prefabricated houses would definitely save tons of money for the consumers. Although I think as constituents, most homeowners like the wealth they generate...as I'm very sure if our transportation industry and land was more readily available...our home prices wouldn't fly to the sky like they do. Europe in general has the lowest investment in R&D, which usually tells you where your countries going economically. The more people cutting costs through innovations the more productivity in the future...the less, the less the jobs. In our country, and particularly in our Consitution, I believe it's up the states how much they allow abortion ie to say I think our courts wrongly came up with their opinion. Most states would likely forbid anything after the first term of pregnacy, while a handful of states like California, NJ, and massuchesetts would probably let you abort a baby up to the actual birth. I'm not a fan of abortions, but Constitutionally, I think we should have it accorded to the states...and if possible we have a constitutional ban...but I doubt that. That all really depends on the health of the banks. China's in it's own world in terms of their banking system. When their loans are non-productive their state assumes control of it...doesn't work that way here or mostly anywhere. Eventually China will have to change...I think that's why they're taking so long to reform their banking system, because the moment they free it up a bit, they'll find it's not doing so well. IF...their country went into a recession with us. I don't see that many countries growing in Europe or elsewhere to replace America...so as long as China depends on consumption, then who's really the underdog?
Was that an answer? I was googling and found this Market economy is about supply and demand, not only demand. Once the supply is bigger than the demand, prices will remain or go down. Having a huge demand is good if you can satisfie it, it will generate growth. Having a low demand doesn't do any good for the growth. A balance between those is a must, but an increase in both is also neccessary if we want to create 10% growth etc.. Europe got a 27% share of the worlds R&D while Russia only have 2%, still Russia can manage a growth(GDP) between 5% and 7% while Europe is closing in somewhere at 1%(GDP). China however has an 9% share of the worlds R&D. Chinas economy is half as big as Europes, but the R&D is only a 1/3. The constitution is just a piece of paper. Times are changing. China have unofficially declared an economical war on the west. If a country attacks US, should the constition go before the countries security and therefore limit the possibillity of defence? Actually, it don't in the longterm, just in the short-term. Although some reforms could be taken that would improve the stabillity. Anyway, many Swedish companies take loans from Swedish banks and put their production in China, or take loans to move their current production from Sweden to China, even if it results in a less educated workforce. China is getting many foreign invesments. China is right now in a process where they try to focus on their inner development. Indias and Russias demand are increasing very fast, so they would compliment the lesser demand in the US. Mayby they go down to a 5%-7% growth, but not less.
Consumption for the sake of consumption? Real estate is the big business in Portugal, and one of the few...depending only one market is a sign of a bad economic/banking structure...many banks fail due to lack in diversification. Generally speaking, I believe the overall political/cultural structure of a country is ten times more important than a few percent growth in any industry. I'd much rather have a predictable and smooth political landscape than immigrate mass amounts of socialists. But yeah, I agree there's a balance between consuming and producing. Although savings is also an important part of all of this as well. Given our current banking system it's really hard to keep that in check. Of the world it seems fairly big, but the GDP is all that really counts in the longrun. China is growing very fast in R&D...America still has the best R&D, I believe. If you don't have law based on solid principle you don't have a rational country. Our Constitution is rather flexible e.g the necessary and proper clause...which has adqueately given authority in the past. People cross the line many times, but if you think a country can survive without enforced limitations on power, then you're putting a lot of faith in man. 'I trust everyone, I just don't trust the devil in them.' They should, because they're becoming more and more dependable in terms of trade. Like it or not, we have to make terms with China...there is no going back. India maybe...Russia depends on their oil industry a lot, and they don't allow very much investment in it....thus the growth is decline there. Unfortunately, it seems that all this growth will have to find a relief valve, because our energy supplies are meeting their breaking points. While I think petro is the best, we'll have to look at everything in the near future. Demand of energy may shock the world in the near future, but I guess one never knows with all this oil being in the hands of assholes. Although not to be too optimistic, I think certain technology's will make man advance quite a bit e.g nanotechnology.
Don't know about Portugal, but I agree that the political/cultural landscape is important. Not more important than the growth however. I am thinking about beeing able to manage the peaceful war with China in the best way as possible. Savings is often overestimated. The government can gather money from taxes and the central bank can lend them to banks in need and therefore be able to give out more and bigger loans. The inflation should never exceed 6%-8% however.. Not all, but mostly. Culture/Leadership/Education/Flexibillity is also important. Tell me one country that follows their constitution. I don't know any. The only way it can stop evil powers is when people raise attention when the constitution isn't followed. However, that is rarely the most important thing for them. Showing an opinion that they feel for at the time is more popular. Anyway, breaking the constitution might be neccessary for the security and other cleaning the beurocracy sometimes. We live in a time of war(cold war), don't forget that. Russian state-owned companies such as Gazprom make big investments there and Chinas state make investment in Russia as well. China is the most fuel hungry of em all. That's why the russian government decided to give their gas to China(via Gazprom) instead of EU if EU don't do what they are told, or if EU tries to tell Russia what to do(Belarus election etc). In this case, a big state monopoly can be really usefull. I wish EU could be that smart. Hopefully you are right. But the problem is if humans becomes property of the implemented devises producers, such as Veritech. But that's hopefully wont happen, although I don't know the programmers intentions. ---------------- I agree that mexican illegal immigration isn't the best solution. An abortion ban would do much better on the growth numbers and on the same time preserve the cultural identity.
Well, what I want to do is prevent civil conflicts within America. Putting opposite masses in America isn't going to help America in the future. That's a rather dangerous way of living. That wasn't my context. Generally speaking, the courts usually do well...not all the time, but most of the time. But true...nothing can replace an educated culture of people whom know their countries laws. We ALWAYS are in a time of war. It would be nice if women didn't have abortions...for many reasons. Yes, that would be one of them.
That's why I told you that there must be inflation goals. The inflation shouldn't be too high. May I suggest you to take a look at this post My government has recently closed down a site belonging to a nationalistic party despite that such move was illegal according to our constitution etc.. Sometime more serious sometime less. There was a bright period after the fall of Soviet. Agree
Sorry to bump this old thread.. but I found an interesting article regarding the growth and education.. http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/11/21/6044