It is no secret that the information supplied by adwords is often misleading. I don't think it is unreasonable to say that the 'inaccuracies' are aimed at making us spend more money. Estimated bids are one area that makes me thing hmmm... I often see a keyword displaying the orange warning 'below first page bid' yet when I look at the average position in campaign stats it is #1 and the keyword has a healthy click through rate! I can't help thinking this is aimed at those who do not run adwords accounts daily and would be tricked into higher bids. This may also be a tool for the 'someone at google' who will contact you in an effort to let google handle your account. DON'T DO IT! Every account I have taken over from google has performed better and cost less. I also expanded an account for a property company today, one set of 10 keywords for the US region has a 100% 10/10 quality score, added Australia with the same ads and same keywords and 1x 4/10 and 9x 3/10. Same ads, same keywords, both English speaking countries and the keywords are not related to a product in the US but in another country! I know there is some improvement in quality score as the ads are clicked but the US campaign is 1 week old, hardly enough time to go from zero to hero! Go Figure eh...
This sometimes happens. It's just a quirk of the system, the way they calculate these things. I believe the system calculates estimates based on all-time data and no matter the location of the advertiser or whether they are still active or not. So if you have "london widgets" as a keyword and there's been few others to bid on that keyword and happen to overpay because of poor QS, your estimate (which is based on your QS) will be inflated. You'll see what you experience on local keywords and low competition verticals more often. As you say, it's only a warning. You make the decision on whether to act on this or not and how. Since your position is good (and assuming that's where you want to be), do nothing and don't pay the message any attention. I'd check however your Impression Share as well. If you have a healthy share (80% and more), I would not worry about it. I've been trying to tell people not to pay much attention to click rate as well. What makes you think you have a healthy one? Check your QS. It tells you if it's healthy or not as it measures click rate against competitors. You're fine if it's 7 to 10, but do try to improve no matter the number. Misleading? I suppose. But it helps to understand how things work. Also to analyze your data and not jump when an algorithm tells you to, especially if you are satisfied with the results. As I've seen my share of accounts started by Google not doing very well, I agree that it may not be a good idea to let them set it up. It's basically a factory and those people are paid low salaries and have little practical experience and probably little training. It is offered free so what do you expect? Best to spend some money and get a professional do it. I don't think it's bad intentions on the part of Google and make more money, just the nature of the beast. Finally, even if you use the same keywords and same ads, doesn't mean you'll get the same results. There can be big differences between countries. Heck, there can be big differences between regions of the same country. So I suggest trying different ads in different places.