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2012 Election prediction

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by Delton, Feb 23, 2012.

  1. #1
    Hey guys

    do you want to share your Prediction with 2012 Elections!?
     
    Delton, Feb 23, 2012 IP
  2. JamesColin

    JamesColin Prominent Member Premium Member

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    #2
    I think Obama because he only ran one time as president and usually the president run two times. 4 years is very short.
     
    JamesColin, Feb 25, 2012 IP
  3. Rebecca

    Rebecca Notable Member

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    #3
    I'm not sure. But, I'll predict --

    Romney will be chosen as the Republican to run against Obama, and Obama will win four more years.
     
    Rebecca, Feb 27, 2012 IP
  4. Delton

    Delton Guest

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    #4
    i guess there is not to match to predict, right
     
    Delton, Feb 27, 2012 IP
  5. sunfyre7896

    sunfyre7896 Peon

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    #5
    I think there might be a difference in most of what I see in forums as to who they want and what might actually happen.
     
    sunfyre7896, Feb 28, 2012 IP
  6. tom.jeraldino

    tom.jeraldino Active Member

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    #6
    Support this opinion, Republicans don't have a decent rival to compete with Obama
     
    tom.jeraldino, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  7. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #7
    Last time getting elected was just a matter of blaming everything on Bush. With the crash of 2008 in full swing, nobody cared that many of the root causes had serious Dem fingerprints on 'em... they voted against the party that held the White House. The DNC could've run Mr Potato Head and won.

    Lotta time between now and the election, but skyrocketing gas prices and record low employment does not help an incumbent either. People don't vote for the incumbent party when they're financially strapped. That's a matter of record.

    Obama pledged to bring the "most transparent administration in history" to DC. Even left-wing watchdogs say that didn't happen. There's tarnish on the halo that wasnt there when Obama had no record. He also stated that if he didn't have the economy pretty well fixed by this time he would "be held accountable"... "it will be a 1-term proposition". He'll regret that interview come the general election.

    Obama's gameplan is to run against "a do-nothing Congress"... but he had a majority in both houses his first two years and in the senate the entire time. May be a tough sell... running against his own team. It's not going to be a cakewalk for either side, but so far I don't see Obama getting another try.

    BTW: Before replying... don't say I'm full of shit on the topic unless you're ready to make a little bet on the outcome. :)
     

    Attached Files:

    robjones, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  8. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #8
    I'd say a bet on either side of the outcome of this election would be like betting for a team because they are the home team, or your favorite team. As Karl Rove likes to say, we have the equivalent of several geological ages between now and election day. Before election day, Iran will have escalated quite a bit, congress will have had to approve another debt ceiling increase, Obamacare will be heard in front of the Supreme Court, and the price of a gallon of gas will likely have passed $5, and our fragile recovery will be impacted by all of that.


    Other than that, I have to agree it is going to be close, with another four years for Obama being anything but a given. In consideration of all that, there is definitely opportunity right now. Intrade has Obama at 60%, making a 20% gain on shares sold today a pretty safe bet. Too bad you need a foreign credit card, or wire transfer to get the account open.

    https://data.intrade.com/graphing/j...actId=743474&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com
     
    Obamanation, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  9. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #9
    Obama will be returned. The biggest reason is the Republicans have not put up a worthy candidate. The only thing going for Republicans is the fact people don't have to vote. Many will abstain and Republicans, who realise that, may win by default. If they can rally the people again then the Democrats will easily win again, with a huge majority imho.
     
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  10. ApocalypseXL

    ApocalypseXL Notable Member

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    #10
    Huge majority ... now that's rich . I wonder how many drugs one must do to see the world in extremist left way ?
     
    ApocalypseXL, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  11. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #11
    extremist left? burn down prisons? fire all police? bring on anarchy? simply for predicting Obama will win? I wonder if you actually believe you're clever when indeed you portray the exact opposite.
     
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  12. ApocalypseXL

    ApocalypseXL Notable Member

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    #12
    Don't like the word extremist ? Wanna be respected ? Then you can stop using it as well . I've never heard a liberal talk about the "right" only "extremist right" .

    Also if the left would fire all the police they be all dead in a matter of weeks :eek:
     
    ApocalypseXL, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  13. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #13
    I don't care what word you use, I just like truth. Is it possible you only hear 'extremist' right because people aren't too concerned about centrist views so they don't complain about their views? Left-leaning and right-leaning is possibly fine but extreme-left and extreme right is not in most people's views. Personally, i'm more a centre-left kind-of-guy and for you to call me "extremist" is crazy, and untrue. I don't like extremist anything.
     
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  14. Obamanation

    Obamanation Well-Known Member

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    #14
    You mean bigger than the whopping 52% that voted for Obama in 2008? LoL.

    In 2008 Obama wasn't even running against an incumbent. The party that had been in power was unpopular due to an economic crisis a long war in Afghanistan and an unpopular war in Iraq. His opponent was not well liked within his own party, and chose a completely inexperienced running mate. Like Rob said, in 2008 the Democrats could have run Mr. Potato head and won.

    The problem was, while you may win with Mr. Potato head (Barack Obama), you won't win by much. For 2012, Obama's only asset is incumbency. You seem to think the Republican feild is weak, but given Obama's last three years, without Obama's incumbency, the Republicans would be in the same position the Democrats were in 2008.
     
    Obamanation, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  15. ApocalypseXL

    ApocalypseXL Notable Member

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    #15
    Soooooo you just posted 2 replies because you don't care ? Seems legit .
     
    ApocalypseXL, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  16. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #16
    I agree with that too. Though I do think most people thought Obama would do wonders. Still, as I have said before, I don't think Obama has done that badly, given what he was handed and the state of play of present times.

    I see the UK is talking about privatising their police force now. This is something "I imagine" the Republicans there would push for too. Privatising everything they can, placing money higher than morals is what turns me off conservatives big-time.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/mar/02/police-privatisation-security-firms-crime
     
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  17. Bushranger

    Bushranger Well-Known Member

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    #17
    You are a serious joke. Not even worth correspondence with. Don't expect a reply from me any more.
     
    Bushranger, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  18. Rebecca

    Rebecca Notable Member

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    #18
    Sadly, I think that's what many Republicans are hoping for.
     
    Rebecca, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  19. jm07656

    jm07656 Guest

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    #19
    I think Obama is going to win 4 more years simply for the fact that there is a large division in the republican party. Also, Romney spends too much time trying to bash Obama instead of pressing the issues. Ron Paul is actually a very good candidate as well, and that would be nice to see him go head-to-head with Obama.
     
    jm07656, Mar 2, 2012 IP
  20. robjones

    robjones Notable Member

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    #20
    You quote a UK initiative, "imagine" US Republicans would hold that position... then go on to criticize them for it?

    Hopefully you realize that's a textbook example of the logical fallacy known as a strawman argument.
     
    robjones, Mar 2, 2012 IP