There is a high probability that they will ban you. I think you need to persist with your old account and keep writing to mail. If they feel they are sincere they will consider your case with sympathy. Besides you can always look for options beyond google.
genkied a friend of mine and a dp member also do that and i talk to him last christmas he told me that his banned account has been reinstated after 5 months and 10 emails he send in google adsense tech support.