Iwebtool had predicted pr for one of my website 5, when it was at PR 4 before last update. and now website PR is goes down to 2...
I have several sites that have a PR of 0 at this time .the tools I have used state an estimated rank of 6, 7 and five. It just does not say when. It maybe on the next update or a year from now. Like you said they have a 10% chance of getting it right and Its not going to give out a 9 or 10 prediction.
I find that if you have a PR of 0 the tools predict a very high PR - 5 to 6 for most of my new sites. However, when you havea non-0 PR, the prediction is much closer to the truth. Maybe the tools are written to not predict to far a jump when you have a non - PR.
they cannot be accurate, as no one knows the algorithm...they just have some formula of their own and try to guess.
It is just for fun. I checked it once. The result was Pr6, but I got only PR3 when Google updated. Very big difference.
All those tools still predict PR6 for one of my sites but the site still has PR0... conclusion? you cannot trust those tools.
Totally useless... I'd tested over 50 similar sites, but none of them provide me the accurate information for the next PR update...
right guys this is the one i mentioned in the quoted post above. I just looked back at the estimates it gave and it got 29 out of 33 (changes) on sites we are in charge of correct. 87% accuracy last time round. http://www.pagerankprediction.com/
another vote for http://pagerankprediction.com - That site almost always guesses correctly, and if its not spot on, its close.