The Pentagon and geologists recently announced that there could be as much as $1 trillion in mineral rights in Afghanistan. Oh my that changes things. Evidently the Soviets looked into this back in the 1980's when they attacked Afghanistan. Now US geologists have spent about 3 years studying this and recently announced their findings and estimates. I believe the time frame in research. One of my life long best friends has been an excutive in the mining industry for years and years. It takes that much time or more to evaluate potential output. Even after that there is a lot of risk in mining. There might be a strike. There might not be a strike with regard to certain locations. Within that part of the world there are all sorts of mining opportunities. My friend has mined a few of them. That finding changes things as far as Afghanistan is concerned. Everyone suddenly treats it differently. The Afghanis will have an opportunity to capitalize on major investment money and commerce. Mining companies from around the world will flock there to investigate the opportunities and the risks. Next door neighbor China, which has been sucking up resources like a world wide vaccuum cleaner will be there in no time flat. This huge level of modern commerce will defiinitely change things there. How it will play out will be interesting to follow.
I had the opportunity to ask my friend about this today. Here are some salient pieces of information; along with some data on Afgani GDP. Latest GDP figures are about $13.5 billion/year for the nation. A $1 trillion valuation on mining makes an enormous difference. GDP/person = about $450/person. Its a poor nation. 80% of the economy is based on agriculture. Wow that level of mining opportuinites could change the nation. How will it change? My friend cited two nations with mining rules. Not sure what this means or how it plays out, but my friend cited Chilean national mining laws as working and Ghana national mining laws as not working. Risk assessment is serious. Who wants to invest $billions in a nation where there is war? Frankly nobody. I recall as far back ias the 1990's when my friend had something to do with obtaining risk assessment analyses concerning mining opportuniteis from around the world. The coincidence was that the British based company that supplied this info had its US office in the DC region, and my ex wife provided collateral advertising materials to the business and one of the contacts for my friend. Small world. The time frame to develop minilng and the costs are enormous. It takes many years to get mining operattions up. Developing the capacity to extract these minerals will take a long time, if there was no war. At this stage it will take far longer. In any case the entire opportunity dramatically changes the landscape for Afghanistan. Its a nation with economic opportunity. How it plays out will be fascinating.
A couple predictions. Either: A) A corrupt Muslim leadership in Afghanistan will somehow screw all his countrymen out of any portion of the wealth to be found in these mineral deposits and do business on a basis of bribes and payoffs with a cadre of international businessmen from a variety of countries including the US or B) A pack of thugs so heavily connected to the Taliban it is impossible to tell them apart will screw all his countrymen out of any portion of the wealth to be found in these mineral deposits, and use all the proceeds from the mines to fund terrorism world wide. Either way, the Afghans will get fucked, yet again, by their fellow Muslim country men. At least they will have Allah.
This is very good news for the region. People would have the opportunity to lift themselves out of poverty. But I hope it does not become another Saudi Arabia, where the Royal Family is rich, but people are poor and unemployment is 12%. I don't want to see another socialist corrupt government there.
lol you guys are amazing! Like US never ever supported corrupted regimes to get something froma country they want! You already forgot Iran huh? How about Saudi Arabia? And SA is probably biggest terrorist supported in todays world but hey! As long as we get what we want from them it's ok
I used Iran and Saudi Arabia as my historical models. I guess you didn't catch the very direct parallels which were so clearly stated, in my two options.
Afghan mineral deposits worth $3 trillion, says mining official - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/18/afghanistan-mineral-deposits Afghan Minerals -- Cure, Curse, or Hype? - http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6607
The issue is not whether it is a $1 trillion the initial estimates, or slightly more than $900 billion, the initial cited source, or $3 trillion, recent estimates included in language by the premier of Afghanistan. The issue is $0 value or some enormous value. It depends if Afghanistan ever becomes a nation in which mining can occur. Currently it looks more like the $0 value. There will have to be monumental changes before a single entity anywhere would invest a single dollar to make it happen.