A different take on how Clinton won in New Hampshire

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by earlpearl, Jan 11, 2008.

  1. #1
    Hillary Clinton's victory in the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire surprised everyone including herself and her staff. The victory ran contrary to the polls running up to the primary itself.

    Many have been struggling to try and explain how it happened.

    Here is an entirely different take on the topic from Madeline Kunin, former governor of Vermont (dem), who is evidently writing a book on the topic.

    She comments upon the number of women in office in different states around the nation and suggests that states that have a larger percentage of women in higer office such as the state legislatures, congressional offices or governorship might be more likely to support a woman running for the Presidency.

    She noted that women voters represented 57% of the vote in both the Iowa caucas and the New Hampshire primary.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/10/AR2008011003273.html

    I simply thought it was interesting. I suppose the upcoming primaries will present an excellent opportunity to test out the theory.
     
    earlpearl, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  2. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #2
    I think another contributing factor was that her tears help in a very important way especially to the woman voters. Till then she was seen as a politician first and a woman second. Her tears allow woman voters to see another side of her, the softer side which appealed to them and that swings the votes possibly.
     
    wisdomtool, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  3. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #3
    I still can't get past how when the balloting moved from paper to digital, the tables were turned on several candidates.

    Kucinich and some fringe Republican have requested vote recounts, but I am pretty sure the machines won't be caught if there is fraud.
     
    guerilla, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  4. earlpearl

    earlpearl Well-Known Member

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    #4
    Wisdom, Guerilla:

    In either case it would be interesting to track Hillary Clinton's campaign with regard to primary states that have a lot of women in high office.

    I simply found the thesis interesting.
     
    earlpearl, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  5. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #5
    I have my own theories on this as well and it is interesting.

    I'm wondering though, and forgive the implication of bias, but it is there, so I will bring it up, what effect a black congresswoman or state official might have on the sentiment in her constituency given that Obama is Clinton's primary foil.

    Still obsessed with the balloting though. Can't help it. Something just feels wrong.
     
    guerilla, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  6. AGS

    AGS Notable Member

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    #6
    That's cobblers mate, she is more masculine than most blokes lol! She's brutal.

    I put it down in part to 2 things, Diebold and women voters voting en mass for a female. It's a novelty.
     
    AGS, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  7. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #7
    Come on :), I beg to differ on that, she's a lady, a very intelligent lady, her credentials are awesome and her career is much better than most men but she is still a lady. A brutal lady maybe hehe........

    It is a novelty that Obama and Clinton are both more or less front runners though Obama is currently the underdog, but if any of them wins it is really going to make history. For the Democratic party it is a very interesting election.

    I would love to see the trends on how women and blacks vote for Obama and Clinton as the race progresses. This is one of the most interesting USA Presidential election for a long time.


     
    wisdomtool, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  8. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #8
    Isn't it possible that Obama had an Iowa win bounce that helped over estimate his polling, Hilary has been the front runner for the past year.
     
    soniqhost.com, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  9. wisdomtool

    wisdomtool Moderator Staff

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    #9
    The win raised his expectations too much such that he had only the victory speech but was stunned when he lost, at least that was what I heard in the news. Maybe some overconfidence on his side that allow him to let Clinton slip back from behind and win. It is also good in a sense now that the front runner label is back on Clinton and she would be the one rivals aim at instead of Obama, this might give Obama some breathing space to catch up in the race.

     
    wisdomtool, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  10. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #10
    What I read about the polling is that Obama received what he expected except that the people you might of voted for John Edwards shifted to Clinton which gave her the win.
     
    soniqhost.com, Jan 11, 2008 IP
  11. Dreads

    Dreads Well-Known Member

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    #11
    i believe her crying / showing her soft side was a dirty trick, I dont believe she is the "right" women to run the country.

    The "Crying" was a last minute move so she can get some extra votes.
     
    Dreads, Jan 12, 2008 IP
  12. soniqhost.com

    soniqhost.com Notable Member

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    #12
    well it looks like it worked
     
    soniqhost.com, Jan 12, 2008 IP
  13. guerilla

    guerilla Notable Member

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    #13
    guerilla, Jan 12, 2008 IP