Anybody own any Google Stock?

Goog will probably drop under $400 today - good time to buy? I think so.
The reason why I think G is a good buy is because really, although I think it'll hover around 400 for awhile now - it won't go significantly down until someone gives me better SERPs or cooler toys.

In other words, I think there will be plenty of advanced warning.

 

sorry but what is google stock *puts my head down in shame*

 

it is always a good time to buy google. This stock is a juggernaut.

 

No way this stock will maintain. I predict a 50% correcting in price coming soon. Consumer/debt society about to implode due to loss of manufacturing base, loss of personal savings, RE bubble bust, and impending dollar crises. Once the Asians figure out that our debt is no good and they can't rely on the all mighty American consumer, they will stop buying our bonds, the dollar will tank and the implosion begins. Could happen at any time now, but so far, nobody has "blinked". Feb is a good guess as to the start of the meltdown. BTW: this is the "gloom" scenario, not the "doom" scenario which is much, much darker.

A high-p/e fluff-ball like GOOG will get totally hammered in a market meltdown.

 

I see a lot of these negative possibilities too, and it does worry me. However, history says that at almost any given time, a reasonable person could look at the potential disasters in the world and say "oh my god, the sky is going to fall." However, the market usually sorts itself out and pays good returns over time.

Check out this link, I posted it in another thread. This guy is a financial advisor, and has an economics degree from Amherst. He looks at excuses that people have used over the last 40 years not to invest in the market. Then he shows you what $10,000 would be now, had it been invested in the S&P 500 in that year.

http://www.john-ross.net/excuses.htm

Here are some of the first:

1961 - The Berlin Wall is up, the Bay of Pigs was a disaster, and I'm out of the market. $10,000 = $569,400

1962 - This Missile Crisis put us damned close to World War III. $10,000 = $446,800

1963 - After November 22, 1963, nothing will ever be the same again. $10,000 = $498,400

1964 - We've bombed North Vietnam and been attacked in the Gulf of Tonkin. This looks serious. $10,000 = $412,200

1965 - We can never afford both the "Great Society" and a war in Vietnam. These policies will bankrupt our country. $10,000 = $354,500

1966 - The Dow peaked at 995 and has been dropping ever since. The bull market is over. $10,000 = $309,900

1967 - A six day war in the Middle East and five days of rioting in Detroit. I'm going to keep my powder dry. $10,000 = $339,400

 

yeah, i agree.

 

i also have a degree in economics and this statement is a little 'too good to be true.' unfortunately for those of us in the US, fiscal policy plays a huge role in what gets sorted out. running a large deficit like we are right now makes us do better in the short run, but if things aren't changed we end up in (technically this is termed the "medium run") a situation where we have higher interest rates but not higher output. the higher interest rates and a return to original output lead to a decrease in investment, which in the long run leads to a decrease in our output/GDP.

We've been lucky enough to have a very good chairman (imo) at the fed, but he's retiring soon. greenspan has repeatedly warned of the problems i mention above, but the politicians don't seem to be listening (it makes sense because SHORT RUN outpout goes up, which makes them look better at the moment).

 

People have been saying that since the IPO. Tech stocks always trade at a higher multiple than other sectors. But it doesn't matter. I will keep making money pessimists can watch from the sidelines.

 

Why didn't you just say a year ago? But man, that's really good. If I could go back in time I would buy a ton of Microsoft, Google, and all that other good stock. Sweet, sweet stock.... oh so sweet.

 

Don't mean to toot my own horn, but I said G was a good buy last year, here's one time back in October 2004, when Google was $125:

Name of the thread on seochat was "Is Google Stock Overvalued?" Note that Egol says he shorted Google right after my post. I hope he covered his short.

http://forums.seochat.com/google-ne...overvalued-14884-3.html?pp=15&highlight=stock

 

Haha Sharpseo, nice link.

 

You're right with your statement and it is good to hold your shares. The quotes I made were made during and interview in wall street journal.
I just try to point out that it is overheading for now and that there will be setback in the near future or a correction (to use other words). After the speculators have vanished the stock will be pretty stable then and grow on a much slower pace.

For some it will be painful.

 

We could see another 5 percent correction, but that is it. Google stock doesn't correct much and after it does correct it always makes new highs. The big money guys are going to bid the stock into quadruple digits.

 

I see the domination by Google diminishing in the next 2-3 years. Google has already stated "there's room for more than one winner in the search engine market". I think they're very aware that MSN will be making major inroads into their market soon, and there's little they can do about it.

With the release of Vista and IE7, everyone will have an MSN search box conveniently stuck in the top right corner of their screen (like the FireFox searchbox). People will also be able to grab a google toolbar if they want, but the vast majority of surfers are lazy, and MSN's results are good enough that the casual user won't care.

Google is extremely well branded so they will continue to lead for a while, but they have yet to show that they can really diversify their income stream, and so may lose out as the competition moves in. I wouldn't count on them becoming more valuable than MS.

Edit: ok, looks like google and others will be immediately available in the search bar. I'd post a link but I'm not allowed yet ^_^.

 

Are you sure about that? I thought the only reason they hadn't done that already was anti-trust concerns. Haven't they gotten in trouble for integrating their commercial products into windows and IE? I know they had to pay like $700 million to Realplayer a few months ago, I forget the details of the case though.

 

Previews I've read on recent builds of IE7 have the searchbox in place, so I'm expecting it will stick. However, I've also read that the final version may include other popular engines as well (again, like FF does), so this may be what they end up doing. If so, I expect it will encourage more cross searching in any case.

 

MSN search BoX,

that is great idea

 

Yeah, it was actually $761 million!

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588_22-5901610.html

 

Google hit a new all time high today, $432.50. I think investors had accepted that they were going to lose all the AOL revenue, or at least that there was a very good chance of it.

Now that it looks like they're going to retain their relationship with AOL, and own 5% of the company, this revenue is getting built back into their valuation.

What I'm really curious about is how much Yahoo's publisher program will hurt Google in the short, and long term. I know my Google adsense revenue is down substantially since I got into YPN

 

hence the reason why google will settle..

with yahoo coming out a few months ago,, i dont believe the actual figures of the damage it has done to the google ad revenues have been tallied up.. and I think around Jan or Feb these facts will unfold and you will see a correction in stock price,,, then if you add the MSN ad network if it launches in 2006 then you definitely better have a good exit strategy.. with MS and Yahoo pulling the profits out the pocket of G, their earnings statements are going to scare the hell out of investors.