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2012 Election prediction

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Delton, Feb 23, 2012.

  1. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #21
    I doubt you believe Iran is going to magically reconcile tomorrow, or even in the next two months. I believe the supreme court has already scheduled Obamacare. If Iran doesn't reconcile, gas prices are definitely going to go up, unless Obama were to suddenly to become oil exploration friendly. Some large portion of the price of our gas is based on future availability, and Obama has cut federal oil exploration permits by 70% in some areas.

    This isn't hoping for disaster, this is stating the news, and quite a bit of it is directly related to Obama's conduct as a president to date.

    On the topic of hoping for disaster, let me ask you this. Imagine you had an abusive husband who had been beating your children for three years. Towards the end of the fourth year(November), you manage to get a person from child services to come out and investigate, but your husband finds out ahead of time. He stops beating the kids and it looks like all the bruises are going to go away before the investigator arrives, meaning he will get to continue doing what he has been doing for three years. Would it be wrong to hope your kids still had recent enough beatings and bruises to get things to change permanently?

    Personally, I have a crystal clear memory of the last three years, but most voters are like abused spouses. They get tooled over on a daily basis, but towards election day, their politicians bring them roses and do everything they can to make themselves likable, or at least fear what would happen on leaving them.

    For all the bluster and hype, when Nov. 2nd rolls around, most people will vote based on how they feel about things at that moment. Most wont care if Obama put their children into financial slavery, or brought the country dangerously close to the tipping point of financial failure. Liberals won't care if he backtracked on 90% of the campaign promises he made, or if his administration was the most corrupt in memorable history. It will all come down to the events of the 45-90 days before election day.
     
    Obamanation, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  2. boblord666

    boblord666 Member

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    #22
    OK - you got me.

    I will wager $AUD500.00 on Barack Obama to win the 2012 Presidential election at odds even.
     
    boblord666, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  3. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #23
    Read it again. I did criticise 'conservatives' for that event, not the Republicans. I meant to say I expect/imagine Republicans would follow the same path, then finished that sentence with a full stop.

    I then went on to criticize something I don't like about ALL 'conservatives' (though republicans being considered conservatives, I guess I can see where you got that angle).

    In Australia we have one party pushing for corporate ideals (Liberals) and another pushing for people's ideals (Labor). I expect Dems and Reps are the same and the 2PP would be similar again in the UK. I can't work out why anyone would vote for 'conservatives' from any party because they ALL openly rort people's rights.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2012
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  4. ApocalypseXL

    ApocalypseXL Notable Member

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    #24
    [​IMG]

    If you say so :rolleyes:
     
    ApocalypseXL, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  5. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #25
    Doesnt appear your grasp of whats going on matches the reality on the ground here. The current administration has made attemptd to circumvent several sections of the bill of rights they dont like, and it's conservatives trying to keep them from doing it.

    As for the bet... lets keep it in the realm you really might pay. The larger the figure the less likely some guy on the other side of the planet is really going to pay up... and if the guys in power now get another 4 years I'm gonna need the cash. Let's go $25 US. Deal?
     
    robjones, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  6. James Byun

    James Byun Active Member

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    #26
    I feel like romney is going to win. I feel like whoever holds majority of money and has super pac..will win because they control everything.
     
    James Byun, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  7. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #27
    If its about money, I believe Obama is well ahead of Romney. After all, he is accepting SuperPAC money as well. Considering that all the big business groups (Oil, Wall St., etc) make contributions to both sides of any election, just to be safe, and that Unions are probably the single largest source of cash, I'd say the Obama will continue to hold the money edge.

    Let me ask you, do you plan to vote for whoever the superPac's tell you to, or are you able to think for yourself?
     
    Obamanation, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  8. Rebecca

    Rebecca Notable Member

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    #28
    An abusive husband that beats his kids is not a good comparison. If I answered that literally, I would say a mother that watches her kids getting beaten down for three years, and does nothing, is most likely guilty as well of child abuse, as an enabler. Unless, she was living in a constant state of fear, afraid for her life. Still, it would be very suspect in my mind. I think most would file charges against the husband, take off with the kids, get sole custody, Or, their husband may end up neatly buried under a rosebush in the garden. I don't know. But I don't like your analogy very much. With comparing a president to an abusive husband, for one with a different political ideology, they could just as easily say the same about Bush. Anyway, I do wish the best for our country, prosperity, opportunity, and happiness, regardless of whether we have a Republican or Democrat president, at election time or otherwise.
     
    Rebecca, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  9. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #29
    Haha, I wasn't talking about what you would do, but rather what a chronically abused wife/girlfriend might do. Its my understanding that abused women often go back to their abusers. You hear Rihanna is back with Chris Brown? :D

    Regarding the analogy, any person in a position of power can do great harm thinking he is doing what is best or necessary. In relationships, i suspect a lot of abuse comes from jealousy and fear of loss. Channeling billions of taxpayer dollars to state employee unions and more specifically states that vote Democrat while the federal budget desperately needs to be balanced could be the textbook definition of an action that is abusive of the taxpayers based on expansion of power and fear of loss (of the next election). Selling guns to Mexican cartels to justify stronger gun laws is abusive as hell.

    The constant lying from the bully pulpit while this nonsense is going on plain as day smacks of a lying cheating boyfriend pleading for another chance, and we taxpayers are probably stupid enough to take him back if the pain of the last betrayal is sufficiently in the past.

    Granted, i believe Obama often acts in what he feels is in the best interest of the country, and not only what is in his party's and his own interest, but that is still no excuse for failure. Like most abused spouses and girlfriends, we can do better.
     
    Obamanation, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  10. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #30
    Thats one i cant believe isnt getting more air time. Its just so obvious
    -- obama makes speeches about US arms drifting below the border
    -- suddenly the feds start telling gun dealers to allow purchases by known straw buyers
    -- feds *accidentally* fail to track these properly and, what a shock, the arms end up in Mexico.

    Anyone that cant figure that one out would buy the Bay Bridge from a guy in shades on the street corner.
    Obama didnt have the crisis he needed, so he manufactured it so he could go after the 2nd amendment.
     
    robjones, Mar 3, 2012 IP
  11. Rebecca

    Rebecca Notable Member

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    #31
    Sure. But if by better, you mean a Republican president, I'm not sure if it will be the year, with the weak candidates they've put forth.
     
    Rebecca, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  12. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #32
    Yah, that is what I am told by the ex who beat me, cheats on me, and abuses me. No better alternative.

    The Republicans won't field multiple candidates. There will only be one, and that one is increasingly looking like it is going to be Romney (Intrade has it at 81%, Republican voters polled at 65%).

    When comparing Romney to Obama, weak is hardly an applicable word. Bland is about the worst word they can use, though moderate has been used as an insult quite a bit these days, and I think it fits Romney well.

    By every definition, Romney is a stronger candidate. He has more executive experience from a political perspective. He has decades of private sector experience. Most important, in my opinion, he has a proven ability to lead in a bi-partisan fashion, something Obama has proven he is completely incapable of.

    Obama seems to think one can build consensus by calling the members of the opposing party obstructionists when they don't roll over for his agenda. He thinks if he spreads enough dirt in the media, calls them enough names, and attacks their sources of funding he'll get his way. That may work in Chicago where one party and one family control the city, but it doesn't work in the Federal government, as you can see from his lack of results. Bullying and intimidation result in resistance, not capitulation.

    Congressional approval is at record lows, both because he is campaigning against them, and because they haven't produced anything. Reid wont even bring Obama's budget up for discussion. The problem is, the blame for all that divisiveness eventually falls at Obama's doorstep. He is the leader. The buck stops with him, whether he likes it or not.

    Isn't that how things are done in Chicago?
     
    Obamanation, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  13. boblord666

    boblord666 Member

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    #33
    Well, guess if it's the best you can do, it's a deal. Wager is set in concrete.
     
    boblord666, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  14. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #34
    Oh... I could do more if I trusted you to pay, but that not being the case, $25 will keep my exposure nearer what I'd probably get anyway. Consider it a bet.

    Dont ask me to bet on your elections in return though, as I dont presume to suggest who should run your country. Just not that interested. LOL. And I thought sticking their nose into how others run their country was supposed to be an American trait. :)
     
    robjones, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  15. boblord666

    boblord666 Member

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    #35
    Just wanted your money mate. Anyway bet on.
     
    boblord666, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  16. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #36
    I think if we set up a whole pile of rules that forced you to live by our rules you would stick your nose in to our business too. Not only are we subject to following you into whatever wars US decides upon, our drug policies (and the world's) are maintained because of US interests. I'm sure you'll find there's a lot more where we are at the beck and call of your government due to the treaties we signed yonks ago. If it was up to us I think marijuana would be legalised here for one, likely most other drugs too. That's only one reason, off the top of my head.
     
    Bushranger, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  17. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #37
    Lotsa luck. The apologist in chief is about to end his only term. I'll send paypal info in November for collection.

    I dont smoke dope, but making it a crime while bourbon is legal is unconscionably two-faced and a tremendous waste of resources, both in terms of enforcement and lives of those that do nothing more harmful than my beveridge of choice.

    As for treaties your government signs, ya gotta talk to them about that. They get voted in by you, not me.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2012
    robjones, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  18. boblord666

    boblord666 Member

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    #38
    Australians have a saying. "Put your money where your mouth is."

    Arrange with Cricket to hold our respective $500.00 bets and we will both put our money there for her to hold. Otherwise just cut the crap.
     
    boblord666, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  19. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #39
    One post later you're trying to change the terms? Lol. And you wonder why i dont trust you.
     
    robjones, Mar 4, 2012 IP
  20. boblord666

    boblord666 Member

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    #40
    Oh man - I give up - sheesh. Petty change bet stands.
     
    boblord666, Mar 4, 2012 IP