http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS According to NY time there's 5 toss ups in the senate, and 18 toss ups in the house. That's really not that much. I'm guessing around 1/2 of those tossups will go to the dems...maybe a little more. Either way I don't see both house being given to the dems...maybe neither. According to there BEST case scenario for democrats (ie sweep the tossups): it would be 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats. If the sweep the race it will be 53 democrats in the senate....but that's very unlikely. In the house if the dems sweep the tossups it would be 210 Republican vs 225 Democrat. The house might be close, but I think even this is not likely. I won't debate the dems sweeping the leaning republican house seats...I don't think there anything that remotely big changing on the horizon. In order to keep an even house, the repubs only have to maintain 20 of 21 leaning districts (even if they some how lost all tossups). That's really not inconceivable. Leaning districts usually don't switch over. What I'm saying is we'll see a lot of things even out a bit,...but I wouldn't expect more. Your thoughts?
I've liked: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ since the 2004 race. The owner leans left and the end result of the 2004 election was WAY off, but still, its good for trend analysis. If these idiot republicans in florida would have put someone else against Nelson, the seat might have been in contention; but nooooo
Bottom of the page shows the house. Its not well done, because the map is obviously modified from the presidential election, so it cannot show districts, only states. It says R's will keep a 3 seat majority right now, but who knows. Is that before or after the child molester last week?
I'm expecting the Democrats to take over one part of Congress. I won't be surprised to see a jail break and them take it all. The best thing the Republicans can do at this point is turn up the fear machine. If bad things start happening from now until election, they will stand a much better shot of keeping their power. My main worry is that we, because of knee-jerk voters, are going to shoot ourselves in the foot by giving the Democrats the Congress and the 2008 Presidency. We would have the same problems (having one party control both is not good), except the name tags would be different.
I don't want them to get the house, because once they do, I'm sure they'll legislate in amnesty/guestworker programs/immigration increases....that one issue alone makes me anti-dem....ehhh I'm not pro-repub, but atleast the house repubs aren't silly on this issue. Not perfect, but not insane.
With Frist being a dumb-ass the other day in Afghanistan (saying the Taliban should be part of the government); Republicans may as well not even campaign anymore. What's the point? The one issue where they were actually somewhat effective, they are surrendering themselves. Isn't that nice.
Ha! Until things went south...you could define the Repub party these last few years as doing whatever a small quartet of people in the White House were dictating: Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rove. The quartet received some help and background thinking from neo-con thinkers that were pushing attacking Iraq years ago. Now that the quartet is weakening....the rest of the republicans have to (tremble, tremble tremble)--think for themselves. Not easy for people trained as zombie followers. Now they are all over the map. If they keep coming out w/their own comments and thoughts....the repub candidates all the characteristics that you guys accuse of democratic candidates. LOL good luck
A split Congress with one party controlling the House and the other the Senate yet both sides being nearly evenly split would be a very good thing for the next two years. It would force them to work together to get things done and it would force Bush to work with Congress. Then we can straighten things out in the next election. Whatever happens I don't want to ever see the Whitehouse, the House and the Senate controlled by the same party ever again. This past six years has been a disaster because there were no real checks and balances except for the Supreme Court. I'd also like to see the Republican Party split into two different parties one for religious conservatives and the other for secular conservatives with not a single religious conservative item in the secular conservative agenda. Maybe the secular conservatives could break off some conservative and moderate Democrats and we could have three equally strong parties. Wishful thinking I know, but hey I can dream.