I am preparing a highly seasonal ecommerce venture which will be fueled mostly by Google Adwords, and I have a question about the Adwords Traffic Estimator and seasonal keywords. Example: If you put "Christmas trees" into the Estimator (leaving the budget blank), you will get an estimated 50-69 clicks per day, with the "local monthly searches" figure at 1.5 million. Put the same keywords into Google Trends, and you will find that searches for "Christmas trees" occur almost exclusively in early December. Is the Adwords Estimator, in fact, returning the estimated traffic for an "average" month? If this is true, it seems to me that the correct figure of clicks would be 50-69 x 12. Opinions would be greatly appreciated.
To be fair, Adwords estimator has never been the most accurate of tools. Multiplying it by 12 won't give you the right figure. In any case if you write a strong ad you could get a much higher number of clicks than that. The only way to find is during your campaign. I only use the traffic estimator to see what's possible but I never take it too seriously. Also adding negative keywords when estimating your ad traffic will sometimes increase the number of clicks it predicts. In your position I would be more worried about how much it would cost to make a sale and how much profit you will make. It is going to get more competitive as time goes on and cost per click will go up significantly. The winners will be designed to upsell the visitor very quickly and possibly get him/her to come back for more. Your landing pages and website must be properly optimised to sell those trees!