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USD/JPY: FOREX OUTLOOK 08:48 19.03.2018 The yen is appreciating against the greenback again. Despite attempts of the US dollar to return its positions, news from the White House did not let the greenback to recover. Worries about the Trump’s protectionism and trade wars were reinforced by the replacements in the White House. The US President fired the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and appointed the ex-director of CIA Mike Pompeo to this position. Both economic and political international policy of the US may become tighter. A new White House economic adviser announced a tougher policy in regard to China. Today the dollar weakened further as investors considered the implications of continuing personnel turmoil in the Trump administration. According to the Washington Post, Mr. Trump plans to remove his national security adviser. Now the pair has come to 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement, if it is able to break it, the next support lies at 105.5. However, there are chances that the greenback will find the support next week and the direction of USD/JPY will finally change. On next Wednesday we anticipate the US rate’s hike. According to forecasts, the Fed will raise the interest rate to 1.75%. Furthermore, a scandal with Japanese finance minister that is related to the school land sale still puts pressure on the yen. If there is an escalation of the scandal, the yen will weaken. That is not so bad for the Japanese currency because the dollar’s plunge below 105 will be critical for the yen and the Bank of Japan policy.
GBP/USD: BULLISH "FLAG" PATTERN 10:56 19.03.2018 There's a bullish "Flag", so the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.3996 - 1.4069. This area could be a starting point for a decline towards another support at 1.3928 - 1.3888. The price is still consolidating in a range of the developing "Flag" pattern. Also, there's a pullback from the Moving Averages, so the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.3996 - 1.4023 in the short term.
USD/JPY: MAIN TARGET IS 89 MA 12:15 20.03.2018 The pair has been rising since the last "Engulfing" pattern formed. The main target is the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be a moment for another decline. There's a bearish "High Wave" pattern, which hasn't been confirmed yet. So, if a pullback from the Moving Averages happens, bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window".
EUR/USD: BEARISH "HIGH WAVE" PATTERN 12:13 20.03.2018 There're bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star", which both have been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 144 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. The last bearish "High Wave" pattern led to the current decline. It's likely that the pair is going to test the next support area in the short term. If any reversal pattern forms afterwards, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward price movement.
GBP/USD: THE POUND DREW AN INSIDE BAR 07:31 21.03.2018 Recommendations: BUY 1.4065 SL 1.401 TP1 1.4165 TP2 1.4225 On the daily chart of GBP/USD, there was a natural pullback after the pair reached the 88.6% target of the subsidiary “Shark” pattern. An inside bar was formed. A break of the resistance at 1.4065 will increase risks of the rally’s continuation to the 88.6% target of the parent “Shark” pattern. On H1, the formation of the reversal “Three Indians” pattern endangered the implementation of “Wolfe Waves” and “Shark” patterns. To continue the uptrend, bulls need to break the resistance at 1.4065.
USD/CHF: FRANC IS LOSING GROUND 06:49 21.03.2018 Recommendation: BUY 0.9520 SL 0.9465 TP1 0.9620 TP2 0.9720 TP3 0.9770 On the daily chart of USD/CHF, bulls managed to settle above an important level of 0.9510. This indicates their strength and allows to expect an advance to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. To begin with, however, the pair needs to get out of the descending channel. On H1, there’s a sustainable uptrend. Pullbacks to support at 0.9520 and 0.9480 should be used for buying with targets at 161.8% and 200% of AB=CD.
GBP/USD: POUND IS NEAR MAIN RESISTANCE 07:46 22.03.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.4140; resistance – 1.4200, 1.4250. Trade recommendations: Sell — 1.4200; SL — 1.4220; TP1 — 1.4140; TP2 — 1.4080. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market was supported by Kijun-sen, but now is overbought and it’s under strong resistance.
EUR/USD: THE BULLS RETURNING TO MARKET 07:45 22.03.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.2300, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2400. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2360; SL — 1.2340; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450 Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the market are returned into the positive area.
USD/JPY: "INVERTED HAMMER" PATTERN 13:29 26.03.2018 There's a "Piercing Line", which has been formed at the last local low. So, we should keep an eye on the Moving Averages as an intraday bullish target. We've got an "Inverted Hammer", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods" pattern. So, bulls are likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, there'll be a moment for another decline.
WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: MAR. 26-30 11:29 26.03.2018 US President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that will target up to $60 billion of Chinese products with tariffs. If China comes up with countermeasures, trade tensions will escalate further. Concerns about trade wars have overshadowed central bank policy. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to 1.75% and signaled a relatively upbeat outlook for the economy. This is exactly the outcome the market was expecting, and the US dollar didn’t get any strength from the event. The US dollar index declined and looks vulnerable for 2018 lows in the 89.20 area. In the current uncertain environment, traders prefer low-risk assets like the Japanese yen, especially in pairs like AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. As for USD/JPY, if it settles below the key level of 105.00, we’ll see a deeper decline. GBP/USD rose to the highest levels since January above 1.4200. The pound went up as the European Union and Britain agreed on a Brexit transition deal and the UK released strong wage growth figures. Two members of the Bank of England unexpectedly voted for a rate hike. However, traders focused on the idea that rates will rise only very slowly, so the pound retreated down by the end of the week. Traders continue to expect a rate hike in May, so the meeting didn’t really bring any surprises. The 200-week MA creates resistance near 1.43. GBP/USD may retrace down to 1.3930 and 1.38. EUR/USD continued consolidation between 1.24 and 1.22. Long-term uptrend remains in place, although the pair has lost its bullish momentum. European PMIs came below expectations. As a result, we expect the euro to continue trading close to the current levels. Economic calendar The economic calendar for the upcoming days is very light. Friday will be a bank holiday in many countries because of approaching Easter. The few important releases include US consumer confidence on Tuesday, American GDP on Wednesday and British current account together with Canadian GDP and US core PCE price index on Thursday.
GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN 08:49 27.03.2018 There's a "Double Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.4144. However, if we see a pullback from this line afterwards, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.4277 - 1.4344. There're two "V-Top" patterns in a row. So, the pair is likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average, which could be a starting point for another bullish price movement.
EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN 08:48 27.03.2018 The main trend is still bullish, but there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction in the short term. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2412 - 1.2387 as an intraday target. There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2412 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement.
GOLD (XAU/USD) ENDING A POSSIBLE CORRECTIVE MOVE 18:40 28.03.2018 Gold has been trading in a bearish tone below the 50 SMA at H1 chart following the US GDP data release during March 28th session. Currently, we’re seeing a corrective move to take place in favor of the overall bullish structure and if the XAU/USD pair touches the 65% Fibonacci level at 1324, it could gather momentum to resume the bullish bias towards the -23.6% Fibonacci area at 1368. RSI indicator is in the oversold territory, calling for an imminent rebound.
BITCOIN (BTC/USD): STRONG BIDS PLACED AROUND 7,586 18:36 28.03.2018 Bitcoin continues to find support above the 7586 level, where buyers are actively concentrated and trying to resume the upward bias in the short term. Currently, there is a slight consolidation below the 50-hour moving average, which suggests that the current formation is that of a bearish pattern. In Denmark, Danske Bank has announced that it will prohibit the trading of cryptocurrencies on its platforms, although they will still allow credit card transactions to customers in general. In addition, a regulated entity of the United States has sent a reminder to its members to report all activities that concern cryptocurrency. The Parabolic SAR continues in favor of the bulls, although we are observing that this indicator is showing signs of weakness for the short term. The resistance of 8041 continues being an important barrier to face, reason why the rupture of the level of 7586 will be key to determine the following way of the BTC. What do we expect? According to our forecasts in the short-term, the BTC/USD pair aims to enter a consolidation stage above 7586, so that buyers could help push upwards towards the 200-hour moving average as the first objective. However, if such support comes to cede, the Bitcoin could rush to the level of 7068.
EUR/USD ANALYSIS: INSIDE AN ACTIVE DEMAND ZONE 18:09 01.04.2018 The pair is currently trading inside a strong demand zone that could allow more gains in the short-term. Don't miss the next video!
EUR/USD: BULLISH 'INVERTED HAMMER' 14:17 02.04.2018 There's a bullish 'Inverted Hammer', which has been confirmed by the last 'Three Methods'. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance area, which could be a departure point for another decline. The lower 'Window' acted as support, so the price is rising. Also, there're two 'Three Methods' models in a row, so the market is likely going to move up until any bearish pattern forms.